Asli Yuksel

Bio: Asli Yuksel is an academic researcher from Bahçeşehir University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Stock exchange & Stock market. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 24 publications receiving 119 citations. Previous affiliations of Asli Yuksel include Işık University.

The performance of the istanbul stock exchange during the Russian crisis

Abstract: This paper uses a unique data set to examine the possibility of a structural change in contemporaneous volume–return relation on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) during the Russian crisis in 1998. The comparison of the relationship during the crisis period to those during pre- and post-crisis periods shows that there was a structural change regarding the price impact of trading volume. The evidence indicates that traders needed to give considerably larger price concessions during the crisis period. The structural change was transitory since the cost of getting liquidity is shown to fall back during the post-crisis period. This study also provides the first evidence on univariate and joint characteristics of fifteen-minute common stock trading volume and returns on the ISE. Both average volume and return show significant univariate intraday variations, and there exists a positive contemporaneous relation between these variables. Moreover, there is weak evidence that in a GARCH setting volume has an impact on conditional return volatility.

Trading volume and stock market volatility: evidence from emerging stock markets

Abstract: Based on the ‘mixture of distribution’ hypothesis, this paper investigates the relationship between trading volume and conditional volatility of returns by using 12 emerging stock market indices over the period between January 2000 and August 2006. The results show that when total trading volume is included in the conditional volatility equation as a proxy for information flow, a moderate level of decline in volatility persistence was observed only for two stock markets. In four stock markets the decline in conditional volatility persistence is very small. On the other hand, for the remaining markets, total trading volume is a poor proxy for information flow. The findings are consistent with the findings of prior research, which suggest that volume may be a good proxy for stock-level analysis, but not for marketlevel analysis. Furthermore, following Wagner and Marsh (2005) and Arago and Nieto (2005) the relationship between unexpected trading volume (surprise trading volume as an alternative proxy for information flow) and conditional volatility is analyzed. The findings illustrate that for most of the markets, the relationship between surprise volume and conditional volatility is statistically significant.

The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors - eScholarship

Abstract: This paper analyzes the components of corporate credit spreads. The analysis is based on a structural model that can offer a framework to understand the decomposition. The paper contends that default risk may correctly represent only a small portion of corporate credit spreads. This idea stems both from empirical evidence and from the following theoretical assumptions underlying contingent claim models of default: that markets for corporate stocks and bonds are (i) perfect, (ii) complete, and (iii) trading takes place continuously. Thus, in these models there are no transaction or bankruptcy costs, no tax effects, no liquidity effects, no jump effects reflecting market incompleteness, and no market risk factors effecting the pricing of corporate stocks or bonds. The paper starts with the use of a modified version of the Black-Scholes-Merton diffusion based option approach. We estimate corporate default spreads as simply a component of corporate credit spreads using data from November 1991 to December 1998, which includes the Asian Crisis in the Fall, 1998. First we measure the difference between the observed corporate credit spreads and option based estimates of default spreads. We define this difference as the residual spread. We show that for AAA (BBB) firms only a small percentage, 5% (22%), of the credit spread can be attributed to default risk. We show that recovery risk also cannot explain this residual spread. Next, we show that state taxes on corporate bonds also cannot explain the residual. We note that the pure diffusion assumption may lead to underestimates of the default risk. In order to include jumps to default, we next estimate what combined jump-diffusion parameters would be necessary to force default spread to eliminate the residual spread. In each rating class on average firms would be required to experience annual jumps that decrease firm value by 20% and increase stock volatility by more than 100% over their observed volatility in order to eliminate the residual spread. We consider this required increase in stock volatility to be unrealistic as the sole explanation of the residual spread. So next we consider whether the unexplained component can be partly attributable to interest rates, liquidity, and market risk factors. We find the following empirical results: i) increases in liquidity as measured by changes in each firm’s trading volume significantly reduces the residual spread, but does not alter the default spread; ii) increases in stock market volatility significantly reduces the residual spread by increasing the default spread relative to the credit spread, and iii) increases in stock market returns significantly increases the residual spread by reducing the default spread relative to the credit spread. This paper concludes that credit risk and credit spreads are not primarily explained by default and recovery risk, but are mainly attributable to taxes, jumps, liquidity, and market risk factors.

Property shares, appraisals and the stock market: an international perspective

Abstract: A severe problem facing both real estate researchers and investors is the lack of reliable real estate returns data. Property shares, the shares of companies which invest in property and manage a portfolio of real estate, have been proposed as indicators of real estate performance. Property shares exist in many countries, are publicly traded, and their returns are not inherently biased. For three countries, we investigate the relationships with common stock and appraisal-based returns which property share returns exhibit. Our results indicate that property shares are closely related to the stock markets on which they trade, thereby confirming previous findings for the United States. However, property share returns also predict appraisal-based indices.

Financial crisis and African stock market integration

Abstract: This article examines long-run relationships and short-run dynamic causal linkages among the five largest emerging African stock markets and the US market, with particular attention to the 1997–1998 global emerging market crisis. In general, interdependence between the African markets and the influence of the US on these markets was limited during 1996–2002. There is evidence that both long-run relationships and short-run causal linkages between these markets were substantially weakened after the crisis.