Author
Arthur Lupia
Other affiliations: University of California, San Diego, National Science Foundation, Northwestern University
Bio: Arthur Lupia is an academic researcher from University of Michigan. The author has contributed to research in topics: Politics & Transparency (behavior). The author has an hindex of 42, co-authored 142 publications receiving 12293 citations. Previous affiliations of Arthur Lupia include University of California, San Diego & National Science Foundation.
Topics: Politics, Transparency (behavior), Delegation, Credibility, Legislature
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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University of Southern California1, Duke University2, Stockholm School of Economics3, University of Virginia4, Center for Open Science5, University of Amsterdam6, University of Pennsylvania7, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill8, University of Regensburg9, California Institute of Technology10, New York University11, Research Institute of Industrial Economics12, Cardiff University13, Mathematica Policy Research14, Northwestern University15, Ohio State University16, University of Sussex17, Texas A&M University18, Royal Holloway, University of London19, University of Zurich20, University of Melbourne21, University of Wisconsin-Madison22, University of Michigan23, Stanford University24, Rutgers University25, Columbia University26, University of Washington27, University of Edinburgh28, National University of Singapore29, Utrecht University30, Arizona State University31, Princeton University32, University of California, Los Angeles33, Imperial College London34, University of Innsbruck35, Harvard University36, University of Chicago37, University of Pittsburgh38, University of Notre Dame39, University of California, Berkeley40, Johns Hopkins University41, University of Bristol42, University of New South Wales43, Dartmouth College44, Whitman College45, University of Puerto Rico46, University of Milan47, University of California, Irvine48, Paris Dauphine University49, University of British Columbia50, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich51, Purdue University52, Washington University in St. Louis53, University of California, Davis54, Microsoft55
TL;DR: The default P-value threshold for statistical significance is proposed to be changed from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new discoveries in order to reduce uncertainty in the number of discoveries.
Abstract: We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new discoveries.
1,586 citations
TL;DR: A growing body of evidence suggests that transparency, openness, and reproducibility are vital features of science as discussed by the authors, and most scientists embrace these features as disciplinary norms and values when asked, therefore, one might expect that these valued features would be routine in daily practice.
Abstract: Transparency, openness, and reproducibility are readily recognized as vital features of science (1, 2). When asked, most scientists embrace these features as disciplinary norms and values (3). Therefore, one might expect that these valued features would be routine in daily practice. Yet, a growing body of evidence suggests that this is not the case (4–6).
1,576 citations
TL;DR: This article found that voters who lack encyclopedic information about the content of electoral debates can nevertheless use information shortcuts to vote as though they were well informed, and that access to a particular class of widely available information shortcuts allowed badly informed voters to emulate the behavior of relatively well informed voters.
Abstract: Voters in mass elections are notorious for their apparent lack of information about relevant political matters. While some scholars argue that an electorate of well-informed voters is necessary for the production of responsive electoral outcomes, others argue that apparently ignorant voters will suffice because they can adapt their behavior to the complexity of electoral choice. To evaluate the validity of these arguments, I develop and analyze a survey of California voters who faced five complicated insurance reform ballot initiatives. I find that access to a particular class of widely available information shortcuts allowed badly informed voters to emulate the behavior of relatively well informed voters. This finding is suggestive of the conditions under which voters who lack encyclopedic information about the content of electoral debates can nevertheless use information shortcuts to vote as though they were well informed.
1,475 citations
Book•
13 Mar 1998
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a survey on the conditions for persuasion in information, persuasion and choice, and a survey of the institutions of knowledge and the foundation of democracy in the US.
Abstract: List of tables and figures Series editors' preface Acknowledgements 1. Knowledge and the foundation of democracy Part I. Theory: 2. How people learn 3. How people learn from others 4. What people learn from others 5. Delegation and democracy Part II. Experiments: 6. Theory, predictions and the scientific method 7. Laboratory experiments on information, persuasion and choice 8. Laboratory experiments on delegation 9. A survey on the conditions for persuasion Part III. Implications for Institutional Design: 10. The institutions of knowledge Afterword Appendices References Author index Subject index.
1,475 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This article proposed to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance for claims of new discoveries from 0.05 to 0.005, which is the threshold used in this paper.
Abstract: We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance for claims of new discoveries from 0.05 to 0.005.
1,415 citations
Cited by
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TL;DR: The authors argue that norms evolve in a three-stage "life cycle" of emergence, cascades, and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics.
Abstract: Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.
5,761 citations
Alexander A. Aarts, Joanna E. Anderson1, Christopher J. Anderson2, Peter Raymond Attridge3 +287 more•Institutions (116)
TL;DR: A large-scale assessment suggests that experimental reproducibility in psychology leaves a lot to be desired, and correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Abstract: Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
5,532 citations
TL;DR: As an example of how the current "war on terrorism" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says "permanently marked" the generation that lived through it and had a "terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century."
Abstract: The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic
5,309 citations
01 May 1981
TL;DR: This chapter discusses Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers, a method for assessing Collinearity, and its applications in medicine and science.
Abstract: 1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.
4,948 citations
TL;DR: The approach to utilizing available RNA-Seq and other data types in the authors' manual curation process for vertebrate, plant, and other species is summarized, and a new direction for prokaryotic genomes and protein name management is described.
Abstract: The RefSeq project at the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) maintains and curates a publicly available database of annotated genomic, transcript, and protein sequence records (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/refseq/). The RefSeq project leverages the data submitted to the International Nucleotide Sequence Database Collaboration (INSDC) against a combination of computation, manual curation, and collaboration to produce a standard set of stable, non-redundant reference sequences. The RefSeq project augments these reference sequences with current knowledge including publications, functional features and informative nomenclature. The database currently represents sequences from more than 55,000 organisms (>4800 viruses, >40,000 prokaryotes and >10,000 eukaryotes; RefSeq release 71), ranging from a single record to complete genomes. This paper summarizes the current status of the viral, prokaryotic, and eukaryotic branches of the RefSeq project, reports on improvements to data access and details efforts to further expand the taxonomic representation of the collection. We also highlight diverse functional curation initiatives that support multiple uses of RefSeq data including taxonomic validation, genome annotation, comparative genomics, and clinical testing. We summarize our approach to utilizing available RNA-Seq and other data types in our manual curation process for vertebrate, plant, and other species, and describe a new direction for prokaryotic genomes and protein name management.
4,104 citations