A diagram has been devised that can provide a concise statistical summary of how well patterns match each other in terms of their correlation, their root-mean-square difference, and the ratio of their variances. Although the form of this diagram is general, it is especially useful in evaluating complex models, such as those used to study geophysical phenomena. Examples are given showing that the diagram can be used to summarize the relative merits of a collection of different models or to track changes in performance of a model as it is modified. Methods are suggested for indicating on these diagrams the statistical significance of apparent differences and the degree to which observational uncertainty and unforced internal variability limit the expected agreement between model-simulated and observed behaviors. The geometric relationship between the statistics plotted on the diagram also provides some guidance for devising skill scores that appropriately weight among the various measures of pattern correspondence.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000JD900719

Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram

The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

/pdf/monsoons-processes-predictability-and-the-prospects-for-1auwiao0qt.pdf

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

Global status of commercialized biotech/GM crops: 2006.

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon are shown to have undergone significant interdecadal changes in variance and coherency over the last 125 years. Wavelet analysis is applied to indexes of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (Nino3 SST), the Southern Oscillation index, and all-India rainfall. Time series of 2–7-yr variance indicate intervals of high ENSO–monsoon variance (1875–1920 and 1960–90) and an interval of low variance (1920–60). The ENSO–monsoon variance also contains a modulation of ENSO–monsoon amplitudes on a 12–20-yr timescale. The annual-cycle (1 yr) variance time series of Nino3 SST and Indian rainfall is negatively correlated with the interannual ENSO signal. The 1-yr variance is larger during 1935–60, suggesting a negative correlation between annual-cycle variance and ENSO variance on interdecadal timescales. The method of wavelet coherency is applied to the ENSO and monsoon indexes. The Nino3 SST and Indian rainfall are found to be highly coherent, ...

/pdf/interdecadal-changes-in-the-enso-monsoon-system-1wsadzztqn.pdf

Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system

Analysis of the 140-year historical record suggests that the inverse relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (weak monsoon arising from warm ENSO event) has broken down in recent decades. Two possible reasons emerge from the analyses. A southeastward shift in the Walker circulation anomalies associated with ENSO events may lead to a reduced subsidence over the Indian region, thus favoring normal monsoon conditions. Additionally, increased surface temperatures over Eurasia in winter and spring, which are a part of the midlatitude continental warming trend, may favor the enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient conducive to a strong monsoon. These observations raise the possibility that the Eurasian warming in recent decades helps to sustain the monsoon rainfall at a normal level despite strong ENSO events.

/pdf/on-the-weakening-relationship-between-the-indian-monsoon-and-4y1pqv2xkm.pdf

On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO

The Indian rainfall has often been used as a proxy data for the Asian monsoon as a whole for understanding the energy budget of the major circulation features and also used as an input parameter in estimating the other regional parameters. In view of this, a long homogeneous rainfall series of All-India (India taken as one unit) has been prepared based on a fixed and well distributed network of 306 raingauge stations over India by giving proper area-weightage. This paper contains a listing of All-India monthly, seasonal and annual homogeneous data series for the period 1871–1993. Some statistical details and long-term changes of the All-India monsoon rainfall have been discussed.

All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993

Analysis of the All-India summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall for the period 1871 to 1978 has been made in order to understand the interannual and long-term variability of the monsoon. On a country level, India receives 85.31 cm mean monsoon rainfall which is 78%; of the annual rainfall. The coefficient of variation of monsoon rainfall at the country level is 9.5%;. The highest and lowest rainfall country level were observed in the years 1961 and 1877 respectively, the range being 41 cm about 48%; of the long term average. There are 13/9 years of large-scale deficit/excess in the 108-yr period. There is a continuous rise in the 10-yr mean rainfall from 1899 to 1953. There are four major climatic rainfall periods in the series. Correlogram and spectrum analysis showed significant 14-yr and 2.8-yr cycles respectively in 108-yr series; however detailed examination indicated that these cycles have developed during the last 30 yr of the data period.

Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871–1978

Abnormalities in the performance of the Indian summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall, which provides 75–90 per cent of annual rainfall, have been studied during the period 1871 to 1984 over different meteorological subdivisions into which the country has been divided. Long homogeneous monsoon rainfall series of 29 subdivisions, prepared on the basis of a constant 306 rain gauges, have been tabulated for the users in view of their great importance. The criterion adopted in identification of drought/flood over a subdivision is the percentage of rainfall departures from normal, as officially used in the India Meteorological Department.

The worst drought years were 1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1920, 1951, 1965 and 1972 and the worst flood years were 1892, 1933, 1961 and 1983 when many subdivisions reported extremely low and excess rainfall, respectively. The probabilities of occurrence of droughts/floods are high in Haryana, Punjab, west Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra and Kutch subdivisions. The area of the country affected by drought conditions was at a maximum during the decade 1911–1920 and at a minimum during the decade 1881–1890. The decades 1971–1980 and 1921–1930 were characterized by maximum and minimum areas, respectively, under flood conditions. The percentage area of India which suffered from drought and flood was low during the continuous three decades 1921–1930, 1931–1940 and 1941–1950.

Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984

Long-term changes in the Indian monsoon rainfall on regional and local scales have important social and economic consequences. To present a comprehensive picture of such changes, the monthly rainfall data at 306 stations, well spread over India, have been analysed over 114 years (1871–1984), for long-term trends. The trends are quantified by linear trend for monthly as well as seasonal rainfall for each station. Some broad contiguous areas showing statistically significant trends have been identified. Areas of increasing trend in the monsoon seasonal rainfall are found along the west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and north-west India, and those of decreasing trend over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, north-east India and parts of Gujarat and Kerala.



The subseasonal patterns indicate that the excess or deficiency of the monsoon rainfall is more frequently realized in the later half of the season. Monsoon rainfall tends to be more concentrated in August, over the west coast and central India.

Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long‐term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The paper describes some homogenous representations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871-1990, prepared on the basis of a fixed and well-distributed network of 306 rain-gauges. An Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) Index, indicating the net excess of deficient rainfall conditions over the country, is proposed. Statistical analysis of the above series identifies 18 large-scale dry years and 15 large-scale wet years during the last 120 yr. The decadal means of ISMR index were continuously negative for three decades 1901-30, positive 1931-60 and again became negative during the current period 1961-90.

B. Parthasarathy

Papers

All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993

Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871–1978

Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984

Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long‐term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Indian summer monsoon rainfall indices : 1871-1990