Showing papers by "A. Townsend Peterson published in 2017"

Assessing Monkeypox Virus Prevalence in Small Mammals at the Human-Animal Interface in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Abstract: During 2012, 2013 and 2015, we collected small mammals within 25 km of the town of Boende in Tshuapa Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in this area is unknown; however, cases of human infection were previously confirmed near these collection sites. Samples were collected from 353 mammals (rodents, shrews, pangolins, elephant shrews, a potamogale, and a hyrax). Some rodents and shrews were captured from houses where human monkeypox cases have recently been identified, but most were trapped in forests and agricultural areas near villages. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to assess evidence of MPXV infection and other Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infections in these small mammals. Seven (2.0%) of these animal samples were found to be anti-orthopoxvirus immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody positive (six rodents: two Funisciurus spp.; one Graphiurus lorraineus; one Cricetomys emini; one Heliosciurus sp.; one Oenomys hypoxanthus, and one elephant shrew Petrodromus tetradactylus); no individuals were found positive in PCR-based assays. These results suggest that a variety of animals can be infected with OPXVs, and that epidemiology studies and educational campaigns should focus on animals that people are regularly contacting, including larger rodents used as protein sources.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

Abstract: Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Planning for conservation and restoration under climate and land use change in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Abstract: Aim To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%–34% of species’ distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity.

Ecological niche model comparison under different climate scenarios: a case study of Olea spp. in Asia

Abstract: Ecological niche modeling (and the related species distribution modeling) has been used as a tool with which to assess potential impacts of climate change processes on geographic distributions of species. However, the factors introducing variation into niche modeling outcomes are not well understood: To this end, we used seven algorithms to develop models (Maxent, GARP, BIOCLIM, artificial neural networks, support-vector machines, climate envelope, and environmental distance) to estimate the potential geographic distribution of olives (Olea europaea sensu lato, including Olea ferruginea) under two climatic data sets (current 2000 and future 2050). Five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios were used as predictor variables in future projections of the geographic potential of this species; models were fit at global extents (10′ spatial resolution) but transferred and interpreted for a region of particular interest in Central Asia, which largely avoids problems with truncation of niche estimates. We found marked differences among approaches in predicted distributions and model performance, as well as in the future distributional pattern reconstructed, from one algorithm to another. These general approaches, when model-to-model variation is managed appropriately, appear promising in predicting the potential geographic distribution of O. europaea sensu lato and thus can be an effective tool in restoration and conservation planning for wild populations, as well as possible commercial plantations of this species.

Do consensus models outperform individual models? Transferability evaluations of diverse modeling approaches for an invasive moth

Abstract: Transferability is key to many of the most novel and interesting applications of ecological niche models, such that maximizing predictive power of model transfers is crucial Here, we explored consensus methods as a means of reducing uncertainty and improving model transferability in anticipating the potential distribution of an invasive moth (Hyphantria cunea) Individual native-range niche models were calibrated using seven modelling algorithms and four environmental datasets, representing different degrees of dimensionality, spatial correlation, and ecological relevance, and showing different degrees of climate niche expansion Four consensus methods were used to combine individual niche models; we assessed transferability of consensus models and the individual models used to generate them The results suggested that ideal criteria for environmental variable selection vary among algorithms, as different algorithms showed different sensitivities to spatial dimensionality and correlation Consensus models reflected the central tendency of individual models, and reduced uncertainty by consolidating consistency across individual models, but did not outperform individual models The question of whether interpolation accuracy comes at the expense of transferability suggests caution in planning methodologies for processing niche models to predict invasive potential These explorations outline approaches by which to reduce uncertainty and improve niche model transferability with vital implications for ensemble forecasting

Accessible Areas in Ecological Niche Comparisons of Invasive Species: Recognized but Still Overlooked

Abstract: Understanding biological invasions is crucial for their control and prevention. Specially, establishing whether invasive species operate within the constraint of conservative ecological niches, or if niche shifts occur at all commonly as part of the invasion process, is indispensable to identifying and anticipating potential areas of invasion. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) has been used to address such questions, but improvements and debate in study design, model evaluation, and methods are still needed to mature this field. We reanalyze data for Gray Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis), native to North America, but invasive in Europe. Our main finding was that, when the analysis extent is established carefully based on analogous sets of environmental conditions, all evidence of niche shifts disappears, suggesting that previous reports of niche shifts for this species are artifacts of methods and interpretation, rather than biological reality. Niche conservatism should be tested only within appropriate, similar, environmental spaces that are accessible to both species or populations being compared, thus avoiding model extrapolation related to model transfers. Testing for environmental similarity between native and invaded areas is critical to identifying niche shifts during species invasion robustly, but also in applications of ENM to understanding temporal dimensions of niche dynamics.

