Part 1 Empirical evidence on money and output: introduction some basic correlations estimating the effect of money on output summary. Part 2 Money in a general equilibrium framework: introduction the Tobin effect money in the utility function summary appendix - the MIU approximation problems. Part 3 Money and transactions: introduction shopping-time models cash-in-advance models other approaches summary appendix - the CIA approximation problems. Part 4 Money and public finance: introduction bugdet accounting equilibrium seigniorage optimal taxation and seigniorage Friedman's rule revisited nonindexed tax systems problems. Part 5 Money and output in the short run: introduction flexible prices sticky prices and wages a framework for monetary analysis inflation persistence summary appendix problems. Part 6 Money and the open economy: introduction the Obstfeld-Rogoff two-country model policy coordination the small open economy summary appendix problems. Part 7 The credit channel of monetary policy: introduction imperfect information in credit markets macroeconomic implications does credit matter? summary. Part 8 Discretionary policy and time inconsistency: introduction inflation under discretionary policy solutions to the inflation bias is the inflation bias important? do central banking institutions matter? lessons and conclusions problems. Part 9 Monetary-policy operating procedures: introduction from instruments to goals the instrument-choice problem operating procedures and policy measures problems. Part 10 Interest rates and monetary policy: introduction interest-rate rule and the price level interest rate policies in general equilibrium models the term structure of interest rates a model for policy analysis summary problems.

Monetary Theory and Policy

Econometric policy evaluation: A critique

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.

/pdf/anticipating-critical-transitions-4zp7hd84hx.pdf

Anticipating Critical Transitions

Normal accidents. Living with high-risk technologies

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w5797/w5797.pdf

Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets

On 19 December 2014, the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of England hosted a discussion forum based around Thomas Piketty’s book, Capital in the twenty-first century, with a number of economists from academia, public sector bodies and private sector institutions. Four speakers presented research on various issues relating to inequality, including: access to education; wealth and taxation policy; and the role of governance and institutions. This article presents each speaker’s key arguments, and includes a summary of the open-floor debate that followed.

Capital in the 21st Century

In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.

/pdf/systemic-risk-in-banking-ecosystems-3qxa8ahram.pdf

Systemic risk in banking ecosystems

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ComplexityConcentrationContagion.JME.GaiHaldaneKapdia2011.pdf

Complexity, concentration and contagion

On 16 November 2002, the first official case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was recorded in Guangdong Province, China. Panic ensued. Uncertainty about its causes and contagious consequences brought many neighbouring economies across Asia to a standstill. Hotel occupancy rates in Hong Kong fell from over 80 % to less than 15 %, while among Beijing’s 5-star hotels occupancy rates fell below 2 %.

Rethinking the financial network

Credit cycles have been a characteristic of advanced economies for over 100 years On average, a sustained pick-up in the ratio of credit to GDP has been highly correlated with banking crises The boom phases of the cycle are characterised by large deviations in credit from trend A range of mechanisms can generate these effects, each of which has strategic complementarity between banks at its core Macro-prudential policy could curb these credit cycles, both through raising the cost of maintaining risky portfolios and through an expectations channel that operates via banks' perceptions of other banks' actions

http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/konferanslar/financial_stability/Conference_files/Curbing_the_Credit_Cycle.pdf

Andrew Haldane

Papers

Capital in the 21st Century

Systemic risk in banking ecosystems

Complexity, concentration and contagion

Rethinking the financial network

Curbing the Credit Cycle