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Andrew Lorrey

Other affiliations: University of Auckland
Bio: Andrew Lorrey is an academic researcher from National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Glacier & Agathis australis. The author has an hindex of 29, co-authored 89 publications receiving 3292 citations. Previous affiliations of Andrew Lorrey include University of Auckland.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
Moinuddin Ahmed1, Kevin J. Anchukaitis2, Kevin J. Anchukaitis3, Asfawossen Asrat4, H. P. Borgaonkar5, Martina Braida6, Brendan M. Buckley3, Ulf Büntgen7, Brian M. Chase8, Brian M. Chase9, Duncan A. Christie10, Duncan A. Christie11, Edward R. Cook3, Mark A. J. Curran12, Mark A. J. Curran13, Henry F. Diaz14, Jan Esper15, Ze-Xin Fan16, Narayan Prasad Gaire17, Quansheng Ge18, Joelle Gergis19, J. Fidel González-Rouco20, Hugues Goosse21, Stefan W. Grab22, Nicholas E. Graham23, Rochelle Graham23, Martin Grosjean24, Sami Hanhijärvi25, Darrell S. Kaufman26, Thorsten Kiefer, Katsuhiko Kimura27, Atte Korhola25, Paul J. Krusic28, Antonio Lara11, Antonio Lara10, Anne-Marie Lézine29, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist28, Andrew Lorrey30, Jürg Luterbacher31, Valérie Masson-Delmotte29, Danny McCarroll32, Joseph R. McConnell33, Nicholas P. McKay26, Mariano S. Morales34, Andrew D. Moy12, Andrew D. Moy13, Robert Mulvaney35, Ignacio A. Mundo34, Takeshi Nakatsuka36, David J. Nash37, David J. Nash22, Raphael Neukom7, Sharon E. Nicholson38, Hans Oerter39, Jonathan G. Palmer40, Jonathan G. Palmer41, Steven J. Phipps41, María Prieto32, Andrés Rivera42, Masaki Sano36, Mirko Severi43, Timothy M. Shanahan44, Xuemei Shao18, Feng Shi, Michael Sigl33, Jason E. Smerdon3, Olga Solomina45, Eric J. Steig46, Barbara Stenni6, Meloth Thamban47, Valerie Trouet48, Chris S. M. Turney41, Mohammed Umer4, Tas van Ommen13, Tas van Ommen12, Dirk Verschuren49, A. E. Viau50, Ricardo Villalba34, Bo Møllesøe Vinther51, Lucien von Gunten, Sebastian Wagner, Eugene R. Wahl14, Heinz Wanner24, Johannes P. Werner31, James W. C. White52, Koh Yasue53, Eduardo Zorita 
Federal Urdu University1, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2, Columbia University3, Addis Ababa University4, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology5, University of Trieste6, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research7, University of Montpellier8, University of Bergen9, Austral University of Chile10, University of Chile11, University of Tasmania12, Australian Antarctic Division13, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration14, University of Mainz15, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden16, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, University of Melbourne19, Complutense University of Madrid20, Université catholique de Louvain21, University of the Witwatersrand22, Hydrologic Research Center23, University of Bern24, University of Helsinki25, Northern Arizona University26, Fukushima University27, Stockholm University28, Université Paris-Saclay29, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research30, University of Giessen31, Swansea University32, Desert Research Institute33, National Scientific and Technical Research Council34, British Antarctic Survey35, Nagoya University36, University of Brighton37, Florida State University38, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research39, University of Exeter40, University of New South Wales41, Centro de Estudios Científicos42, University of Florence43, University of Texas at Austin44, Russian Academy of Sciences45, University of Washington46, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research47, University of Arizona48, Ghent University49, University of Ottawa50, University of Copenhagen51, University of Colorado Boulder52, Shinshu University53
TL;DR: The authors reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia and found that the most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century.
Abstract: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years

885 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The 20CRv2c dataset as mentioned in this paper is the first ensemble of sub-daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years, which provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty.
Abstract: Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields.

