A.R.W. Elbers

Bio: A.R.W. Elbers is an academic researcher from Analysis Group. The author has contributed to research in topics: Transmission (mechanics) & Influenza A virus subtype H5N1. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 8 publications receiving 417 citations.

Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry

Abstract: Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.

Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry

Abstract: Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases like avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here we present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. We develop a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method enables us to identify high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of inter-farm distance. We show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza our analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. Our analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms

Pathogenic landscapes: Interactions between land, people, disease vectors, and their animal hosts

Abstract: Landscape attributes influence spatial variations in disease risk or incidence. We present a review of the key findings from eight case studies that we conducted in Europe and West Africa on the impact of land changes on emerging or re-emerging vector-borne diseases and/or zoonoses. The case studies concern West Nile virus transmission in Senegal, tick-borne encephalitis incidence in Latvia, sandfly abundance in the French Pyrenees, Rift Valley Fever in the Ferlo (Senegal), West Nile Fever and the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue, and rodent-borne Puumala hantavirus and Lyme borreliosis in Belgium. We identified general principles governing landscape epidemiology in these diverse disease systems and geographic regions. We formulated ten propositions that are related to landscape attributes, spatial patterns and habitat connectivity, pathways of pathogen transmission between vectors and hosts, scale issues, land use and ownership, and human behaviour associated with transmission cycles. A static view of the "pathogenecity" of landscapes overlays maps of the spatial distribution of vectors and their habitats, animal hosts carrying specific pathogens and their habitat, and susceptible human hosts and their land use. A more dynamic view emphasizing the spatial and temporal interactions between these agents at multiple scales is more appropriate. We also highlight the complementarity of the modelling approaches used in our case studies. Integrated analyses at the landscape scale allows a better understanding of interactions between changes in ecosystems and climate, land use and human behaviour, and the ecology of vectors and animal hosts of infectious agents.

Impact of Recent and Future Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases

Abstract: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.

Bionomics of Temperate and Tropical Culicoides Midges: Knowledge Gaps and Consequences for Transmission of Culicoides-Borne Viruses

Abstract: Culicoides midges are abundant hematophagous flies that vector arboviruses of veterinary and medical importance. Dramatic changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-borne arboviruses have occurred since 1998, including the emergence of exotic viruses in northern temperate regions, increases in global disease incidence, and enhanced virus diversity in tropical zones. Drivers may include changes in climate, land use, trade, and animal husbandry. New Culicoides species and new wild reservoir hosts have been implicated in transmission, highlighting the dynamic nature of pathogen-vector-host interactions. Focusing on potential vector species worldwide and key elements of vectorial capacity, we review the sensitivity of Culicoides life cycles to abiotic and biotic factors. We consider implications for designing control measures and understanding impacts of environmental change in different ecological contexts. Critical geographical, biological, and taxonomic knowledge gaps are prioritized. Recent developments in genomics and mathematical modeling may enhance ecological understanding of these complex arbovirus systems.

Unravelling transmission trees of infectious diseases by combining genetic and epidemiological data

Abstract: Knowledge on the transmission tree of an epidemic can provide valuable insights into disease dynamics. The transmission tree can be reconstructed by analysing either detailed epidemiological data (e.g. contact tracing) or, if sufficient genetic diversity accumulates over the course of the epidemic, genetic data of the pathogen. We present a likelihood-based framework to integrate these two data types, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees. We test the approach by applying it to temporal, geographical and genetic data on the 241 poultry farms infected in an epidemic of avian influenza A (H7N7) in The Netherlands in 2003. We show that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or epidemiological data alone. Furthermore, the estimated tree reveals the relative infectiousness of farms of different types and sizes.