Diferencias conceptuales entre modelación de nichos y modelación de áreas de distribución

Abstract: Las ideas de modelar nichos de especies y modelar areas de distribucion, por alguna razon se confunde terminologicamente. Los terminos " Species Distribution Models (SDM), y " Ecological Niche Models " (ENM) son muy frecuentemente considerados sinonimos. Dejando de lado el problema puramente semantico, la modelacion de nichos y la modelacion de areas de distribucion, estrictamente, son actividades relacionadas pero claramente distintas. En esta contribucion aclaramos estas diferencias, presentando algunos ejemplos.

Phylogeography of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

Abstract: Rift Valley Fever is an acute zoonotic viral disease caused by Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) that affects ruminants and humans in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. We used phylogenetic analyses to understand the demographic history of RVFV populations, using sequence data from the three minigenomic segments of the virus. We used phylogeographic approaches to infer RVFV historical movement patterns across its geographic range, and to reconstruct transitions among host species. Results revealed broad circulation of the virus in East Africa, with many lineages originating in Kenya. Arrival of RVFV in Madagascar resulted from three major waves of virus introduction: the first from Zimbabwe, and the second and third from Kenya. The two major outbreaks in Egypt since 1977 possibly resulted from a long-distance introduction from Zimbabwe during the 1970s, and a single introduction took RVFV from Kenya to Saudi Arabia. Movement of the virus between Kenya and Sudan, and CAR and Zimbabwe, was in both directions. Viral populations in West Africa appear to have resulted from a single introduction from Central African Republic. The overall picture of RVFV history is thus one of considerable mobility, and dynamic evolution and biogeography, emphasizing its invasive potential, potentially more broadly than its current distributional limits.

Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China

Abstract: Background The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. Methodology/ Principal findings In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. Conclusions/Significance The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050–2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080–2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China.

Integrating morphology, phylogeography, and ecological niche modeling to explore population differentiation in North African Common Chaffinches

Abstract: Diagnosing distinct evolutionary taxa requires careful assessment of genetic, morphological, ecological, and behavioral variation within and among populations. In this study, data on phenotype (mensural and plumage coloration), genotype (mitochondrial DNA control-region sequences), and distributional projections derived from ecological niche models, were used to investigate population differentiation of North African Common Chaffinches. Results showed substantial genetic variation among populations, mostly (~56 %) distributed between Libyan populations and other North African populations, rather than within populations. Isolation-by-distance analysis indicated severely restricted gene flow between populations. Historical demographic analyses indicate that population expansion began before the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with ecological niche model paleoprojections; interestingly, differentiation of the Libyan population (Fringilla coelebs harterti) apparently did not take place under the last glacial conditions. Hence, although its taxonomic status must await robust testing using multilocus DNA data, this population is an important element in the conservation of bird diversity in North Africa.

Automated identification of insect vectors of Chagas disease in Brazil and Mexico: the Virtual Vector Lab.

Abstract: Identification of arthropods important in disease transmission is a crucial, yet difficult, task that can demand considerable training and experience. An important case in point is that of the 150+ species of Triatominae, vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, causative agent of Chagas disease across the Americas. We present a fully automated system that is able to identify triatomine bugs from Mexico and Brazil with an accuracy consistently above 80%, and with considerable potential for further improvement. The system processes digital photographs from a photo apparatus into landmarks, and uses ratios of measurements among those landmarks, as well as (in a preliminary exploration) two measurements that approximate aspects of coloration, as the basis for classification. This project has thus produced a working prototype that achieves reasonably robust correct identification rates, although many more developments can and will be added, and-more broadly-the project illustrates the value of multidisciplinary collaborations in resolving difficult and complex challenges.

