Alan Grainger

Bio: Alan Grainger is an academic researcher from University of Leeds. The author has contributed to research in topics: Deforestation & Sustainable development. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 65 publications receiving 10358 citations.

Rates of deforestation in the humid tropics: estimates and measurements

Abstract: for the 1980s, are evaluated using an original set of criteria and the uncertainty is shown to result from lack of attention to remote sensing measurements and overconfidence in the use of expert judgement. Estimates of the total area of tropical moist forest are also unreliable, despite the increased use of remote sensing data in their derivation. A continuous satellite-based global monitoring system is needed to obtain better estimates and the institutional requirements for this are discussed.

Constraints on modelling the deforestation and degradation of tropical open woodlands

Abstract: Summary Ecosystem heterogeneity and lack of data on areas and deforestation rates have constrained the modelling of deforestation in tropical open woodlands. Smaller and more continuous changes in ecosystem quality attributes (e.g. canopy cover, tree density and biomass density) are best described as degradation, not deforestation. Suggestions are made for constructing degradation models by relaxing some assumptions of deforestation models to cope with the multiple uses of multiple vegetation layers by multiple users. Employing biomass as a dependent variable would account for biomass reductions caused by changes in woodland area, tree density and the biomass of retained trees and shrubs, and overcome the problem of how to aggregate changes in woodland area and tree density. Disaggregating models by woodland type is also recommended.

Inequality and ecosystem services: The value and social distribution of Niger Delta wetland services

Abstract: The Niger Delta wetlands are of international importance for their biodiversity, and support a large human population. The value and distribution of wetland ecosystem service benefits and costs across the three main stakeholder sectors (local community, government and corporate) were investigated. Results show that the net monetary value of the wetlands is $11,000 per delta household of which $9000 was generated as cash income supporting household activities such as education and healthcare. The total annual value of provisioning services to local people is approximately $25 billion, about three times the value of oil production in the region. However, local communities also bear about 75% of the environmental costs of oil extraction, equivalent to about 19% of the oil industry profit. Local people, who experience considerable economic hardship and lack alternative income sources, receive little compensation from the oil sector. These results highlight the importance of understanding not only the benefits provided by Niger Delta wetlands, but also the distribution of the environmental costs associated with their use. We conclude that ecosystem service valuation studies should give greater attention to the social distribution of identified values. Such distributional analyses, rarely available, provide insight into how sustainable natural resource management policy and practice could be better aligned to social justice concerns.

The role of science in implementing international environmental agreements: the case of desertification.

Abstract: A preliminary framework for evaluating the effectiveness of international environmental agreements (IEAs) is described, and applied to the UN Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (PACD) and UN Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), both of which have proven ineffective. There is good correspondence between the framework's nine criteria and official explanations of the reasons for poor implementation. Most of the criteria were identified in previous studies but opinions are divided on one of them—access to scientific knowledge. Its inclusion does, however, receive support from experiences in the desertification regime. Successive organizations of science-policy communication in the CCD have lacked many of the ideal features of boundary organizations, with access to scientific knowledge impeded mainly by formal institutions, compared with informal institutions in the PACD. Yet while applying the boundary organization model in a descriptive manner diagnoses the particular deficiencies in science-policy communication in this regime it cannot explain why they occur. Linking the CCD to a large and diverse scientific network, similar to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, could improve matters. But this may not be politically feasible, as new knowledge could undermine the viability of the CCD by unravelling its initial rule system. Progress in combating dryland degradation may therefore only be possible in another regime, e.g. in the successor to the Kyoto Protocol, or by devising a new interdisciplinary conceptualization of desertification which does not rely on ambiguity, as is the case at present. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Uncertainty in the construction of global knowledge of tropical forests

Abstract: Knowledge of tropical forest change remains uncertain, affecting our ability to produce accurate estimates of globally aggregated parameters to support clear global statements about ‘the tropical forests’. This paper reviews current methods for constructing global knowledge of changes in tropical forest area, carbon density, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It finds a deficiency in formal institutions for global measurement and constructing global knowledge. In their absence, informal institutions have proliferated, increasing the spread of estimates. This is exacerbated by dependence on inaccurate official statistics, which has limited construction of knowledge about forest area change through modelling. Employing the new concept of the Knowledge Exchange Chain shows the interdependence of different disciplines in constructing composite information. Limitations linked to compartmentalization and scale are present, as predicted by the ‘post-normal hypothesis’. Disciplinary compartmentalization has imp...

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change

Abstract: Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.

Abstract: In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.