Increasingly, for many application areas, it is becoming important to include elements of nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity in order to model accurately the underlying dynamics of a physical system. Moreover, it is typically crucial to process data on-line as it arrives, both from the point of view of storage costs as well as for rapid adaptation to changing signal characteristics. In this paper, we review both optimal and suboptimal Bayesian algorithms for nonlinear/non-Gaussian tracking problems, with a focus on particle filters. Particle filters are sequential Monte Carlo methods based on point mass (or "particle") representations of probability densities, which can be applied to any state-space model and which generalize the traditional Kalman filtering methods. Several variants of the particle filter such as SIR, ASIR, and RPF are introduced within a generic framework of the sequential importance sampling (SIS) algorithm. These are discussed and compared with the standard EKF through an illustrative example.

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A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

Can machine learning deliver AI? Theoretical results, inspiration from the brain and cognition, as well as machine learning experiments suggest that in order to learn the kind of complicated functions that can represent high-level abstractions (e.g. in vision, language, and other AI-level tasks), one would need deep architectures. Deep architectures are composed of multiple levels of non-linear operations, such as in neural nets with many hidden layers, graphical models with many levels of latent variables, or in complicated propositional formulae re-using many sub-formulae. Each level of the architecture represents features at a different level of abstraction, defined as a composition of lower-level features. Searching the parameter space of deep architectures is a difficult task, but new algorithms have been discovered and a new sub-area has emerged in the machine learning community since 2006, following these discoveries. Learning algorithms such as those for Deep Belief Networks and other related unsupervised learning algorithms have recently been proposed to train deep architectures, yielding exciting results and beating the state-of-the-art in certain areas. Learning Deep Architectures for AI discusses the motivations for and principles of learning algorithms for deep architectures. By analyzing and comparing recent results with different learning algorithms for deep architectures, explanations for their success are proposed and discussed, highlighting challenges and suggesting avenues for future explorations in this area.

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Learning Deep Architectures for AI

https://www.sfs.uni-tuebingen.de/~hbaayen/publications/baayenDavidsonBates.pdf

Mixed-effects modeling with crossed random effects for subjects and items

Summary. We propose a methodology to sample sequentially from a sequence of probability distributions that are defined on a common space, each distribution being known up to a normalizing constant. These probability distributions are approximated by a cloud of weighted random samples which are propagated over time by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This methodology allows us to derive simple algorithms to make parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms interact to perform global optimization and sequential Bayesian estimation and to compute ratios of normalizing constants. We illustrate these algorithms for various integration tasks arising in the context of Bayesian inference.

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Sequential Monte Carlo samplers

In this paper, we propose a new particle filter based on sequential importance sampling. The algorithm uses a bank of unscented filters to obtain the importance proposal distribution. This proposal has two very "nice" properties. Firstly, it makes efficient use of the latest available information and, secondly, it can have heavy tails. As a result, we find that the algorithm outperforms standard particle filtering and other nonlinear filtering methods very substantially. This experimental finding is in agreement with the theoretical convergence proof for the algorithm. The algorithm also includes resampling and (possibly) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) steps.

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The Unscented Particle Filter

Random finite sets (RFSs) are natural representations of multitarget states and observations that allow multisensor multitarget filtering to fit in the unifying random set framework for data fusion. Although the foundation has been established in the form of finite set statistics (FISST), its relationship to conventional probability is not clear. Furthermore, optimal Bayesian multitarget filtering is not yet practical due to the inherent computational hurdle. Even the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates only the first moment (or PHD) instead of the full multitarget posterior, still involves multiple integrals with no closed forms in general. This article establishes the relationship between FISST and conventional probability that leads to the development of a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) multitarget filter. In addition, an SMC implementation of the PHD filter is proposed and demonstrated on a number of simulated scenarios. Both of the proposed filters are suitable for problems involving nonlinear nonGaussian dynamics. Convergence results for these filters are also established.

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Sequential Monte Carlo methods for multitarget filtering with random finite sets

Many real-world data analysis tasks involve estimating unknown quantities from some given observations. In most of these applications, prior knowledge about the phenomenon being modelled is available. This knowledge allows us to formulate Bayesian models, that is prior distributions for the unknown quantities and likelihood functions relating these quantities to the observations. Within this setting, all inference on the unknown quantities is based on the posterior distribution obtained from Bayes’ theorem. Often, the observations arrive sequentially in time and one is interested in performing inference on-line. It is therefore necessary to update the posterior distribution as data become available. Examples include tracking an aircraft using radar measurements, estimating a digital communications signal using noisy measurements, or estimating the volatility of financial instruments using stock market data. Computational simplicity in the form of not having to store all the data might also be an additional motivating factor for sequential methods.

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Arnaud Doucet

Papers

Sequential Monte Carlo samplers

The Unscented Particle Filter

Sequential Monte Carlo methods for multitarget filtering with random finite sets

An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo Methods

Editors: Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice