Alan Grainger

Bio: Alan Grainger is an academic researcher from University of Leeds. The author has contributed to research in topics: Deforestation & Sustainable development. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 65 publications receiving 10358 citations.

Desertification, and climate change: the case for greater convergence

Abstract: Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.

Towards a global drylands observing system: Observational requirements and institutional solutions

Abstract: Quantitative data on dryland changes and their effects on the people living there are required to support policymaking and environmental management at all scales. Data are regularly acquired by international, national or local entities, but presently exhibit specific gaps. Promoting sustainable development in drylands necessitates a much stronger integration, coordination and synthesis of available information. Space-based remote sensing systems continue to play an important role but do not fulfill all needs. Dedicated networks and observing systems, operating over a wide range of scales and resolutions, are needed to address the key issues that concern decision-makers at the scale of local communities, countries and the international community. This requires a mixture of ‘bottom–up’ and ‘top–down’ design principles, and multiple ownership of the resultant system. This paper reviews the limitations of current observing systems and suggests establishing a Global Drylands Observing System, which would capitalize on the achievements of systems already established to support the other Rio Conventions. This Global Drylands Observing System would provide an integrated, coherent entry point and user interface to a range of underlying information systems, identify and help generate missing information, propose a set of standards for the acquisition, archiving and distribution of data where these are lacking, evaluate the quality and reliability of these data and promote scientific research in these fields by improving access to data. The paper outlines the principles and main objectives of a Global Drylands Observing System and calls for renewed efforts to invigorate cooperation mechanisms between the many global environmental conventions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Citizen Observatories and the New Earth Observation Science

Abstract: Earth observation is diversifying, and now includes new types of systems, such as citizen observatories, unmanned aerial vehicles and wireless sensor networks. However, the Copernicus Programme vision of a seamless chain from satellite data to usable information in the hands of decision makers is still largely unrealized, and remote sensing science lacks a conceptual framework to explain why. This paper reviews the literatures on citizen science, citizen observatories and conceptualization of remote sensing systems. It then proposes a Conceptual Framework for Earth Observation which can be used in a new Earth observation science to explain blockages in the chain from collecting data to disseminating information in any Earth observation system, including remote sensing systems. The framework differs from its predecessors by including social variables as well as technological and natural ones. It is used here, with evidence from successful citizen science projects, to compare the factors that are likely to influence the effectiveness of satellite remote sensing systems and citizen observatories. The paper finds that constraints on achieving the seamless “Copernicus Chain” are not solely technical, as assumed in the new Space Strategy for Europe, but include social constraints too. Achieving the Copernicus Chain will depend on the balance between: (a) the ‘forward’ momentum generated by the repetitive functioning of each component in the system, as a result of automatic operation or human institutions, and by the efficiency of interfaces between components; and (b) the ‘backward’ flow of information on the information needs of end users. Citizen observatories will face challenges in components which for satellite remote sensing systems are: (a) automatic or straightforward, e.g., sensor design and launch, data collection, and data products; and (b) also challenging, e.g., data processing. Since citizen observatories will rely even more on human institutions than remote sensing systems to achieve repetitive functioning, one of their greatest strengths—using a “crowd” of hand-held sensors to cover large areas—could also be one of their greatest weaknesses.

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change

Abstract: Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.

Abstract: In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.