Ainsley Jolley

Bio: Ainsley Jolley is an academic researcher from Victoria University, Australia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Greenhouse gas & World economy. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 16 publications receiving 127 citations.

Climate change and the new world economy: Implications for the nature and timing of policy responses

Abstract: The world has recently moved to a new economic growth path, driven by the rapid growth of developing country economies. How this new path affects the vulnerability of key biophysical systems and its resulting policy implications are assessed using a risk-based approach. Greenhouse gas emissions based on current policies are projected to 2030, with aggressive reductions from 2030 to 2100. Probabilities for global mean temperature in 2100 are applied to damage functions for four key vulnerabilities. Five conclusions are reached. CO2 emissions grow by 3.1% per annum over 2004–2030. Atmospheric CO2 concentration levels 4900ppm CO2-e and warming of 2.2–4.7 1C are attained by 2100. The four key vulnerabilities face a very high risk of adverse outcomes. The current policy mix cannot adequately manage these risks, which can be reduced but not eliminated by early global action. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental on Panel Change’s (IPCC) Special Report for Emission Scenarios (SRES) no longer provide a reliable tool for medium-term analysis in the new economy. Measures to reduce global fossil fuel consumption, accelerate the diffusion of existing non-fossil fuel technologies and to hasten the development of new technologies are urgently needed.

Sustainable development in Asia: the current state and policy options

Abstract: Over the past decades, many Asian economies have achieved striking levels of economic growth. This economic growth has been necessary in order to fulfil the material needs and aspirations of growing populations. However, it has also been accompanied by substantial environmental degradation. While the precise interactions between economic growth, economic development and environmental degradation is subject to controversy and a comprehensive assessment of the Asian environment may be required to fully understand this relationship and the present conditions of the environment, it is argued in this paper that the achievement of sustainable economic development and the harmonizing of economic and environmental objectives will not be possible without deliberate policy interventions. Such policies need to incorporate a regional dimension in the form of institution building, in parallel to the concept of regional economic growth. The article focuses on the current problems of environmental and natural resource degradation in Asia, within a possible conceptual framework of 'impoverishing or unsustainable economic growth, and suggests a set of policies that need to be adopted in order to solve current difficulties.

Technologies for Reducing Non-Energy-Related Emissions

Abstract: Among the sources of non-energy GHG emissions from the advanced economies, agriculture is the largest, followed by waste and industrial processes.1 Gross nonenergy emissions are estimated to be 15.4% of all GHG emissions from the advanced economies in 2010. The relative importance of gross non-energy emissions in total GHG emissions is tending to decline because of the slow growth in emissions from waste and agriculture. Net non-energy emissions from the advanced economies are reduced because of the considerable expansion in the carbon sink provided by forestry. The expansion of forestry has been cutting net non-energy emissions to less than half of gross emissions. Net non-energy emissions in the advanced economies are likely to be 10% of total GHG emissions by 2010, but this proportion is increasing because the rate of forestry growth is lessening, reducing the absolute level of carbon absorption.

Technologies for Reducing Stationary Energy Use

Abstract: The IEA Reference Scenario assumes that the efficiency of energy use - the amount of energy needed to provide a given amount of energy service - will continue to improve at a pace similar to that of the past three decades. Because most of the energy-using capital stock has a long life, technological advances can affect the average efficiency of equipment and appliances in use only very gradually. In stationary energy uses in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors, progressive improvements in energy efficiency are assumed to occur as a result of ongoing technological advances. For example, the growing deployment of integrated building designs, which incorporate efficient lighting, heating and cooling systems, will reduce energy consumption per square metre of office space in new office buildings. Energy efficiency standards and labelling programs already in place will continue to encourage more efficient equipment and appliances in these sectors. However, these efficiency improvements will be very gradual, because of the slow rate of replacement of energy-capital stock, especially buildings.

Sustainable transport for Asia‐pacific megacities

Abstract: Increasing urbanization in the Asia and Pacific region is leading to a rapid increase in the number of megacities. A major concern is the issue of sustainable transport. This article describes the procedures used and results of a multi‐economy foresight study of sustainable transport in megacities of the Asia‐Pacific region. Key issues and policy actions needed are identified.

World energy outlook

Abstract: This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

The Garnaut Climate Change Review

Abstract: Professor Ross Garnaut was commissioned by all of the Governments of Australia's Federation to examine the impacts of climate change on Australia and to recommend policy frameworks to improve the prospects of sustainable prosperity. The Garnaut Climate Change Review is one of the most important reports to be published in Australia for many years. It examines the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, the costs of adaptation and mitigation, and the international context in which climate change is experienced and negotiated. It analyses the elements of an appropriate international policy response, and the challenges that face Australia in playing its proportionate part in that response. The Garnaut Climate Change Review is highly relevant to the global problem that is climate change. It considers what policies the international community should adopt in responding to climate change, and urges humanity to act now, and in concert, to develop the required policy response in time.

Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.

Abstract: With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

Abstract: Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Abstract: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007 presents the most complete and authoritative assessment of the status of scientific knowledge on all aspects of climate change. This paper presents an updated assessment of the risks from anthropogenic climate change, based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent scientific literature published since finalisation of the AR4. Many risks are now assessed as stronger than in the AR4, including the risk of large sea-level rise already in the current century, the amplification of global warming due to biological and geological carbon-cycle feedbacks, a large magnitude of “committed warming” currently concealed by a strong aerosol mask, substantial increases in climate variability and extreme weather events, and the risks to marine ecosystems from climate change and ocean acidification. Some topics remain the subject of intense scientific debate, such as past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity and the risk of large-scale Amazon forest dieback. The rise in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations has accelerated recently, and it is expected to accelerate further in the absence of targeted policy interventions. Taken together, these findings point to an increased urgency of implementing mitigation policies as well as comprehensive and equitable adaptation policies.