Adnan Moussalli

Bio: Adnan Moussalli is an academic researcher from Museum Victoria. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Ctenophorus decresii. The author has an hindex of 25, co-authored 42 publications receiving 4130 citations. Previous affiliations of Adnan Moussalli include University of KwaZulu-Natal & University of the Witwatersrand.

A brief guide to model selection, multimodel inference and model averaging in behavioural ecology using Akaike’s information criterion.

Abstract: Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) is increasingly being used in analyses in the field of ecology. This measure allows one to compare and rank multiple competing models and to estimate which of them best approximates the “true” process underlying the biological phenomenon under study. Behavioural ecologists have been slow to adopt this statistical tool, perhaps because of unfounded fears regarding the complexity of the technique. Here, we provide, using recent examples from the behavioural ecology literature, a simple introductory guide to AIC: what it is, how and when to apply it and what it achieves. We discuss multimodel inference using AIC—a procedure which should be used where no one model is strongly supported. Finally, we highlight a few of the pitfalls and problems that can be encountered by novice practitioners.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Abstract: Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Camouflage, communication and thermoregulation: lessons from colour changing organisms

Abstract: Organisms capable of rapid physiological colour change have become model taxa in the study of camouflage because they are able to respond dynamically to the changes in their visual environment. Here, we briefly review the ways in which studies of colour changing organisms have contributed to our understanding of camouflage and highlight some unique opportunities they present. First, from a proximate perspective, comparison of visual cues triggering camouflage responses and the visual perception mechanisms involved can provide insight into general visual processing rules. Second, colour changing animals can potentially tailor their camouflage response not only to different backgrounds but also to multiple predators with different visual capabilities. We present new data showing that such facultative crypsis may be widespread in at least one group, the dwarf chameleons. From an ultimate perspective, we argue that colour changing organisms are ideally suited to experimental and comparative studies of evolutionary interactions between the three primary functions of animal colour patterns: camouflage; communication; and thermoregulation.

Selection for Social Signalling Drives the Evolution of Chameleon Colour Change

Abstract: Rapid colour change is a remarkable natural phenomenon that has evolved in several vertebrate and invertebrate lineages. The two principal explanations for the evolution of this adaptive strategy are (1) natural selection for crypsis (camouflage) against a range of different backgrounds and (2) selection for conspicuous social signals that maximise detectability to conspecifics, yet minimise exposure to predators because they are only briefly displayed. Here we show that evolutionary shifts in capacity for colour change in southern African dwarf chameleons (Bradypodion spp.) are associated with increasingly conspicuous signals used in male contests and courtship. To the chameleon visual system, species showing the most dramatic colour change display social signals that contrast most against the environmental background and amongst adjacent body regions. We found no evidence for the crypsis hypothesis, a finding reinforced by visual models of how both chameleons and their avian predators perceive chameleon colour variation. Instead, our results suggest that selection for conspicuous social signals drives the evolution of colour change in this system, supporting the view that transitory display traits should be under strong selection for signal detectability.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: some background, observations, and comparisons

Abstract: We briefly outline the information-theoretic (I-T) approaches to valid inference including a review of some simple methods for making formal inference from all the hypotheses in the model set (multimodel inference). The I-T approaches can replace the usual t tests and ANOVA tables that are so inferentially limited, but still commonly used. The I-T methods are easy to compute and understand and provide formal measures of the strength of evidence for both the null and alternative hypotheses, given the data. We give an example to highlight the importance of deriving alternative hypotheses and representing these as probability models. Fifteen technical issues are addressed to clarify various points that have appeared incorrectly in the recent literature. We offer several remarks regarding the future of empirical science and data analysis under an I-T framework.

Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the Quaternary.

Abstract: An appreciation of the scale and frequency of climatic oscillations in the past few million years is modifying our views on how evolution proceeds. Such major events caused extinction and repeated changes in the ranges of those taxa that survived. Their spatial effects depend on latitude and topography, with extensive extinction and recolonization in higher latitudes and altitudinal shifts and complex refugia nearer the tropics. The associated population dynamics varied with life history and geography, and the present genetic constitution of the populations and species carry attenuated signals of these past dynamics. Phylogeographic studies with DNA have burgeoned recently and studies are reviewed from the arctic, temperate and tropical regions, seeking commonalities of cause in the resulting genetic patterns. Arctic species show distinct shallow genetic clades with common geographical boundaries. Thus Beringia is distinct phylogeographically, but its role as a refugial source is complex. Arctic taxa do not show the common genetic pattern of southern richness and northern purity in north-temperate species. Temperate refugial regions in Europe and North America show relatively deep DNA divergence for many taxa, indicating their presence over several Ice Ages, and suggesting a mode of speciation by repeated allopatry. DNA evidence indicates temperate species in Europe had different patterns of postglacial colonization across the same area and different ones in previous oscillations, whereas the northwest region of North America was colonized from the north, east and south. Tropical montane regions contain deeply diverged lineages, often in a relatively small geographical area, suggesting their survival there from the Pliocene. Our poor understanding of refugial biodiversity would benefit from further combined fossil and genetic studies.

Integrative Genomics Viewer

Abstract: Rapid improvements in sequencing and array-based platforms are resulting in a flood of diverse genome-wide data, including data from exome and whole-genome sequencing, epigenetic surveys, expression profiling of coding and noncoding RNAs, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and copy number profiling, and functional assays. Analysis of these large, diverse data sets holds the promise of a more comprehensive understanding of the genome and its relation to human disease. Experienced and knowledgeable human review is an essential component of this process, complementing computational approaches. This calls for efficient and intuitive visualization tools able to scale to very large data sets and to flexibly integrate multiple data types, including clinical data. However, the sheer volume and scope of data pose a significant challenge to the development of such tools.

Sequence-Based Species Delimitation for the DNA Taxonomy of Undescribed Insects

Abstract: Cataloging the very large number of undescribed species of insects could be greatly accelerated by automated DNA based approaches, but procedures for large-scale species discovery from sequence data are currently lacking. Here, we use mitochondrial DNA variation to delimit species in a poorly known beetle radiation in the genus Rivacindela from arid Australia. Among 468 individuals sampled from 65 sites and multiple morphologically distinguishable types, sequence variation in three mtDNA genes (cytochrome oxidase subunit 1, cytochrome b, 16S ribosomal RNA) was strongly partitioned between 46 or 47 putative species identified with quantitative methods of species recognition based on fixed unique ("diagnostic") characters. The boundaries between groups were also recognizable from a striking increase in branching rate in clock-constrained calibrated trees. Models of stochastic lineage growth (Yule models) were combined with coalescence theory to develop a new likelihood method that determines the point of transition from species-level (speciation and extinction) to population-level (coalescence) evolutionary processes. Fitting the location of the switches from speciation to coalescent nodes on the ultrametric tree of Rivacindela produced a transition in branching rate occurring at 0.43 Mya, leading to an estimate of 48 putative species (confidence interval for the threshold ranging from 47 to 51 clusters within 2 logL units). Entities delimited in this way exhibited biological properties of traditionally defined species, showing coherence of geographic ranges, broad congruence with morphologically recognized species, and levels of sequence divergence typical for closely related species of insects. The finding of discontinuous evolutionary groupings that are readily apparent in patterns of sequence variation permits largely automated species delineation from DNA surveys of local communities as a scaffold for taxonomy in this poorly known insect group.