Andrea Gerali

Bio: Andrea Gerali is an academic researcher from Banca d'Italia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Monetary policy & Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. The author has an hindex of 23, co-authored 49 publications receiving 3743 citations. Previous affiliations of Andrea Gerali include Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

Abstract: This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, we introduce an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a DSGE model with financial frictions. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital from retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-assets ratios and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the existence of a banking sector partially attenuates the effects of demand shocks, while it helps propagate supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital has a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment.

Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area

Abstract: This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle ∞uctuations. To this end, an imperfectly competitive banking sector is introduced into a DGSE model with flnancial frictions. Banks issue loans to both households and flrms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-asset ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which afiects bank proflts and thus capital, and the supply and the cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. We show that shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest fraction of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a smaller role. We also flnd that an unexpected reduction in bank capital can have a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment. JEL: E30; E32; E43; E51; E52;

Macroeconomic Effects of Greater Competition in the Service Sector: The Case of Italy

Abstract: he paper assesses the effects of increasing competition in the service sector in Italy which, based on cross-country comparisons, is the OECD country with the highest markups in non-manufacturing industries. We propose a two-region (Italy and the rest of the euro area) dynamic general equilibrium model allowing for monopolistic competition in the labor, manufacturing and service markets. We then use the model to simulate the macroeconomic and spillover effects of increasing the degree of competition in the Italian services sector. Our results indicate that reducing the service sector markups to the levels of the rest of the euro area increases in the long run Italian GDP by 11 percent and welfare (measured in terms of steady state consumption equivalents) by about 3.5 percent. Half of the GDP increase would be realized in the first three years. The spillover effects to the rest of the euro area are limited.

Basel III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations

Abstract: We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the adoption of countercyclical capital buffers on economic fluctuations? The main results are the following. (1) Each percentage point increase in the capital ratio causes a median 0.09 percent decline in the level of steady state output, relative to the baseline. The impact of the new liquidity regulation is of a similar order of magnitude, at 0.08 percent. This paper does not estimate the benefits of the new regulation in terms of reduced frequency and severity of financial crisis, analysed in Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2010b). (2) The reform should dampen output volatility; the magnitude of the effect is heterogeneous across models; the median effect is modest. (3) The adoption of countercyclical capital buffers could have a more sizeable dampening effect on output volatility. These conclusions are fully consistent with those of reports by the Long-term Economic Impact group (BCBS, 2010b) and Macro Assessment Group (MAG, 2010b).

Capital Regulation, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?

Abstract: Few areas of monetary economics have been studied as extensively as the transmission mechanism. The literature on this topic has evolved substantially over the years, following the waxing and waning of conceptual frameworks and the changing characteristics of the financial system. In this paper, taking as a starting point a brief overview of the extant work on the interaction between capital regulation, the business cycle and the transmission mechanism, we offer some broader reflections on the characteristics of the transmission mechanism in light of the evolution of the financial system. We argue that insufficient attention has so far been paid to the link between monetary policy and the perception and pricing of risk by economic agents - what might be termed the "risk-taking channel" of monetary policy. We develop the concept, compare it with current views of the transmission mechanism, explore its mutually reinforcing link with "liquidity" and analyse its interaction with monetary policy reaction functions. We argue that changes in the financial system and prudential regulation may have increased the importance of the risk-taking channel and that prevailing macroeconomic paradigms and associated models are not well suited to capturing it, thereby also reducing their effectiveness as guides to monetary policy.

Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Abstract: The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: first, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant, and have become more important over time. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

Abstract: This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, we introduce an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a DSGE model with financial frictions. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital from retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-assets ratios and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the existence of a banking sector partially attenuates the effects of demand shocks, while it helps propagate supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital has a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment.

Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S.

Abstract: For a VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities, the authors present posterior densities for several objects that are of interest for designing and evaluating monetary policy. These include measures of inflation persistence, the natural rate of unemployment, a core rate of inflation, and “activism coefficients” for monetary policy rules. Their posteriors imply substantial variation of all of these objects for post WWII U.S. data. After adjusting for changes in volatility, persistence of inflation increases during the 1970s then falls in the 1980s and 1990s. Innovation variances change systematically, being substantially larger in the late 1970s than during other times. Measures of uncertainty about core inflation and the degree of persistence covary positively. The authors use their posterior distributions to evaluate the power of several tests that have been used to test the null of time-invariance of autoregressive coefficients of VARs against the alternative of time-varying coefficients. Except for one test, they find that those tests have low power against the form of time variation captured by our model. That one test also rejects time invariance in the data.