Spatio-temporal dynamic of suitable areas for species conservation in West Africa: eight economically important wild palms under present and future climates

Abstract: Sustainable conservation of tropical resources required understanding of their distribution for effective assessment and definition of conservation priorities. In tropical areas, wild palms are highly valued keystone resources with growing demand for both subsistence uses and commercial trade. Here we focused on eight such species (Borassus aethiopum Mart., Eremospatha macrocarpa (G.Mann & H.Wendl.) H.Wendl., Hyphaene thebaica Mart., Laccosperma opacum (G.Mann & H.Wendl.) Drude, Phoenix reclinata Jacq., Raphia hookeri G.Mann & H.Wendl., Raphia sudanica A. Chev., and Raphia vinifera P.Beauv.). This study tested (i) how those palms distributions may be affected under future climate scenarios, and (ii) if species are effectively conserved currently and under future forecasts for their native distributional areas. Finally, we defined spatial priorities for the species’ conservation. Available bioclimatic and soil data layers were used for the modelling with maximum entropy approaches, and resulting maps were overlaid on the existing protected areas network. Results showed that much of the distribution of the species will remain largely stable, albeit with some expansion and retraction in some species; relationships with protected areas networks suggest that protected portions of species distributions will also remain stable. The areas identified as highest conservation priority differ between models even though the highest-priority areas holding most palm species are located along the coast (from Guinea to Nigeria). Further development of these analyses could aid in forming a more complete picture of the distributions and populations of the species, which in turn could aid in developing effective conservation strategies for this botanically important family.

Potential distribution of mosquito vector species in a primary malaria endemic region of Colombia

Abstract: Rapid transformation of natural ecosystems changes ecological conditions for important human disease vector species; therefore, an essential task is to identify and understand the variables that shape distributions of these species to optimize efforts toward control and mitigation. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate the potential distribution and to assess hypotheses of niche similarity among the three main malaria vector species in northern Colombia: Anopheles nuneztovari, An. albimanus, and An. darlingi. Georeferenced point collection data and remotely sensed, fine-resolution satellite imagery were integrated across the Uraba -Bajo Cauca-Alto Sinu malaria endemic area using a maximum entropy algorithm. Results showed that An. nuneztovari has the widest geographic distribution, occupying almost the entire study region; this niche breadth is probably related to the ability of this species to colonize both, natural and disturbed environments. The model for An. darlingi showed that most suitable localities for this species in Bajo Cauca were along the Cauca and Nechi river. The riparian ecosystems in this region and the potential for rapid adaptation by this species to novel environments, may favor the establishment of populations of this species. Apparently, the three main Colombian Anopheles vector species in this endemic area do not occupy environments either with high seasonality, or with low seasonality and high NDVI values. Estimated overlap in geographic space between An. nuneztovari and An. albimanus indicated broad spatial and environmental similarity between these species. An. nuneztovari has a broader niche and potential distribution. Dispersal ability of these species and their ability to occupy diverse environmental situations may facilitate sympatry across many environmental and geographic contexts. These model results may be useful for the design and implementation of malaria species-specific vector control interventions optimized for this important malaria region.

Predictable invasion dynamics in North American populations of the Eurasian collared dove Streptopelia decaocto.

Abstract: Species invasions represent a significant dimension of global change yet the dynamics of invasions remain poorly understood and are considered rather unpredictable. We explored interannual dynamics of the invasion process in the Eurasian collared dove ( Streptopelia decaocto ) and tested whether the advance of the invasion front of the species in North America relates to centrality (versus peripherality) within its estimated fundamental ecological niche. We used ecological niche modelling approaches to estimate the dimensions of the fundamental ecological niche on the Old World distribution of the species, and then transferred that model to the New World as measures of centrality versus peripherality within the niche for the species. Although our hypothesis was that the invasion front would advance faster over more favourable (i.e. more central) conditions, the reverse was the case: the invasion expanded faster in areas presenting less favourable (i.e. more peripheral) conditions for the species as it advanced across North America. This result offers a first view of a predictive approach to the dynamics of species9 invasions, and thereby has relevant implications for the management of invasive species, as such a predictive understanding would allow better anticipation of coming steps and advances in the progress of invasions, important to designing and guiding effective remediation and mitigation efforts.

Identification of potential areas for wild palm cultivation in the Republic of Benin through remote sensing and ecological niche modeling

