Alex Guenther

Bio: Alex Guenther is an academic researcher from University of California, Irvine. The author has contributed to research in topics: Isoprene & Eddy covariance. The author has an hindex of 100, co-authored 447 publications receiving 45476 citations. Previous affiliations of Alex Guenther include National Center for Atmospheric Research & Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory.

A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions

Abstract: Numerical assessments of global air quality and potential changes in atmospheric chemical constituents require estimates of the surface fluxes of a variety of trace gas species. We have developed a global model to estimate emissions of volatile organic compounds from natural sources (NVOC). Methane is not considered here and has been reviewed in detail elsewhere. The model has a highly resolved spatial grid (0.5° × 0.5° latitude/longitude) and generates hourly average emission estimates. Chemical species are grouped into four categories: isoprene, monoterpenes, other reactive VOC (ORVOC), and other VOC (OVOC). NVOC emissions from oceans are estimated as a function of geophysical variables from a general circulation model and ocean color satellite data. Emissions from plant foliage are estimated from ecosystem specific biomass and emission factors and algorithms describing light and temperature dependence of NVOC emissions. Foliar density estimates are based on climatic variables and satellite data. Temporal variations in the model are driven by monthly estimates of biomass and temperature and hourly light estimates. The annual global VOC flux is estimated to be 1150 Tg C, composed of 44% isoprene, 11% monoterpenes, 22.5% other reactive VOC, and 22.5% other VOC. Large uncertainties exist for each of these estimates and particularly for compounds other than isoprene and monoterpenes. Tropical woodlands (rain forest, seasonal, drought-deciduous, and savanna) contribute about half of all global natural VOC emissions. Croplands, shrublands and other woodlands contribute 10–20% apiece. Isoprene emissions calculated for temperate regions are as much as a factor of 5 higher than previous estimates.

Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

Abstract: . Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon) depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ~600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at least some global models produce reasonable results when using isoprene emission distributions similar to MEGAN estimates. In addition, comparison with isoprene emissions estimated from satellite formaldehyde observations indicates reasonable agreement. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to earth system changes (e.g., climate and land-use) demonstrates the potential for large future changes in emissions. Using temperature distributions simulated by global climate models for year 2100, MEGAN estimates that isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two. This is considerably greater than previous estimates and additional observations are needed to evaluate and improve the methods used to predict future isoprene emissions.

The model of emissions of gases and aerosols from nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): An extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions

Abstract: . The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1) is a modeling framework for estimating fluxes of biogenic compounds between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using simple mechanistic algorithms to account for the major known processes controlling biogenic emissions. It is available as an offline code and has also been coupled into land surface and atmospheric chemistry models. MEGAN2.1 is an update from the previous versions including MEGAN2.0, which was described for isoprene emissions by Guenther et al. (2006) and MEGAN2.02, which was described for monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions by Sakulyanontvittaya et al. (2008). Isoprene comprises about half of the total global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission of 1 Pg (1000 Tg or 1015 g) estimated using MEGAN2.1. Methanol, ethanol, acetaldehyde, acetone, α-pinene, β-pinene, t-β-ocimene, limonene, ethene, and propene together contribute another 30% of the MEGAN2.1 estimated emission. An additional 20 compounds (mostly terpenoids) are associated with the MEGAN2.1 estimates of another 17% of the total emission with the remaining 3% distributed among >100 compounds. Emissions of 41 monoterpenes and 32 sesquiterpenes together comprise about 15% and 3%, respectively, of the estimated total global BVOC emission. Tropical trees cover about 18% of the global land surface and are estimated to be responsible for ~80% of terpenoid emissions and ~50% of other VOC emissions. Other trees cover about the same area but are estimated to contribute only about 10% of total emissions. The magnitude of the emissions estimated with MEGAN2.1 are within the range of estimates reported using other approaches and much of the differences between reported values can be attributed to land cover and meteorological driving variables. The offline version of MEGAN2.1 source code and driving variables is available from http://bai.acd.ucar.edu/MEGAN/ and the version integrated into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) can be downloaded from http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/ .

