Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary. The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Both the academic literature and global organizations have emphasized the need for responsible water consumption, as stated in Sustainable Development Goal 12. However, individuals’ water-saving behaviors in their current state are not enough. This situation entails a resistance to change (RC) in consumer habits and a lack of perceived risk of scarcity. The novelty of this study lies in examining the influence of RC (through its emotional, cognitive, and confidence components) and perceived risk on water-saving intention. Interviews (n = 384) were conducted in the southeast Mediterranean area of Spain by interviewers using a paper-and-pencil questionnaire. The results of the structural equation modeling show that the perceived risk and the components of cognitive rigidity and negative emotions exert a direct influence on water-saving habits and an indirect influence on water-saving intention. None of the components of RC directly influence intention, and a lack of confidence in the outcomes of water saving does not influence water-saving habits or water-saving intention. In addition to the results obtained, the novelty of the work lies in the idea that in order to influence the perception of the risk of water scarcity through awareness campaigns, it is better to use an emotional message rather than showing facts or information because this does not drive water-saving behavior.

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/9/4677/pdf

Resistance to Change and Perceived Risk as Determinants of Water-Saving Intention

The Water-Food-Energy Nexus can support a general model of sustainable development, balancing resources with increasing economic/productive expectations, as e.g., in agriculture. We synthesise lessons from Greece's practical and research experience, identify knowledge and application gaps, and propose a novel conceptual framework to tackle these challenges. Thessaly (Central Greece), the country's driest region and largest agricultural supplier is used as an example. The area faces a number of water quantity and quality issues, ambitious production-economic objectives, continuous (historically) drought and flood events, conflicts, administrative and economic issues, under serious climate change impacts. A detailed assessment of the current situation is carried out, covering all these aspects, for the first time in an integrated way. Collaboration gaps among different stakeholders are identified as the biggest impediment to socially acceptable actions. For the first time, to our knowledge, the Nexus is set as a keystone to develop a novel framework to reverse the situation and achieve sustainable management under socially acceptable long-term visions. The proposed framework is based on Systems' Theory, innovation, uses a multi-disciplinary platform to bring together all relevant stakeholders, provides scientific support and commitment, and makes use of technological advances for the system's improvement.

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A System Innovation Approach for Science-Stakeholder Interface: Theory and Application to Water-Land-Food-Energy Nexus

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their indicators provide opportunities to best combine the available knowledge and data to monitor and estimate different metrics and track their progress. The overall picture can be complex as some indicators are often interconnected (e.g., rural and/or urban development with a water body’s status). Two factors can play a crucial role in achieving the SDGs: the use of new technologies for database building and multidisciplinary studies and understanding. This study aims to explore these factors, highlight their importance and provide an example as guidance of their proper and combinative use. Ireland is used as an example of a data-scarce case with poor–slow progress, especially on the environmental SDGs. Two “non-reported” SDG indicators (lack of data) are selected and estimated in this work using freely available data (remote sensing, satellite imagery) and geospatial software for the first time in the country. The results show improvements in rural and urban development; however, this is accompanied by negative environmental consequences. A more holistic approach is needed and a broader conceptual model is presented to avoid any misleading interpretations of the study of SDGs. The transition to the modern technological and multidisciplinary evolution requires respective knowledge and understanding, strongly based on complex systems analysis.

Estimating SDG Indicators in Data-Scarce Areas: The Transition to the Use of New Technologies and Multidisciplinary Studies

[Background] The key to integrated watershed management is to take simultaneous account of environmental, economic, and social development goals; hence, a multi-objective decision making approach is required. However, our understanding and application of multi-objective decision making in watershed management remains limited. [Objective] The objective of this study was to develop a multi-objective decision making system (MDMS) that could simultaneously handle multiple problems and objectives in a small watershed based on the relationships among land, water and economy. [Methods] The MDMS was coupled with the watershed hydrological model and economic benefit evaluation model to comprehensively simulate the watershed operational process, and established a multi-objective function to minimize sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus outputs, while maximizing the economic benefits for integrated watershed management. The MDMS also utilized an improved meta-heuristic algorithm to optimize the agricultural land use structure of the small watershed to obtain the best integrated management plan at the small watershed scale. [Results] We found that the MDMS achieved seamless connections between automatic updating, analysis, and the optimization of land use structures in the iterative process, and successfully obtained an optimal scheme from a large number of agricultural land use structure alternatives, with particularly high time efficiencies. [Conclusions] Overall, the MDMS effectively controlled the negative impacts of crop planting on the environment, and simultaneously considered the economic benefits, which might assist managers in arriving at efficient scientific decisions toward the integrated management of small agricultural watersheds.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/10/1338/pdf

A Multi-Objective Decision Making System (MDMS) for a Small Agricultural Watershed Based on Meta-Heuristic Optimization Coupling Simulation

Undertaking integrated and sustainable water resources management (ISWRM) and providing socially acceptable solutions with scientifically solid bases is a dynamic and challenging process. Two basic pillars–umbrellas can be identified in the literature: stakeholder engagement and analysis; and integrated monitoring–modelling in the form of a decision support system (DSS) that can assess, evaluate and rank the management options. This study presents a framework that can be used as a good-practice example of successful stakeholder engagement (public engagement and collaboration with local communities towards shared visions) and an integrated DSS for ISWRM (including characterisation at catchment and local scales, programmes of measures and their evaluation): the Framework for Integrated Land and Landscape Management (FILLM), developed by an Irish multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder platform, the Water Forum. The fundamental theoretical principles and practical aspects of the FILLM are analysed. A step-by-step guide is proposed for its application, bridging the above pillars, using examples, reviewing methods and software, and analysing challenges and trends. It can help both socio-economic and environmental scientists (modellers) understand each other’s roles and find reviews of useful tools and methods for their work. This work can be a reference point for future ISWRM and environment management and can contribute to holistic education on such topics.

https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/1/40/pdf

Alec Rolston

Papers

Development of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Environmental Management and Stakeholder Engagement