Abstract: Wild palms contribute significantly to food security and local economy in tropical areas, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In light of this importance, eight palm species were explored [Borassus aethiopum (L.) Mart, Eremospatha macrocarpa (G. Mann et H. Wendl.) H. Wendl., Laccosperma opacum (G. Mann et H. Wendl.) Drude, Hyphaene thebaica (L.) Mart, Phoenix reclinata Jacq., Raphia hookeri G. Mann et H. Wendl., R. sudanica A. Chev., and R. vinifera P. Beauv.] as targets for conservation, domestication, and cultivation in Benin. Cultivation potential was evaluated in a coarse-resolution, first-pass effort using ecological niche models to relate known occurrences of each species to vegetation indices (VEG), gross primary productivity (GPP), and soil characteristics (SOIL), and model outputs were related to human distribution and land-use patterns. Results showed that wild palms responded differentially to different suites of environmental factors: some species showed best model performance with VEG + GPP + SOIL, others with GPP + SOIL or VEG + GPP, or with a single factor. Two species had broad potential distributions across the country; others had potential areas in the north (2 species) or the south (4 species). Raphia hookeri and R. vinifera showed greatest overlap in terms of ecology and distribution, whereas L. opacum and R. sudanica had the lowest similarity. These models constitute initial steps toward a sustainable scheme for planning exploration of the possibility of cultivation of these species.

The Geographic Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Revisited: The Importance of Assumptions About Error Balance.

Abstract: The black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is the primary vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, a spirochete that causes Lyme disease, in eastern North America. Lyme disease risk has generally been considered to be focused in the Northeast and the northern Midwest in the United States, yet the distribution of the vector extends considerably more broadly. A recent analysis of the distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling approaches painted an odd biogeographic picture, in which the species is distributed in a "rimming" distribution across the northern Midwest and Northeast, and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the eastern United States, but not broadly in the interior of eastern North America. Here, we reanalyze the situation for this species, and demonstrate that the distribution estimated in the previous study was a consequence of assumptions about relative weights applied to different error types. A more appropriate error weighting scheme for niche modeling analyses, in which omission error is prioritized over commission error, shows a simpler distribution, in which the species ranges continuously across eastern North America; this distributional pattern is supported by independent occurrence data from the eastern Great Plains, in Kansas. We discuss implications for public health planning and intervention across the region, as well as for developing effective and predictive maps of vector distributions and pathogen transmission risk.

Mexican land birds reveal complexity in fine‐scale patterns of endemism

Abstract: Fil: Bertelli, Sara Beatriz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico - Tucuman. Unidad Ejecutora Lillo; Argentina

Ecological and historical views of the diversification of Geositta miners (Aves: Furnariidae: Sclerurinae)

Abstract: Diverse historical and ecological factors determine and drive diversification of vertebrate lineages. Historical factors (e.g., orogenic movements) are expected to act on coarser spatial and temporal scales than contemporary ecological factors (e.g., climate and biotic interactions). However, distinctions between such scales remain arbitrary, and yet are important to understanding which factors acted in the emergence of new species. We inferred ancestral states for climatic niches on ecological scales, and ancestral area reconstructions for the genus Geositta on deeper time scales. Ecological niches did not overlap more between sister species than among more distant relatives, and rather pointed to a plastic scenario for climatic diversification of Geositta rather than niche conservatism. Events temporally associated with the formation of the Andes (Miocene) seem to explain most of the diversification. In sum, climatic factors may not have had a great influence in the diversification of Geositta, at least in the context of Pleistocene climate fluctuations.

Problems with reductive, polygon-based methods for estimating species' ranges: reply to Pimm et al. 2017.

Abstract: With colleagues, I critiqued reductive, polygon-based methods for estimating species’ geographic ranges (Peterson et al. 2016). This approach was used in numerous on-the-ground conservation-planning exercises (see, e.g., Ocampo-Peñuela et al. [2016] and references therein), and I appreciate the authors’ desire for practicality and agree that identification of potential habitat based on remotely sensed data may improve local-scale planning and decision making. However, I am concerned about the robustness of their mapping approaches in finescale applications to conservation planning. My colleagues and I presented a case study (Blackthroated Jay [Cyanolyca pumilo]) that we explicitly described as “a partial, preliminary example” (Peterson et al. 2016). Pimm et al. (2017) correctly point out that our occurrence data could have been vetted more carefully and model predictions explored in greater detail. A fully developed model, however, was not our goal. Rather, we wished to present an example of a data-driven approach as a counterpoint to their assumption-driven approaches. Unfortunately, in their rebuttal, Pimm et al. (2017) focused entirely on the example rather than on our general points. I therefore comment on 3 general points: the appropriateness of their use of IUCN extentof-occurrence maps as a starting point; problems with the assumptions their method requires; and the perils of developing such analyses at overly fine spatial resolutions.

Reconstructing the geographic origin of the New World jays

Abstract: We conducted a biogeographic analysis based on a dense phylogenetic hypothesis for the early branches of corvids, to assess geographic origin of the New World jay (NWJ) clade. We produced a multilocus phylogeny from sequences of three nuclear introns and three mitochondrial genes and included at least one species from each NWJ genus and 29 species representing the rest of the five corvid subfamilies in the analysis. We used the S-DIVA, S-DEC, and BBM analyses implemented in RASP to create biogeographic reconstructions, and BEAST to estimate timing of NWJ diversification. Biogeographic reconstructions indicated that NWJs originated from an ancestor in the Eastern Palearctic or Eastern + Western Palearctic, diversified in Mesoamerica and spread subsequently to North and South America; the group has been diversifying in the New World since the late Miocene.

The Leading Edge of the Geographic Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae).

Abstract: Dear Editor, A recent paper by Hahn et al. (2016) modeled and mapped the geographic distribution of the tick Ixodes scapularis Say, the primary vector of several pathogens in eastern North America. Because their results indicated an unexpectedly small distributional area for the species, we (Peterson and Raghavan 2017) developed a partial reanalysis and showed that the model-predicted distributional extent depended to a large degree on methods for thresholding models into binary results. Hahn et al. (2017) then responded to our critique. Here, we present a brief further response, with the aim of clarifying the aims of the overall exercise. Although Hahn et al. (2016) presented some methodological variations and focused on differences between the two modeling protocols, our model predictions were closely similar to theirs when we followed their assumptions about thresholding. As a result, we do not believe that the difference has to do with methodology, but rather with conceptual framework and interpretation. Hahn et al. (2017) stated that their purpose had been “. . . to better define the leading edge of the tick’s ongoing geographic expansion.” We assert that they have not made the appropriate assumptions to this end: that is, they accepted greater omission error, which reduced the area identified as suitable to the very conservative, “rimming” distributional estimate that they had originally reported. If the primary purpose is to define the “leading edge” of the species’ distribution, a more liberal, lower threshold would be in order. It is important to note that this issue is not simply one of different thresholding assumptions including more or less area within model predictions. If large-scale differences exist in abundances (or at least in the sampling and reporting) of tick populations in marginal regions, these marginal regions (or marginally sampled regions) are systematically removed by the higher thresholds that Hahn et al. (2017) advocate. That is, assumptions and choices regarding thresholds on model predictions must be established based on conceptual frameworks, rather than on convenience (Peterson et al. 2011). The definition of a fundamental ecological niche is an inclusive set of conditions under which the species is able to maintain populations without immigrational subsidy (Peterson et al. 2011). Clearly, the center of abundance of this species is not at the western edge of its distribution, but just as clearly, the species’ distribution extends much farther west than the model predictions that Hahn et al. (2016) presented would indicate (see numerous records in Eisen et al. 2016). The distribution of abundance of the species across this distributional area is of course interesting and relevant, and can be examined via other classes of models in distributional ecology (Mart ınez-Meyer et al. 2012). However, the “leading edge” of the distribution of I. scapularis is at a longitude of about 98 W, rather than much farther to the east; this broader range is reflected in the transmission of pathogens and cases of canine and human Lyme disease in many regions (Bacon et al. 2008) that were indicated by the Hahn et al. (2016) models as unsuitable (compare panels A and B in their Figure 3). Over the years, I. scapularis has been collected consistently as far west as central Kansas, both by flag and dragging methods and from sentinel species (e.g., white-tailed deer) by us and other researchers, albeit in small numbers; appropriate models aimed at locating the leading edge of the distribution of the species should include these areas, as the tick is certainly present and important in public health and policy-making there. Although we two are based in Kansas, this discord between presence of the tick and transmission of Borrelia versus the Hahn et al. (2016) model results has broad, sweeping public health implications: the “leading edge” of the distribution of the species is in the central United States, and the distribution of this tick species covers much of the eastern United States.

