Ahmedin Jemal

Bio: Ahmedin Jemal is an academic researcher from American Cancer Society. The author has contributed to research in topics: Cancer & Population. The author has an hindex of 132, co-authored 500 publications receiving 380474 citations. Previous affiliations of Ahmedin Jemal include Centers for Disease Control and Prevention & Emory University.

Recent trends in breast cancer incidence rates by age and tumor characteristics among U.S. women.

Abstract: A recent abstract presented in a breast cancer symposium attributed the sharp decrease in female breast cancer incidence rates from 2002 to 2003 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registries of the United States to the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy since July 2002. However, this hypothesis does not explain the decrease that began in 1999 in the age-standardized incidence rate of invasive breast cancer in the nine oldest SEER cancer registry areas, although the trend through 2003 was not statistically significant. In this paper, we examine temporal trends in invasive and in situ female breast cancer by age, stage, tumor size, and estrogen receptor/progestin receptor (ER/PR) status in the nine oldest SEER cancer registry areas and consider the implication of these trends in relation to risk factors and screening. We performed a joinpoint regression analysis to fit a series of joined straight lines to the trends in age-adjusted rates and described the resultant trends (slope) by annual percentage change (two-sided, P < 0.05). A plot of the age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer shows a decrease in all 5-year age groups from 45 years and above between 1999 and 2003 and sharp decreases largely confined to ER+ tumors in age groups from 50 to 69 years between 2002 and 2003. In joinpoint analyses by tumor size and stage, incidence rates decreased for small tumors (less than or equal to 2 cm) by 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2% to 7.8%) per year from 2000 through 2003 and for localized disease by 3.1% (95% CI, 1.2% to 5.0%) per year from 1999 through 2003. No decrease in incidence was observed for larger tumors or advanced-stage disease during the corresponding periods. Rates for in situ disease were stable from 2000 through 2003 after increasing rapidly since 1981. Two distinct patterns are observed in breast cancer trends. The downturn in incidence rates in all age groups above 45 years suggests a period effect that is consistent with saturation in screening mammography. The sharp decrease in incidence from 2002 to 2003 that occurred in women 50 to 69 years old who predominantly, but not exclusively, had ER+ tumors may reflect the early benefit of the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy.

Emerging cancer trends among young adults in the USA: analysis of a population-based cancer registry

Abstract: Summary Background Cancer trends in young adults, often under 50 years, reflect recent changes in carcinogenic exposures, which could foreshadow the future overall disease burden. Previous studies reported an increase in early onset colorectal cancer, which could partly reflect the obesity epidemic. We examined age-specific contemporary incidence trends in the USA for 30 common cancers, including 12 obesity-related cancers. Methods We obtained incidence data for invasive cancers among people aged 25–84 years diagnosed from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2014, for 25 population-based state registries in the USA. All patients in the registry were included in the analyses. We considered the 20 most common cancer types and 12 obesity-related cancers (30 cancer types in total). We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate average annual percentage change in incidence rates by 5-year age group (25–29 years to 80–84 years in 5-year increments) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) by birth cohort (10-year overlapping birth cohorts from 1910–19 to 1980–89 in 5-year increments). No exclusion criteria were applied after including all invasive cancer cases based on age group and diagnosis year. Findings From 1995 to 2014 there were 14 672 409 incident cases for 30 types of cancer. Incidence significantly increased for six of 12 obesity-related cancers (multiple myeloma, colorectal, uterine corpus, gallbladder, kidney, and pancreatic cancer) in young adults (25–49 years) with steeper rises in successively younger generations. Annual increases ranged from 1·44% (95% CI −0·60 to 3·53) for multiple myeloma to 6·23% (5·32–7·14) for kidney cancer at age 25–29 years, and ranged from 0·37% (0·03–0·72) for uterine corpus cancer to 2·95% (2·74–3·16) for kidney cancer at age 45–49 years. Compared with people born around 1950, IRRs for those born around 1985 ranged from 1·59 (95% CI 1·14–2·21) for multiple myeloma to 4·91 (4·27–5·65) for kidney cancer. Conversely, incidence in young adults increased in successively younger generations for only two cancers (gastric non-cardia cancer and leukaemia), and decreased for eight of the 18 additional cancers, including smoking and HIV infection-associated cancers. Interpretation The risk of developing an obesity-related cancer seems to be increasing in a stepwise manner in successively younger birth cohorts in the USA. Further studies are needed to elucidate exposures responsible for these emerging trends, including excess bodyweight and other risk factors. Funding Intramural Research Department of the American Cancer Society and the Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute.

