Alberto Aleta

TL;DR: An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions.

TL;DR: It is found that the classical concept of the basic reproduction number is untenable in realistic populations, and it does not provide any conceptual understanding of the epidemic evolution, and evidence is provided that methodologies aimed at estimating the instantaneous reproduction number can operationally be used to characterize the correct epidemic dynamics from incidence data.

TL;DR: An overview of the basic methodology used to describe multilayer systems as well as of some representative dynamical processes that take place on top of them are provided.

TL;DR: The results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can play a major role in relaxing social distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

TL;DR: The scenarios evaluated here through data-driven simulations indicate that measures aimed at reducing individuals’ flow are much less effective than others intended for early case identification and isolation, and resources should be directed towards detecting as many and as fast as possible the new cases and isolate them.