Arun Kumar

Bio: Arun Kumar is an academic researcher from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The author has contributed to research in topics: Sea surface temperature & Climate Forecast System. The author has an hindex of 81, co-authored 384 publications receiving 26259 citations. Previous affiliations of Arun Kumar include University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez & University of Nottingham.

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Abstract: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice m...

Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures

Abstract: The primary focus of this review is tropical-extratropical interactions and especially the issues involved in determining the response of the extratropical atmosphere to tropical forcing associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The review encompasses observations, empirical studies, theory and modeling of the extratropical teleconnections with a focus on developments over the Tropical Oceans-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade and the current state of understanding. In the tropical atmosphere, anomalous SSTs force anomalies in convection and large-scale overturning with subsidence in the descending branch of the local Hadley circulation. The resulting strong upper tropospheric divergence in the tropics and convergence in the subtropics act as a Rossby wave source. The climatological stationary planetary waves and associated jet streams, especially in the northern hemisphere, can make the total Rossby wave sources somewhat insensitive to the position of the tropical heating that induces them and thus can create preferred teleconnection response patterns, such as the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. However, a number of factors influence the dispersion and propagation of Rossby waves through the atmosphere, including zonal asymmetries in the climatological state, transients, and baroclinic and nonlinear effects. Internal midlatitude sources can amplify perturbations. Observations, modeling, and theory have clearly shown how storm tracks change in response to changes in quasi-stationary waves and how these changes generally feedback to maintain or strengthen the dominant perturbations through vorticity and momentum transports. The response of the extratropical atmosphere naturally induces changes in the underlying surface, so that there are changes in extratropical SSTs and changes in land surface hydrology and moisture availability that can feedback and influence the total response. Land surface processes are believed to be especially important in spring and summer. Anomalous SSTs and tropical forcing have tended to be strongest in the northern winter, and teleconnections in the southern hemisphere are weaker and more variable and thus more inclined to be masked by natural variability. Occasional strong forcing in seasons other than winter can produce strong and identifiable signals in the northern hemisphere and, because the noise of natural variability is less, the signal-to-noise ratio can be large. The relative importance of tropical versus extratropical SST forcings has been established through numerical experiments with atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Predictability of anomalous circulation and associated surface temperature and precipitation in the extratropics is somewhat limited by the difficulty of finding a modest signal embedded in the high level of noise from natural variability in the extratropics, and the complexity and variety of the possible feedbacks. Accordingly, ensembles of AGCM runs and time averaging are needed to identify signals and make predictions. Strong anomalous tropical forcing provides opportunities for skillful forecasts, and the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts is expected to improve as the ability to forecast the anomalous SSTs improves, as models improve, and as the information available from the mean and the spread of ensemble forecasts is better utilized.

Long‐range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States

Abstract: [1] We explore a strategy for long-range hydrologic forecasting that uses ensemble climate model forecasts as input to a macroscale hydrologic model to produce runoff and streamflow forecasts at spatial and temporal scales appropriate for water management. Monthly ensemble climate model forecasts produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center global spectral model (GSM) are bias corrected, downscaled to 1/8° horizontal resolution, and disaggregated to a daily time step for input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Bias correction is effected by evaluating the GSM ensemble forecast variables as percentiles relative to the GSM model climatology and then extracting the percentiles' associated variable values instead from the observed climatology. The monthly meteorological forecasts are then interpolated to the finer hydrologic model scale, at which a daily signal that preserves the forecast anomaly is imposed through resampling of the historic record. With the resulting monthly runoff and streamflow forecasts for the East Coast and Ohio River basin, we evaluate the bias correction and resampling approaches during the southeastern United States drought from May to August 2000 and also for the El Nino conditions of December 1997 to February 1998. For the summer 2000 study period, persistence in anomalous initial hydrologic states predominates in determining the hydrologic forecasts. In contrast, the El Nino-condition hydrologic forecasts derive direction both from the climate model forecast signal and the antecedent land surface state. From a qualitative standpoint the hydrologic forecasting strategy appears successful in translating climate forecast signals to hydrologic variables of interest for water management.

El Niño, La Niña, and the Nonlinearity of Their Teleconnections

Abstract: The paradigm of an atmospheric system varying linearly with respect to extreme phases of the El Nino- Southern Oscillation is questioned. It is argued that the global response to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forcing will be inherently nonlinear. A physical basis for this intrinsic nonlinearity is the thermodynamic control on deep convection. Climate statistics for warm and cold events of the tropical Pacific are analyzed separately for the northern winter periods during 1950-96. Composite analysis of 500-mb heights reveal planetary-scale teleconnection patterns, as noted in earlier studies. A new result is the evidence for an appreciable 358 longitude phase shift between the warm and cold event circulation composites, and the two wave trains appear to have different tropical origins. A large nonlinear component in North American surface climate anomalies is also found, which is consistent with such a phase shift in teleconnections. In the Tropics, rainfall anomalies also show evidence of nonlinear behavior. The maximum rain anomalies along the equator are located east of the date line during warm events, but west of the date line during cold events. The interpretation of this behavior is complicated, however, by the fact that composite warm event SST anomalies are not the exact inverse of their cold event counterparts. Idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are performed in order to test the question of whether the observed nonlinearity is an intrinsic property of the atmospheric system. The model is forced with a composite SST anomaly that undergoes a realistic seasonally varying ENSO life cycle, as described by E. Rasmusson and T. Carpenter. Both positive and negative phases of the SST anomaly are used, and a 40-member ensemble of warm and cold event model simulations is conducted. A nonlinear climate response in the AGCM is found that closely resembles the observed composites, including a shift in the equatorial positions of the maxmium rain responses and a phase shift of teleconnection patterns in the upper troposphere. Barotropic model experiments indicate that the inherent nonlinearity in the tropical rain response may itself be responsible for the phase shift in the extratropical teleconnection patterns.

The Perfect Ocean for Drought

Abstract: The 1998-2002 droughts spanning the United States, southern Europe, and Southwest Asia were linked through a common oceanic influence. Cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm SSTs in the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans were remarkably persistent during this period. Climate models show that the climate signals forced separately by these regions acted synergistically, each contributing to widespread mid-latitude drying: an ideal scenario for spatially expansive, synchronized drought. The warmth of the Indian and west Pacific oceans was unprecedented and consistent with greenhouse gas forcing. Some implications are drawn for future drought.

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project

Abstract: The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

Abstract: ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation

Abstract: Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions.