Adrian C. Newton

Bio: Adrian C. Newton is an academic researcher from James Hutton Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Hordeum vulgare & Biodiversity. The author has an hindex of 74, co-authored 453 publications receiving 21814 citations. Previous affiliations of Adrian C. Newton include Seattle Children's Research Institute & University of Peradeniya.

Future environmental and geographic risks of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Scotland

Abstract: Methods used to assess climate change risk for crop diseases often assume that both host and pathogen are present. Consequently, model output may misrepresent future growing seasons, due to a failure to reflect likely change at the landscape- and farm-scale and its impact on disease risk. In this study, data defining the spatial coverage of crops in Scotland were combined with spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future risk of Fusarium head blight (FHB) in wheat. Primary inoculum was initially treated as non-limiting, and a widely accepted crop-disease-climate model for FHB risk assessment was used to project the risk of disease occurrence in over 50,000 crop locations. Primary inoculum was then treated as limiting, and an atmospheric dispersion model was used to modify projections according to the risk of inoculum dispersal from overwintering refugia to crop locations. In both cases it was predicted that FHB hazard will decrease in Scotland over time. Consequences for the species composition of the FHB complex and therefore the associated mycotoxin hazard were considered. To guide adaptation strategies, we also considered agronomic scenarios regarding potential climate-change-driven shifts in agricultural practices and planting patterns, and their effects on disease risk. We found that opportunities exist for increased cultivation of crops that are potent sources of Fusarium or Gibberella inoculum, and for movement of crops away from coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise, with little additional risk of FHB. These projections, made by considering the temporal and spatial coincidence of host and pathogen species under various climate change scenarios, suggest that improved control of FHB might not be a high priority for future food security in Scotland.

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Abstract: THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment

Abstract: This first report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment describes the conceptual framework that is being used in the MA. It is not a formal assessment of the literature, but rather a scientifically informed presentation of the choices made by the assessment team in structuring the analysis and framing the issues. The conceptual framework elaborated in this report describes the approach and assumptions that will underlie the analysis conducted in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. The framework was developed through interactions among the experts involved in the MA as well as stakeholders who will use its findings. It represents one means of examining the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being that is both scientifically credible and relevant to decision-makers. This framework for analysis and decision-making should be of use to a wide array of individuals and institutions in government, the private sector, and civil society that seek to incorporate considerations of ecosystem services in their assessments, plans, and actions.