409 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Julien Emile-Geay1, Nicholas P. McKay2, Darrell S. Kaufman2, Lucien von Gunten, Jianghao Wang3, Kevin J. Anchukaitis4, Nerilie J. Abram5, Jason A. Addison6, Mark A. J. Curran7, Mark A. J. Curran8, Michael N. Evans9, Benjamin J. Henley10, Zhixin Hao, Belen Martrat11, Belen Martrat12, Helen McGregor13, Raphael Neukom14, Gregory T. Pederson6, Barbara Stenni15, Kaustubh Thirumalai16, Johannes P. Werner17, Chenxi Xu18, Dmitry Divine19, Bronwyn C. Dixon10, Joelle Gergis10, Ignacio A. Mundo20, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Steven J. Phipps8, Cody C. Routson2, Eric J. Steig21, Jessica E. Tierney4, Jonathan J. Tyler22, Kathryn Allen10, Nancy A. N. Bertler23, Jesper Björklund24, Brian M. Chase25, Min Te Chen26, Edward R. Cook27, Rixt de Jong14, Kristine L. DeLong28, Daniel A. Dixon29, Alexey A. Ekaykin30, Alexey A. Ekaykin31, Vasile Ersek32, Helena L. Filipsson33, Pierre Francus34, Mandy Freund10, Massimo Frezzotti, Narayan Prasad Gaire35, Narayan Prasad Gaire36, Konrad Gajewski37, Quansheng Ge, Hugues Goosse38, Anastasia Gornostaeva, Martin Grosjean14, Kazuho Horiuchi39, Anne Hormes40, Katrine Husum19, Elisabeth Isaksson19, Selvaraj Kandasamy41, Kenji Kawamura42, Kenji Kawamura43, K. Halimeda Kilbourne9, Nalan Koc19, Guillaume Leduc44, Hans W. Linderholm40, Andrew Lorrey45, Vladimir Mikhalenko46, P. Graham Mortyn47, Hideaki Motoyama43, Andrew D. Moy7, Andrew D. Moy8, Robert Mulvaney48, Philipp Munz49, David J. Nash50, David J. Nash51, Hans Oerter52, Thomas Opel52, Anais Orsi53, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov54, Trevor J. Porter55, Heidi A. Roop56, Casey Saenger21, Masaki Sano, David J. Sauchyn38, Krystyna M. Saunders14, Krystyna M. Saunders57, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz58, Mirko Severi59, Xuemei Shao, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre60, Michael Sigl61, Kate E. Sinclair, Scott St. George62, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques63, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques64, Meloth Thamban65, Udya Kuwar Thapa62, Elizabeth R. Thomas48, Chris S. M. Turney66, Ryu Uemura67, A. E. Viau37, Diana Vladimirova30, Diana Vladimirova31, Eugene R. Wahl68, James W. C. White69, Zicheng Yu70, Jens Zinke71, Jens Zinke72 
University of Southern California1, Northern Arizona University2, MathWorks3, University of Arizona4, Australian National University5, United States Geological Survey6, Australian Antarctic Division7, University of Tasmania8, University of Maryland, College Park9, University of Melbourne10, Spanish National Research Council11, University of Cambridge12, University of Wollongong13, University of Bern14, Ca' Foscari University of Venice15, University of Texas at Austin16, University of Bergen17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, Norwegian Polar Institute19, National University of Cuyo20, University of Washington21, University of Adelaide22, Victoria University of Wellington23, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research24, University of Montpellier25, National Taiwan Ocean University26, Columbia University27, Louisiana State University28, University of Maine29, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute30, Saint Petersburg State University31, Northumbria University32, Lund University33, Institut national de la recherche scientifique34, Tribhuvan University35, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology36, University of Ottawa37, Université catholique de Louvain38, Hirosaki University39, University of Gothenburg40, Xiamen University41, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology42, National Institute of Polar Research43, Aix-Marseille University44, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research45, Russian Academy of Sciences46, Autonomous University of Barcelona47, British Antarctic Survey48, University of Tübingen49, University of the Witwatersrand50, University of Brighton51, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research52, Université Paris-Saclay53, Sukachev Institute of Forest54, University of Toronto55, University at Buffalo56, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation57, Aarhus University58, University of Florence59, Pierre-and-Marie-Curie University60, Paul Scherrer Institute61, University of Minnesota62, University of Regina63, Concordia University64, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research65, University of New South Wales66, University of the Ryukyus67, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration68, University of Colorado Boulder69, Lehigh University70, Free University of Berlin71, Australian Institute of Marine Science72
TL;DR: A community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative, suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
Abstract: Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

260 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Jessica Blunden1, Derek S. Arndt1, Kate M. Willett2, A. Johannes Dolman3  +445 moreInstitutions (114)
TL;DR: The State of the Climate for 2013 as discussed by the authors is a very low-resolution file and it can be downloaded in a few minutes for a high-resolution version of the report to download.
Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2013 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

168 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. as mentioned in this paper The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years.
Abstract: In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Nina conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Nino year in the instrumental record. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina-the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan's all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982-present). According to paleoclimate studies, today's abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean. Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier. Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988. Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0-700-m and 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average. In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm. Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h-1. Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet. Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolivar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100 000 people. Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region's driest summer on record. In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.

129 citations


Cited by
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TL;DR: In this paper, Heaton, AG Hogg, KA Hughen, KF Kaiser, B Kromer, SW Manning, RW Reimer, DA Richards, JR Southon, S Talamo, CSM Turney, J van der Plicht, CE Weyhenmeyer
Abstract: Additional co-authors: TJ Heaton, AG Hogg, KA Hughen, KF Kaiser, B Kromer, SW Manning, RW Reimer, DA Richards, JR Southon, S Talamo, CSM Turney, J van der Plicht, CE Weyhenmeyer

13,605 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP.
Abstract: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

2,800 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Southern Hemisphere SHCal04 radiocarbon calibration curve has been updated with the addition of new data sets extending measurements to 2145 cal BP and including the ANSTO Younger Dryas Huon pine data set as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The Southern Hemisphere SHCal04 radiocarbon calibration curve has been updated with the addition of new data sets extending measurements to 2145 cal BP and including the ANSTO Younger Dryas Huon pine data set. Outside the range of measured data, the curve is based upon the Northern Hemisphere data sets as presented in IntCal13, with an interhemispheric offset averaging 43 ± 23 yr modeled by an autoregressive process to represent the short-term correlations in the offset. DOI: 10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.16783

1,596 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk.
Abstract: Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales Geological records of past climates have shown century-long variations in TC numbers While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC-induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large-scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65–89 doi: 101002/wcc371 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

1,496 citations