Cancer statistics for Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders, 2016: Converging incidence in males and females.

Abstract: Cancer is the leading cause of death among Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders (AANHPIs). In this report, the American Cancer Society presents AANHPI cancer incidence data from the National Cancer Institute, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Among AANHPIs in 2016, there will be an estimated 57,740 new cancer cases and 16,910 cancer deaths. While AANHPIs have 30% to 40% lower incidence and mortality rates than non-Hispanic whites for all cancers combined, risk of stomach and liver cancers is double. The male-to-female incidence rate ratio among AANHPIs declined from 1.43 (95% confidence interval, 1.36-1.49) in 1992 to 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.07) in 2012 because of declining prostate and lung cancer rates in males and increasing breast cancer rates in females. The diversity within the AANHPI population is reflected in the disparate cancer risk by subgroup. For example, the overall incidence rate in Samoan men (526.5 per 100,000) is more than twice that in Asian Indian/Pakistani men (216.8). Variations in cancer rates in AANHPIs are related to differences in behavioral risk factors, use of screening and preventive services, and exposure to cancer-causing infections. Cancer-control strategies include improved use of vaccination and screening; interventions to increase physical activity and reduce excess body weight, tobacco use, and alcohol consumption; and subgroup-level research on burden and risk factors. CA Cancer J Clin 2016;66:182-202. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Lung Cancer Death Rates in Lifelong Nonsmokers

Abstract: BACKGROUND Few studies have directly measured the age-, sex-, and race-specific risks of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never tobacco smokers. Such data are needed to quantify the risks associated with smoking and to understand racial and sex disparities and temporal trends that are due to factors other than active smoking. METHODS We measured age-, sex-, and race-specific rates (per 100,000 person-years at risk) of death from lung cancer among more than 940,000 adults who reported no history of smoking at enrollment in either of two large American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study cohorts during 1959-1972 (CPS-I) and 1982-2000 (CPS-II). We compared lung cancer death rates between men and women and between African Americans and whites and analyzed temporal trends in lung cancer death rates among never smokers across the two studies by using directly age-standardized rates as well as Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS The age-standardized lung cancer death rates among never-smoking men and women in CPS-II were 17.1 and 14.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Men who had never smoked had higher age-standardized lung cancer death rates than women in both studies (CPS-I: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28 to 1.79; CPS-II: HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.36). The rate was higher among African American women than white women in CPS-II (HR = 1.43, CI = 1.11 to 1.85). A small temporal increase (CPS-II versus CPS-I) in lung cancer mortality was seen for white women (HR = 1.25, CI = 1.12 to 1.41) and African American women (HR = 1.22, CI = 0.64 to 2.33), but not for white men (HR = 0.89, CI = 0.74 to 1.08). Among white and African American women combined, the temporal increase was statistically significant only among those aged 70-84 years (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Contrary to clinical perception, the lung cancer death rate is not higher in female than in male never smokers and shows little evidence of having increased over time in the absence of smoking. Factors that affect the interpretation of lung cancer trends are discussed. Our novel finding that lung cancer mortality is higher among African American than white women never smokers should be confirmed in other studies.

Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries

Abstract: This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions There will be an estimated 181 million new cancer cases (170 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 96 million cancer deaths (95 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018 In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (116% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (184% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (116%), prostate cancer (71%), and colorectal cancer (61%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (92%), stomach cancer (82%), and liver cancer (82%) for mortality Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality) Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31 © 2018 American Cancer Society

Global cancer statistics

Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries.

Abstract: This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

Global cancer statistics, 2012

Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008.

Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 cancers in 2008 have been prepared for 182 countries as part of the GLOBOCAN series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In this article, we present the results for 20 world regions, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers. Overall, an estimated 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occur in 2008, with 56% of new cancer cases and 63% of the cancer deaths occurring in the less developed regions of the world. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide are lung (1.61 million, 12.7% of the total), breast (1.38 million, 10.9%) and colorectal cancers (1.23 million, 9.7%). The most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.38 million, 18.2% of the total), stomach cancer (738,000 deaths, 9.7%) and liver cancer (696,000 deaths, 9.2%). Cancer is neither rare anywhere in the world, nor mainly confined to high-resource countries. Striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.