Barend F.N. Erasmus

Bio: Barend F.N. Erasmus is an academic researcher from University of the Witwatersrand. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Vegetation. The author has an hindex of 29, co-authored 93 publications receiving 9608 citations. Previous affiliations of Barend F.N. Erasmus include University of York & University of Pretoria.

Climate change and control of diarrhoeal diseases in South Africa: Priorities for action.

Abstract: Weather conditions, especially temperature and precipitation, play a critical role in shaping patterns of diarrhoeal diseases. They determine the frequency of outbreaks, and the spatial and seasonal distribution of cases. Not surprisingly, it is anticipated that the burden of diarrhoeal diseases will escalate with climate change, in tandem with gradual increments in mean temperatures, but also during episodic heatwaves. The degree and nature of this escalation will, however, vary with the mix of pathogens in an area, the quality of sanitation services, food hygiene regulations and their enforcement, and the age structure of the population, among other factors. Understanding these patterns can inform the design of measures to prevent and control heat-related diarrhoea. In this editorial, we sum evidence on the heat sensitivity of enteric infections in South Africa (SA) and other parts of sub-Saharan Africa (19 studies), drawing on articles located in a systematic review (methods detailed in Manyuchi et al. [1]), and consider the implications of these findings for control of diarrhoea in SA in the context of climate change.

Extracting strctural land cover components using small-footprint waveform lidar data

Abstract: Previous work has shown the ability of waveform LiDAR sensors to accurately describe various land cover types [1] and biomass estimates made in the field [2]. What is lacking, however, is a way to describe the different structural components that are embedded in the digitized backscattered energy from the LiDAR pulse. This study aims to extract structural components from waveform LiDAR data in terms of woody, herbaceous, and bare ground components from data collected over a savanna environment in and around Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. These components are comprised of metrics extracted from the waveforms and validated using biomass measurements made in field plots. Different size windows around plot centers, 3×3 pixels and 9×9 pixels (resulting in 1.5m and 4.5 m footprint, respectively), were used to examine scale effects of larger footprints. It was found that composite waveforms resembling plot sizes (9×9) most often are able to describe more than 80% of the woody biomass variability across the entire study site, and individually for two of the three land uses within the area. However, the herbaceous component of the waveform did not correlate well with the field measurements, while the bare ground component was verified visually in a side-by-side comparison with optical imagery.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Extinction risk from climate change

Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.

Abstract: In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation

Abstract: Accurate modeling of geographic distributions of species is crucial to various applications in ecology and conservation. The best performing techniques often require some parameter tuning, which may be prohibitively time-consuming to do separately for each species, or unreliable for small or biased datasets. Additionally, even with the abundance of good quality data, users interested in the application of species models need not have the statistical knowledge required for detailed tuning. In such cases, it is desirable to use "default settings", tuned and validated on diverse datasets. Maxent is a recently introduced modeling technique, achieving high predictive accuracy and enjoying several additional attractive properties. The performance of Maxent is influenced by a moderate number of parameters. The first contribution of this paper is the empirical tuning of these parameters. Since many datasets lack information about species absence, we present a tuning method that uses presence-only data. We evaluate our method on independently collected high-quality presence-absence data. In addition to tuning, we introduce several concepts that improve the predictive accuracy and running time of Maxent. We introduce "hinge features" that model more complex relationships in the training data; we describe a new logistic output format that gives an estimate of probability of presence; finally we explore "background sampling" strategies that cope with sample selection bias and decrease model-building time. Our evaluation, based on a diverse dataset of 226 species from 6 regions, shows: 1) default settings tuned on presence-only data achieve performance which is almost as good as if they had been tuned on the evaluation data itself; 2) hinge features substantially improve model performance; 3) logistic output improves model calibration, so that large differences in output values correspond better to large differences in suitability; 4) "target-group" background sampling can give much better predictive performance than random background sampling; 5) random background sampling results in a dramatic decrease in running time, with no decrease in model performance.