Ana Pastore y Piontti

TL;DR: The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

TL;DR: An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions.

TL;DR: A 3-month ensemble forecast is generated that provides quantitative estimates of the local transmission of Ebola virus disease in West Africa and the probability of international spread if the containment measures are not successful at curtailing the outbreak.

TL;DR: A data-driven global stochastic epidemic model is used to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a model of Ebola virus transmission that integrates detailed geographical and demographic data from Liberia to overcome the limitations of non-spatial approaches in projecting the disease dynamics and assessing non-pharmaceutical control interventions.