Arvind Virmani

Abstract: Paper reviews India's growth performance since independence. Phrases suchas "Hindu Rate of Growth," sometimes make a telling comment and expose obscureeconomic data to a wider audience, but they can just as readily obscure reality byfocussing attention on the wrong issue. There is nothing in the literature that suggeststhat this period of the "Hindu Rate of Growth" had anything to do with Hinduism per se.This paper shows that had a lot to do with the Indian version of Socialism. The 30-yearperiod from 1950-51 to 1979-80 is therefore better described as the "Indian-socialist" orperhaps "Hindu-socialist" period. The paper also identifies a truly disastrous 15-yearsub-period within this Indian-socialist period, the negative lessons of which have still notbeen fully understood or absorbed by academics, policy makers and political parties.One of the innovations in this paper is to take explicit account of rainfallvariations that play a very important role in the Indian economy. This allows us todetermine whether the Indian economy has become less dependent on the monsoons(`drought proof'). It also allows a statistically more accurate determination of thedifferent phases of Indian economic growth. The paper confirms that, what the authorhas earlier dubbed, the "Bharatiya Rate of Growth" phase began around 1980-81. Thepaper fills out the sector details of the various phases of development and the role thatgovernment and government monopoly has played in different sectors. The paper alsoexplores some of the growth puzzles in our economic history.

Abstract: VOLUME - I Acknowledgements Introduction Section I Economic Growth: History and Lessons 1. India's Economic Growth: Fluctuations Trends, Break Points and Phases 2. From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth 3. Sources of India's Economic Growth: Trends in Total Factor Productivity 4. China's Socialist Market Economy: Lessons of Success Section II Global Growth, Power and International Relations 5. Tripolar World: India, China and USA 6. VIP: A Simple Measure of a Nation's (Natural) Global Power 7. Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New International Order 8. A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India 9. East Asian Regionalism and its Impact 10. India-China Economic Relations Section III Political Economy: Social Welfare and Voting. 11. Economic Growth, Governance and Voting Behaviour: An Application to Indian Elections References Bibliography Index VOLUME - II Acknowledgements Introduction Section IV Policy Reforms and Institutions 1. Policy and Institutions: Some Lessons from Indian Reforms 2. India's 1990-91 Crisis: Reforms, Myths and Paradoxes 3. Excess Food Stocks, PDS and Procurement Policy 4. Foreign Direct Investment Reform Section V Tax and Tariff Reforms 5. Towards A Competitive Economy: VAT and Customs Duty Reform 6. Customs Tariff Reform 7. Impact of Tariff Reforms on Indian Industry: Assessment based on a Multi-sector Econometric Model Section VI Financial Sector: Domestic and Global Integration 8. Structure of the Household Sector Asset Portfolio in India 9. Global Integration of India's Money Market: Interest Rate Parity in India References Bibliography Index.

Abstract: Economic policy and policy reform over the last few decades has been motivated by the need to accelerate growth or equivalently to reverse a decline in growth rate. The economic literature on the determinants of growth has burgeoned and disagreement has followed consensus on the policy prescriptions that need to befollowed to achieve this purpose. Sometimes the disagreement is exaggerated by the titans of the profession, so as to distinguish themselves from those constituting the conventional wisdom. The present paper moves the focus from this "macro"debate to concrete issues of policy formulation and policy change and explores the links between policy and institutions in the context of economic reforms. Thus successful introduction of new policies may require new institutions and the degree of success in changing policies may depend on the degree to which existing institutions are modified. The literature on Institutions and Development has dealt with questions of grand design such as the Constitution, the rule of law (personal safety), property rights and informal rules embodied in culture. These are matters that happen on a timescale of a quarter/half century or more and can be thought of as the "superstructure" of institutions. The quantitative work on institutions and growth has explored the linkage between these institutional issues and economic growth. In the current paper we focus on what may be called the "microstructure" of institutions, a smaller scale at which change can occur over a time frame of decades (or half decades). Among the issues that a rise in this context are how changing institutions requirechanges in policies.

Abstract: Therefore, the seeker after the truth is not one who studies the writings of the ancients and, following his natural disposition, puts his trust in them, but rather the one who suspects his faith in them and questions what he gathers from them, the one who submits to argument and demonstration, and not to the sayings of a human being whose nature is fraught with all kinds of imperfection and de‹ciency. Thus the duty of the man who investigates the writings of scientists, if learning the truth is his goal, is to make himself the enemy of all that he reads, and, applying his mind to the core and margins of its content, attack it from every side. He should also suspect himself as he performs his critical examination of it, so that he may avoid falling into either prejudice or leniency. (Ibn al-Haytham)1