Showing papers by "Abraham D. Flaxman published in 2014"
University of Washington1, Sapienza University of Rome2, Mekelle University3, University of Texas at San Antonio4, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences5, Debre markos University6, Emory University7, University of Oxford8, University of Cartagena9, United Nations Population Fund10, University of Birmingham11, Stanford University12, Aga Khan University13, University of Melbourne14, National Taiwan University15, University of Cambridge16, University of California, San Diego17, Public Health Foundation of India18, Public Health England19, University of Peradeniya20, Harvard University21, National Institutes of Health22, Tehran University of Medical Sciences23, Auckland University of Technology24, University of Sheffield25, University of Western Australia26, Karolinska Institutet27, Birzeit University28, Brandeis University29, American Cancer Society30, Ochsner Medical Center31, Yonsei University32, University of Bristol33, Heidelberg University34, Vanderbilt University35, South African Medical Research Council36, Jordan University of Science and Technology37, New Generation University College38, Northeastern University39, Simmons College40, Norwegian Institute of Public Health41, Boston University42, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention43, University of Bari44, University of São Paulo45, University of Otago46, University of Crete47, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh48, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center49, Teikyo University50, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre51, University of Tokyo52, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health53, Heriot-Watt University54, University of Alabama at Birmingham55, Griffith University56, National Center for Disease Control and Public Health57, University of California, Irvine58, Johns Hopkins University59, New York University60, University of Queensland61, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais62, National Research University – Higher School of Economics63, University of Bergen64, Columbia University65, Shandong University66, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill67, Fujita Health University68, Korea University69, Chongqing Medical University70, Zhejiang University71
TL;DR: The global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013 is estimated using a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
9,180 citations
Christopher J L Murray1, Katrina F Ortblad1, Caterina Guinovart1, Stephen S Lim1 +367 more•Institutions (179)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.
875 citations
TL;DR: The global burden of IHD increased by 29 million disability-adjusted life-years (29% increase) between 1990 and 2010 as discussed by the authors, which was attributed to aging of the population.
Abstract: Background—Ischemic heart disease (IHD) burden consists of years of life lost from IHD deaths and years of disability lived with 3 nonfatal IHD sequelae: nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and ischemic heart failure. Our aim was to estimate the global and regional burden of IHD in 1990 and 2010. Methods and Results—Global and regional estimates of acute myocardial infarction incidence and angina and heart failure prevalence by age, sex, and world region in 1990 and 2010 were estimated based on data from a systematic review and nonlinear mixed-effects meta-regression methods. Age-standardized acute myocardial infarction incidence and angina prevalence decreased globally between 1990 and 2010; ischemic heart failure prevalence increased slightly. The global burden of IHD increased by 29 million disability-adjusted life-years (29% increase) between 1990 and 2010. About 32.4% of the growth in global IHD disability-adjusted life-years between 1990 and 2010 was attributable to aging of the w...
526 citations
TL;DR: Opioid dependence is a substantial contributor to the global disease burden; its contribution to premature mortality (relative to prevalence) varies geographically, with North America, eastern Europe and southern sub-Saharan Africa most strongly affected.
Abstract: AIMS
To estimate the prevalence and burden of disease attributable to opioid dependence globally, regionally and at country level.
METHODS
Multiple search strategies: (i) peer-reviewed literature searches; (ii) systematic searches of online databases; (iii) internet searches; (iv) consultation and feedback from experts. Culling and data extraction followed protocols. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. Disability weight for opioid dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs). Opioid dependence premature mortality was computed as years of life lost (YLLs) and summed with YLDs to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
RESULTS
There were 15.5 million opioid-dependent people globally in 2010 [0.22%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 0.20-0.25%]. Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (0.30%, 95% UI = 0.27-0.35%) than females (0.14%, 95% UI = 0.12-0.16%), and peaked at 25-29 years. Prevalence was higher than the global pooled prevalence in Australasia (0.46%, 95% UI = 0.41-0.53%), western Europe (0.35%, 95% UI = 0.32-0.39) and North America (0.30%, 95% UI = 0.25-0.36). Opioid dependence was estimated to account for 9.2 million DALYs globally (0.37% of global DALYs) in 2010, a 73% increase on DALYs estimated in 1990. Regions with the highest opioid dependence DALY rates were North America (292.1 per 100 000), eastern Europe (288.4 per 100 000), Australasia (278.6 per 100 000) and southern sub-Saharan Africa (263.5 per 100 000). The contribution of YLLs to opioid dependence burden was particularly high in North America, eastern Europe and southern sub-Saharan Africa.
CONCLUSION
Opioid dependence is a substantial contributor to the global disease burden; its contribution to premature mortality (relative to prevalence) varies geographically, with North America, eastern Europe and southern sub-Saharan Africa most strongly affected.
292 citations
TL;DR: County-level estimates of cigarette smoking prevalence provide a unique opportunity to assess where prevalence remains high and where progress has been slow, and provide the data needed to better develop and implement strategies at a local and at a state level to further reduce the burden imposed by cigarette smoking.
Abstract: Cigarette smoking is a leading risk factor for morbidity and premature mortality in the United States, yet information about smoking prevalence and trends is not routinely available below the state level, impeding local-level action. We used data on 4.7 million adults age 18 and older from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1996 to 2012. We derived cigarette smoking status from self-reported data in the BRFSS and applied validated small area estimation methods to generate estimates of current total cigarette smoking prevalence and current daily cigarette smoking prevalence for 3,127 counties and county equivalents annually from 1996 to 2012. We applied a novel method to correct for bias resulting from the exclusion of the wireless-only population in the BRFSS prior to 2011. Total cigarette smoking prevalence varies dramatically between counties, even within states, ranging from 9.9% to 41.5% for males and from 5.8% to 40.8% for females in 2012. Counties in the South, particularly in Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, as well as those with large Native American populations, have the highest rates of total cigarette smoking, while counties in Utah and other Western states have the lowest. Overall, total cigarette smoking prevalence declined between 1996 and 2012 with a median decline across counties of 0.9% per year for males and 0.6% per year for females, and rates of decline for males and females in some counties exceeded 3% per year. Statistically significant declines were concentrated in a relatively small number of counties, however, and more counties saw statistically significant declines in male cigarette smoking prevalence (39.8% of counties) than in female cigarette smoking prevalence (16.2%). Rates of decline varied by income level: counties in the top quintile in terms of income experienced noticeably faster declines than those in the bottom quintile. County-level estimates of cigarette smoking prevalence provide a unique opportunity to assess where prevalence remains high and where progress has been slow. These estimates provide the data needed to better develop and implement strategies at a local and at a state level to further reduce the burden imposed by cigarette smoking.
156 citations
University of Washington1, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation2, Johns Hopkins University3, Public Health Foundation of India4, Brigham and Women's Hospital5, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation6, Harvard University7, The George Institute for Global Health8, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine9, Cornell University10, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences11, University of Queensland12, University of Melbourne13
TL;DR: Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death and Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.
Abstract: Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.
146 citations
TL;DR: Dependence upon psychostimulant dependent people is a substantial contributor to global disease burden; the contribution of cocaine and amphetamines to this burden varies dramatically by geographic region.
130 citations
TL;DR: The ways in which current health information systems can support generating estimates of effective Coverage are discussed and the concept of effective coverage is reviewed.
Abstract: A major challenge in monitoring universal health coverage (UHC) is identifying an indicator that can adequately capture the multiple components underlying the UHC initiative. Effective coverage, which unites individual and intervention characteristics into a single metric, offers a direct and flexible means to measure health system performance at different levels. We view effective coverage as a relevant and actionable metric for tracking progress towards achieving UHC. In this paper, we review the concept of effective coverage and delineate the three components of the metric — need, use, and quality — using several examples. Further, we explain how the metric can be used for monitoring interventions at both local and global levels. We also discuss the ways that current health information systems can support generating estimates of effective coverage. We conclude by recognizing some of the challenges associated with producing estimates of effective coverage. Despite these challenges, effective coverage is a powerful metric that can provide a more nuanced understanding of whether, and how well, a health system is delivering services to its populations.
130 citations
TL;DR: This article used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics to estimate global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010.
Abstract: Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three-fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8-2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1-7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates.
60 citations
TL;DR: It is found that under-5 mortality is highly variable within Zambia: there was a 1.8-fold difference between the lowest and highest levels in 2010, and declines over the period 1980 to 2010 ranged from less than 5% to more than 50%.
37 citations
TL;DR: A four-university collaboration to estimate mortality attributable to the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq, including both direct and indirect deaths, finds that most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes.