Risk perception is a phenomenon in search of an explanation. Several approaches are discussed in this paper. Technical risk estimates are sometimes a potent factor in accounting for perceived risk, but in many important applications it is not. Heuristics and biases, mainly availability, account for only a minor portion of risk perception, and media contents have not been clearly implicated in risk perception. The psychometric model is probably the leading contender in the field, but its explanatory value is only around 20% of the variance of raw data. Adding a factor of "unnatural risk" considerably improves the psychometric model. Cultural Theory, on the other hand, has not been able to explain more than 5-10% of the variance of perceived risk, and other value scales have similarly failed. A model is proposed in which attitude, risk sensitivity, and specific fear are used as explanatory variables; this model seems to explain well over 30-40% of the variance and is thus more promising than previous approaches. The model offers a different type of psychological explanation of risk perception, and it has many implications, e.g., a different approach to the relationship between attitude and perceived risk, as compared with the usual cognitive analysis of attitude.

Factors in risk perception

The World Health Organization has declared the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the world a global public health emergency. It is well-known that the spread of the disease is influenced by people’s ...

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Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/slinden/files/jep_0.pdf

The social-psychological determinants of climate change risk perceptions: Towards a comprehensive model

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: A meta-analysis

Risk surrounds and envelopes us. Without understanding it, we risk everything and without capitalising on it, we gain nothing. This accessible book from Glynis M. Breakwell, first published in 2007, comprehensively explores the psychology of risk, examining how individuals think, feel and act, as well as considering the institutional and societal assessments, rhetorics and reactions about risk. Featuring chapters on all the major issues in the psychology of risk including risk assessment, hazard perception, decision-making, risk and crisis management, risk and emotion, risk communication, safety cultures, the social amplification and social representation of risk and mechanisms for changing risk responses, Breakwell uses illustrations and examples to bring to life the significance of her research findings. She provides an innovative overview of current knowledge on the subject but also suggests that there are many fascinating questions still to be answered.

/pdf/the-psychology-of-risk-3ua1pxol46.pdf

The Psychology of Risk

Long-term effects of training in economical driving: Fuel consumption, accidents, driver acceleration behavior and technical feedback

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) has mainly been used as a predictor of self-reported road traffic accidents. The associations between crashes and the violation and error factors of the DBQ, however, may be spuriously high due to reporting bias. In the present study, the DBQ was tested as a predictor of self-reported and recorded accidents in four samples of private and professional drivers. The findings show that the DBQ scale only predicts self-reported accidents, not recorded crashes, despite the higher validity of company data and the higher means of the recorded data across these samples. The results can be explained by a common method variance bias. In a review of the DBQ research, the use of the instrument was found to be heterogeneous concerning the number of items, scales used and factor analytic methods applied. Thus, the DBQ may not be as homogeneous and as successful in predicting accidents as is often claimed.

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The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of road traffic accidents

This is a study of risk perception in relation to New Age (NA) beliefs, including traditional folk superstition and belief in paranormal phenomena, as well as use of alternative healing practices. Data were also obtained on trust dimensions and on personality and psychopathology variables, as well as religious involvement. It was found that four factors accounted for the investigated NA beliefs, which were termed higher consciousness beliefs, denial of analytic knowledge, traditional superstition, and belief in the physical reality of the soul. NA beliefs were strongly and positively related to religious involvement, and negatively to educational level. These beliefs were also positively related to maladjustment and to concerns over tampering with nature. In regression analyses, it was found that NA beliefs explained about 15% of the variance of perceived risk, and that the most powerful explanatory factors were higher consciousness beliefs and beliefs in paranormal phenomena. Traditional superstition and use of healing practices did not contribute to explaining perceived risk.

Risk perception and new age beliefs

The use of lie scales has a fairly long history in psychometrics, with the intention of identifying and correcting for socially desirable answers. This represents one type of common method variance (bias introduced when both predictors and predicted variables are gathered from the same source), which may lead to spurious associations in self-reports. Within traffic safety research, where self-report methods are used abundantly, it is uncommon to control for social desirability artifacts, or reporting associations between lie scales, crashes and driver behaviour scales. In the present study, it was shown that self-reports of traffic accidents were negatively associated with a lie scale for driving, while recorded ones were not, as could be expected if the scale was valid and a self-report bias existed. We conclude that whenever self-reported crashes are used as an outcome variable and predicted by other self-report measures, a lie scale should be included and used for correcting the associations. However, the only existing lie scale for traffic safety is not likely to catch all socially desirable responding, because traffic safety may not be desirable for all demographic groups. New lie scales should be developed specifically for driver behaviour questionnaires, to counter potential bias and artifactual results. Alternatively, the use of a single source of data should be discontinued.

/pdf/the-effect-of-social-desirability-on-self-reported-and-goohx18050.pdf

The effect of social desirability on self reported and recorded road traffic accidents

This book discusses several methodological problems in traffic psychology which are not currently recognized as such. Summarizing and analyzing the available research, it is found that there are a number of commonly made assumptions about the validity of methods that have little backing, and that many basic problems have not been researched at all. Suggestions are made as to further studies that should be made to address some of the problems. The chapters cover traffic accident involvement taxonomies, the validity of self-reported traffic behaviour data, accident proneness, the determination of fault in collision, the accident-exposure association, constructing a driving safety criterion, alternatives to accidents as dependent variable, and case studies. The book is primarily intended for traffic / transport researchers, but it should also be useful for specialized education at a higher level as well as officials who require a good understanding of methodology to be able to evaluate research.

Anders af Wåhlberg

Papers

Long-term effects of training in economical driving: Fuel consumption, accidents, driver acceleration behavior and technical feedback

The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of road traffic accidents

Risk perception and new age beliefs

The effect of social desirability on self reported and recorded road traffic accidents

Driver Behaviour and Accident Research Methodology: Unresolved Problems