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Alan Grainger

Bio: Alan Grainger is an academic researcher from University of Leeds. The author has contributed to research in topics: Deforestation & Sustainable development. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 65 publications receiving 10358 citations.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis was performed to produce a first order map of the technical suitability of present-day forest lands to sequester additional carbon in the continental part of tropical Asia.
Abstract: Tropical forest lands hold the greatest promise for sequestering large quantities of carbon. In thls study, an analysis was performed to produce a first order map of the technical suitability of present-day forest lands to sequester additional carbon in the continental part of tropical Asia. The analysis used a geographic information system (GIS) approach to assess the difference between 2 indices of potential and actual carbon sequestration of forests on a regional scale. This difference represents the degree to which forest biomass has been reduced (degraded) from its potential maximum caused by the long history of human impacts on the landscape. The difference indicates the relative amount of new biomass carbon which could be added to particular areas of land if they were protected, free from human disturbance, so that they could accumulate biomass up to their potential with no social, economic, or political constraints. A potential carbon sequestration index (PCSI) map was derived Iron1 d GIS lllodel bdsed on cii~lldtic d ~ i d yev~~lorphological factors. The actual carbon sequestration index map was derived via 2 methods: a degradation approach based on population densities and climate zones, and a remote sensing approach based on a 4 yr mean of the noinialized difference global vegetation index derived from NOAA AVHRR satellite imagery. Despite limitations, the methods provided reasonable maps of regional technical suitability on which to budd as data quality and methodologies improve. Areas of highest techn~cal suitability included the lowland moist and lowland seasonal ecofloristic zones, closed forests, and Peninsular Malaysia and India. On average, the technically suitable present forest lands could sequester an additional ca 90 Mg C ha-' in aboveground biomass.

54 citations

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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine global climate change from a conceptual point of view, and examine the issues of fairness and income distribution among nations, both now and in the future.
Abstract: Global climate change is about uncertainty related to ecological and economic processes, and political responses. It is about fairness and income distribution among nations, both now and in the future. It is a dynamic problem that involves national carbon transition functions, damage functions and discount rates. These issues form the basis of the current paper, which examines them from a conceptual point of view.

53 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's latest assessment of tropical forest resources in 1990, gives unreliable estimates of forest areas and deforestation rates in the humid tropics as discussed by the authors, and the reliability of many estimates is further constrained by being based on outdated national surveys and modelling adjustments rather than a special pantropical remote sensing survey.
Abstract: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's latest assessment of tropical forest resources in 1990, gives unreliable estimates of forest areas and deforestation rates in the humid tropics. Estimates for tropical rain forest are too low and statistics in the report cannot be used to derive estimates for tropical moist forest. Comparability with previous assessments is limited; the map used to divide tropical forest cover into different forest types is flawed; and the reliability of many estimates is further constrained by being based on outdated national surveys and modelling adjustments rather than a special pantropical remote sensing survey.

49 citations

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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe a social resilience model in which actors switch from performance strategies to survival strategies when the perceived severity of constraints exceeds a critical performance threshold (PST).
Abstract: While ecological resilience may explain why apparent symptoms of desertification are often temporary, social resilience can prevent degradation resulting from overexploitation of land in response to drought and other constraints. This paper describes a Social Resilience Model in which actors switch from performance strategies to survival strategies when the perceived severity of constraints exceeds a critical performance–survival threshold (PST). This is determined in comparison with a reference mode that depends on a learning facility developed by repeated exposure to cycles of constraint, search and feedback. Actors select particular strategies by comparing welfare gains with their aspiration levels—a concept that allows more flexible decision making than profit maximizing or satisficing alone. The model is tested in the silvopastoral zone of Senegal, where desertification is not as widespread as commonly assumed, despite severe constraints. The two major ethnic groups, the Wolof (mainly croppers) and the Peul (mainly pastoralists) anticipate and respond to environmental and socio-economic constraints differently, and have different performance and survival strategies. The Peul have the higher social resilience, with more flexible decision-making objectives, greater mobility, a more extensive action space, a learning facility supporting efficient search and feedback processes, a reference mode attuned to high anticipation and recognition of stress, and a high PST. They also exhibit more continuous performance–survival switching than the Wolof, who make a radical change from cropping to labour migration and reliance on external support. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

44 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, nine criteria and indicator schemes for forest management are little used instrumentally to monitor sustainability, at most being used to structure reports or statistics, and why the schemes lack coherent designs, with only 29% of indicators in five schemes suited to practical monitoring.
Abstract: This paper explains why nine criteria and indicator schemes for forest management are little used instrumentally to monitor sustainability, at most being used to structure reports or statistics, and why the schemes lack coherent designs, with only 29% of indicators in five schemes suited to practical monitoring. It outlines a new Knowledge-Action Framework, devised to analyse governing across the spectrum from government to the new style of governance, in which society steers itself. This proposes that conceptual and symbolic uses may be as important in governance as instrumental uses; science is less privileged; and indicator choice must satisfy a wider range of stakeholders than previously. Conceptual uses enable unambiguous learning by multiple stakeholders with conflicting views in governance; symbolic uses promote an ambiguous consensus between them; and the large numbers of indicators accumulated achieve ‘plurality of satisfaction’ but make monitoring impractical. Conceptual and symbolic uses are examples of new procedural policy instruments that facilitate multidirectional interactions between diverse groups in governance. Criteria and indicator schemes are termed procedural policy tools as they combine various procedural instruments. A new generic taxonomy shows continuity as substantive policy instruments long used by governments evolve into procedural instruments. Evaluation of the schemes finds evidence for conceptual and symbolic uses, indicator accumulation and restrictions on scientific inputs. The paper advances global environmental governance theory, and argues that the best way to overcome constraints on sustainability monitoring is through autonomous scientific research.

43 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols used xiii 1.
Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

14,171 citations

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TL;DR: In this paper, the use of the maximum entropy method (Maxent) for modeling species geographic distributions with presence-only data was introduced, which is a general-purpose machine learning method with a simple and precise mathematical formulation.

13,120 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
15 Nov 2013-Science
TL;DR: Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally, and boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms.
Abstract: Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

7,890 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date and found that presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions.
Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

7,589 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An overview of recent advances in species distribution models, and new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales are suggested.
Abstract: In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

5,620 citations