Fatiga de vigilancia (fatigatio vigilantiae) durante epidemias

Abstract: This manuscript presents the concept of "surveillance fatigue" (fatigatio vigilantiae), to describe an epidemiological scenario of an evident underreporting of cases during overwhelming epidemics We revised past epidemics and found that surveillance fatigue is a common pattern, thus, it may be a useful concept in modern epidemiology

How open access is crucial to the future of science

Abstract: A commentary published recently in The Journal of Wildlife Management argued that open access publication has strong negative implications for the future of science. Unfortunately, that commentary was founded in serious and deep misconceptions about the distinctions between open access, commercial, and society publications, and the rigor of peer review in open access journals. To the contrary, open access responds more appropriately than traditional closed publishing venues to the needs and participation of an increasingly global scholarly research community, and peer review by a broader community may in many cases be more rigorous, responding to the increasingly interdisciplinary nature of modern research. We respectfully suggest that The Wildlife Society consider a transition from closed access to open access for The Journal of Wildlife Management, as a means of optimizing and maximizing its role in communications in the field. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Introducción a los Análisis Espaciales con Énfasis en Modelos de Nicho Ecológico

Abstract: En 2016 implementamos un sistema de seminarios de ensenanza, en formato de videos libres y accesibles desde internet, con la finalidad de dar a conocer de forma sencilla y en castellano, las bases conceptuales y aplicaciones de los modelos de nicho ecologico en estudios de ecologia, conservacion biologica, epidemiologia y agrobiodviersidad, asi como su implementacion para el diseno de politicas publicas de los recursos naturales. Cada seminario fue desarrollado por uno o varios expertos discutiendo conceptos, metodos y diferentes herramientas disponibles para elaborar modelos de distribucion de especies. Este manuscrito reune los resumenes de cada uno de los seminarios en linea, dando referencias clave para cada tema y el enlace al video correspondiente. Los videos estan disponibles de forma libre en YouTube o en formato .mp4 bajo solicitud.

Botanical Sampling Gaps Across the Cameroon Mountains

Abstract: With the emergence of a new field, biodiversity informatics, an important task has been to evaluate completeness of biodiversity information that is existing and available for various countries and regions. This paper offers a first and very basic assessment of sampling gaps and inventory completeness across the Cameroon Mountains. Because digital accessible knowledge is severely limited for the region, we relied on qualitative evaluations of inventory completeness, supplemented by large amounts of data from the National Herbarium of Cameroon (YA) database. Detailed botanical inventories have been developed for Mt Cameroon, the Kupe-Mwanenguba Mountains, Mt Oku, and the Mambila Plateau, leaving substantial geographic and environmental coverage gaps corresponding to Rumpi Hills, Mt Nlonako, Kimbi Fungom National Park, Bali and Bafut Ngemba, Mt Bamboutos, Kagwene, and Tchabal Mbabo. This paper provides a roadmap for a comprehensive botanical survey for this region. Completing this survey plan, the resulting data will allow researchers to track changes in biodiversity and identify priority areas for conservation on the various mountain ranges that make up this important biodiversity hotspot.

Testing environmental correlates of clines in clades: an example from cassidine beetles.

Abstract: Phenotypic change across environmental gradients has been an important topic in evolutionary biology. Members of the tortoise beetle tribe Dorynotini are characterised by an elytral suture adorned with either a tubercle or a large, vertical spine. Overall spine height across species had previously been posited to exhibit a latitudinal gradient of increasing height and decreasing width towards the southern extreme of the tribe's range, and this pattern had been linked to environmental variation. We explore the evidence behind such a cline by testing associations between climate and morphology across the clade's geographic distribution using an approach based on ecological niche modelling (ENM) and morphological and environmental hypervolumes. The degree of overlap between the respective hypervolumes was assessed, and the correlation of matrix overlap values was quantified using Mantel tests. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism at the genus level were also assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances. Overall, we observed that characters defining our morphological hypervolumes were informative, and capable of grouping taxa into discrete units in morphospace. In contrast, environmental hypervolumes were largely homogeneous across the tribe, with high overlap among taxa. No significant correlations were found between environmental and morphological hypervolumes. Our results indicate that morphological divergence occurs along with high levels of environmental overlap; perhaps historical biogeographic factors along with sexual selection may have promoted its diversification. Our approach based on ENM and statistical comparisons between environmental and morphological hypervolumes can provide a useful approach to testing the existence of gradients and clines.

Preliminary risk maps for transmission of kyasanur forest disease in Southern India.

Abstract: Kyasanur forest disease is known to be transmitted across forested regions of Southern India. The disease appears to be hosted in wild mammals and transmitted by tick vectors although the diversity and identity of host and vector species remain unclear. The area across which risk exists of contracting the disease through transfer from the hosts or vectors, however, has never been mapped in detail, such that the area that surveillance, education, and investment in diagnostic facilities should cover remains unknown. This contribution uses known occurrences of the disease from the year 2000 till date to create and test a correlational ecological niche model that translates into preliminary transmission risk maps, which are summarized in terms of risk presented in each district in the region, as well as across peninsular India.