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Showing papers by "Barend F.N. Erasmus published in 2004"


Journal ArticleDOI
08 Jan 2004-Nature
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

7,089 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the use of bioclimatic modelling to predict the habitat distribution for these pathogens, and to consider potential distribution patterns under conditions of climate change.

53 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jul 2004-Nature
TL;DR: Thomas et al. as mentioned in this paper confirmed their original conclusion that climate change represents a major threat to terrestrial species, in the light of three questions raised by Thuiller, Buckley and Roughgarden.
Abstract: Thomas et al. reply — We reconsider our estimates of climate-related extinction1 in the light of three questions raised by Thuiller .2, Buckley and Roughgarden 3 and Harte .4. We are able to confirm our original conclusion that climate change represents a major threat to terrestrial species1.

47 citations


Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the ability of national conservation networks to adapt to changes in underlying environmental drivers (such as precipitation) and their consequences for factors such as human density and species richness patterns.
Abstract: Few studies have investigated the ability of national conservation networks to adapt to changes in underlying environmental drivers (such as precipitation) and their consequences for factors such as human density and species richness patterns. In this article, the South African avifauna is used as the basis for such analysis to ascertain the likely extent of current, and future, anthropogenic impacts on priority conservation areas. We show that human population pressure is high in or around most of these priority areas and is likely to increase, given the magnitude of post-climate change estimated from predicted changes in precipitation and relationships between species richness, human densities, and rainfall. Although additional conservation areas, such as the Important Bird Area (IBA) network, are likely to introduce valuable flexibility to conservation management, only limited options are available for such expansions, and the conservation value of these areas is likely to be compromised by changing climate. Ultimately, a more integrated conservation approach is needed for effective conservation policies. Such an approach should confer adequate protection on current reserves and emphasize sustainable utilization of non-reserve areas.

30 citations