The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions

Abstract: . The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1) is a modeling framework for estimating fluxes of biogenic compounds between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using simple mechanistic algorithms to account for the major known processes controlling biogenic emissions. It is available as an offline code and has also been coupled into land surface and atmospheric chemistry models. MEGAN2.1 is an update from the previous versions including MEGAN2.0, which was described for isoprene emissions by Guenther et al. (2006) and MEGAN2.02, which was described for monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions by Sakulyanontvittaya et al. (2008). Isoprene comprises about half of the total global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emission of 1 Pg (1000 Tg or 1015 g) estimated using MEGAN2.1. Methanol, ethanol, acetaldehyde, acetone, α-pinene, β-pinene, t-β-ocimene, limonene, ethene, and propene together contribute another 30% of the MEGAN2.1 estimated emission. An additional 20 compounds (mostly terpenoids) are associated with the MEGAN2.1 estimates of another 17% of the total emission with the remaining 3% distributed among >100 compounds. Emissions of 41 monoterpenes and 32 sesquiterpenes together comprise about 15% and 3%, respectively, of the estimated total global BVOC emission. Tropical trees cover about 18% of the global land surface and are estimated to be responsible for ~80% of terpenoid emissions and ~50% of other VOC emissions. Other trees cover about the same area but are estimated to contribute only about 10% of total emissions. The magnitude of the emissions estimated with MEGAN2.1 are within the range of estimates reported using other approaches and much of the differences between reported values can be attributed to land cover and meteorological driving variables. The offline version of MEGAN2.1 source code and driving variables is available from http://bai.acd.ucar.edu/MEGAN/ and the version integrated into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) can be downloaded from http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/ .

Isoprene and monoterpene emission rate variability: Model evaluations and sensitivity analyses

Abstract: The temperature dependence of monoterpene emission varies among monoterpenes, plant species, and other factors, but a simple exponential relationship between emission rate (E) and leaf temperature (T), E = Es [exp (β(T - Ts))], provides a good approximation. A review of reported measurements suggests a best estimate of β = 0.09 K-1 for all plants and monoterpenes. Isoprene emissions increase with photosynthetically active radiation up to a saturation point at 700-900 μmol m-2 s-1. An exponential increase in isoprene emission is observed at leaf temperatures of less than 30°C. Emissions continue to increase with higher temperatures until a maximum emission rate is reached at about 40°C, after which emissions rapidly decline. This temperature dependence can be described by an enzyme activation equation that includes denaturation at high temperature. -from Authors

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

Abstract: Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Abstract: Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions

Abstract: Numerical assessments of global air quality and potential changes in atmospheric chemical constituents require estimates of the surface fluxes of a variety of trace gas species. We have developed a global model to estimate emissions of volatile organic compounds from natural sources (NVOC). Methane is not considered here and has been reviewed in detail elsewhere. The model has a highly resolved spatial grid (0.5° × 0.5° latitude/longitude) and generates hourly average emission estimates. Chemical species are grouped into four categories: isoprene, monoterpenes, other reactive VOC (ORVOC), and other VOC (OVOC). NVOC emissions from oceans are estimated as a function of geophysical variables from a general circulation model and ocean color satellite data. Emissions from plant foliage are estimated from ecosystem specific biomass and emission factors and algorithms describing light and temperature dependence of NVOC emissions. Foliar density estimates are based on climatic variables and satellite data. Temporal variations in the model are driven by monthly estimates of biomass and temperature and hourly light estimates. The annual global VOC flux is estimated to be 1150 Tg C, composed of 44% isoprene, 11% monoterpenes, 22.5% other reactive VOC, and 22.5% other VOC. Large uncertainties exist for each of these estimates and particularly for compounds other than isoprene and monoterpenes. Tropical woodlands (rain forest, seasonal, drought-deciduous, and savanna) contribute about half of all global natural VOC emissions. Croplands, shrublands and other woodlands contribute 10–20% apiece. Isoprene emissions calculated for temperate regions are as much as a factor of 5 higher than previous estimates.