Showing papers by "Antonio Di Crescenzo published in 2020"

A generalized Gompertz growth model with applications and related birth-death processes

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a flexible growth model that constitutes a suitable generalization of the well-known Gompertz model. We perform an analysis of various features of interest, including a sensitivity analysis of the initial value and the three parameters of the model. We show that the considered model provides a good fit to some real datasets concerning the growth of the number of individuals infected during the COVID-19 outbreak, and software failure data. The goodness of fit is established on the ground of the ISRP metric and the $$d_2$$ -distance. We also analyze two time-inhomogeneous stochastic processes, namely a birth-death process and a birth process, whose means are equal to the proposed growth curve. In the first case we obtain the probability of ultimate extinction, being 0 an absorbing endpoint. We also deal with a threshold crossing problem both for the proposed growth curve and the corresponding birth process. A simulation procedure for the latter process is also exploited.

Connections between Weighted Generalized Cumulative Residual Entropy and Variance

Abstract: A shift-dependent information measure is favorable to handle in some specific applied contexts such as mathematical neurobiology and survival analysis. For this reason, the weighted differential entropy has been introduced in the literature. In accordance with this measure, we propose the weighted generalized cumulative residual entropy as well. Despite existing apparent similarities between these measures, however, there are quite substantial and subtle differences between them because of their different metrics. In this paper, particularly, we show that the proposed measure is equivalent to the generalized cumulative residual entropy of the cumulative weighted random variable. Thus, we first provide expressions for the variance and the new measure in terms of the weighted mean residual life function and then elaborate on some characteristics of such measures, including equivalent expressions, stochastic comparisons, bounds, and connection with the excess wealth transform. Finally, we also illustrate some applications of interest in system reliability with reference to shock models and random minima.

Generalized Entropies, Variance and Applications.

Abstract: The generalized cumulative residual entropy is a recently defined dispersion measure. In this paper, we obtain some further results for such a measure, in relation to the generalized cumulative residual entropy and the variance of random lifetimes. We show that it has an intimate connection with the non-homogeneous Poisson process. We also get new expressions, bounds and stochastic comparisons involving such measures. Moreover, the dynamic version of the mentioned notions is studied through the residual lifetimes and suitable aging notions. In this framework we achieve some findings of interest in reliability theory, such as a characterization for the exponential distribution, various results on k-out-of-n systems, and a connection to the excess wealth order. We also obtain similar results for the generalized cumulative entropy, which is a dual measure to the generalized cumulative residual entropy.

Analysis of the past lifetime in a replacement model through stochastic comparisons and differential entropy

Abstract: A suitable replacement model for random lifetimes is extended to the context of past lifetimes. At a fixed time u an item is planned to be replaced by another one having the same age but a different lifetime distribution. We investigate the past lifetime of this system, given that at a larger time t the system is found to be failed. Subsequently, we perform some stochastic comparisons between the random lifetimes of the single items and the doubly truncated random variable that describes the system lifetime. Moreover, we consider the relative ratio of improvement evaluated at x ∈ ( u , t ) , which is finalized to measure the goodness of the replacement procedure. The characterization and the properties of the differential entropy of the system lifetime are also discussed. Finally, an example of application to the firing activity of a stochastic neuronal model is provided.

Analysis and applications of the residual varentropy of random lifetimes

Abstract: In reliability theory and survival analysis, the residual entropy is known as a measure suitable to describe the dynamic information content in stochastic systems conditional on survival. Aiming to analyze the variability of such information content, in this paper we introduce the variance of the residual lifetimes, "residual varentropy" in short. After a theoretical investigation of some properties of the residual varentropy, we illustrate certain applications related to the proportional hazards model and the first-passage times of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck jump-diffusion process.

Some results on the telegraph process confined by two non-standard boundaries

Abstract: We analyze the one-dimensional telegraph random process confined by two boundaries, 0 and $H>0$. The process experiences hard reflection at the boundaries (with random switching to full absorption). Namely, when the process hits the origin (the threshold $H$) it is either absorbed, with probability $\alpha$, or reflected upwards (downwards), with probability $1-\alpha$, for $0<\alpha<1$. We provide various results on the expected values of the renewal cycles and of the absorption time. The adopted approach is based on the analysis of the first-crossing times of a suitable compound Poisson process through linear boundaries. Our analysis includes also some comparisons between suitable stopping times of the considered telegraph process and of the corresponding diffusion process obtained under the classical Kac's scaling conditions.