The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

The Lancet Commission on pollution and health

「脆弱性(Vulnerability)」とは何か

The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report

Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on planetary health

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6.pdf?code=lancet-site

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

Raised amniotic-fluid alpha-fetoprotein in turner syndrome

In this study, the relationship between the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated. A cyclone track database of extended October–March winters was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis. A large positive correlation is found between winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity over the exit region of the North Atlantic storm track in this cyclone track database. Conversely, a negative correlation is found over the Gulf Stream. Possible causes for the dependence are investigated by regressing winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity on teleconnection indices with Poisson and linear models. The indices for the Scandinavian pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern are able to account for most of the observed positive correlation over the North Atlantic. To consider the implications of frequency intensity dependence for the insurance industry, an aggregate risk metric was used as a proxy for the annual aggregate insured loss. Here, the aggregate risk is defined as the sum of the intensities of all events occurring within a season. Assuming independence between the frequency and intensity results in large biases in the variance and the extremes of the aggregate risk, especially over Scandinavia. Therefore including frequency intensity dependence in extratropical cyclone loss models is necessary to model the risk of extreme losses.

/pdf/new-perspectives-on-the-collective-risk-of-extratropical-130x253171.pdf

New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones

This chapter reviews how Event Loss Tables (ELTs) produced by catastrophe models are used to simulate insurance losses due to natural hazards. A formal statistical interpretation is presented in terms of a static mixture of compound processes and implications for clustering of losses are discussed. The consistency of this approach is then critiqued on the basis of physical understanding of natural hazard processes. A more dynamic nonstationary approach is demonstrated using various idealized dynamical mixing models and results are compared for an artificial ELT typical of windstorm losses. The tail of the aggregate loss distribution is found to be highly sensitive to the modeling choices.

Alasdair Hunter

Papers

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

Raised amniotic-fluid alpha-fetoprotein in turner syndrome

New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones

Towards a More Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modeling