Birgit Hassler

Bio: Birgit Hassler is an academic researcher from German Aerospace Center. The author has contributed to research in topics: Ozone layer & Stratosphere. The author has an hindex of 20, co-authored 50 publications receiving 1542 citations. Previous affiliations of Birgit Hassler include National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration & Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

Abstract: The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft) across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) between 60˚N–60˚S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited in situ observations where the radiative effect is greatest.

Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

Abstract: As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.

The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: a long-term database for climate studies

Abstract: . In this paper, we describe the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, which includes vertically resolved ozone and water vapor data from a subset of the limb profiling satellite instruments operating since the 1980s. The primary SWOOSH products are zonal-mean monthly-mean time series of water vapor and ozone mixing ratio on pressure levels (12 levels per decade from 316 to 1 hPa). The SWOOSH pressure level products are provided on several independent zonal-mean grids (2.5, 5, and 10°), and additional products include two coarse 3-D griddings (30° long × 10° lat, 20° × 5°) as well as a zonal-mean isentropic product. SWOOSH includes both individual satellite source data as well as a merged data product. A key aspect of the merged product is that the source records are homogenized to account for inter-satellite biases and to minimize artificial jumps in the record. We describe the SWOOSH homogenization process, which involves adjusting the satellite data records to a “reference” satellite using coincident observations during time periods of instrument overlap. The reference satellite is chosen based on the best agreement with independent balloon-based sounding measurements, with the goal of producing a long-term data record that is both homogeneous (i.e., with minimal artificial jumps in time) and accurate (i.e., unbiased). This paper details the choice of reference measurements, homogenization, and gridding process involved in the construction of the combined SWOOSH product and also presents the ancillary information stored in SWOOSH that can be used in future studies of water vapor and ozone variability. Furthermore, a discussion of uncertainties in the combined SWOOSH record is presented, and examples of the SWOOSH record are provided to illustrate its use for studies of ozone and water vapor variability on interannual to decadal timescales. The version 2.5 SWOOSH data are publicly available at doi:10.7289/V5TD9VBX .

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends

Abstract: . Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as measured by equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine – EESC) was maximised in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in the EESC trend, though no attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~ 45 km, 4 hPa) are found to be −5 to −10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to −5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However, it is hard to be categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer measurements, (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have been revised. There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is a hint of an average positive trend of ~ 2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~ 3 % per decade in the tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the independence of the trend estimates found from different data sets. The averaged upward trends are significant if the trends derived from various data sets are assumed to be independent (as in Pawson et al., 2014) but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This occurs because many of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged data set. At this point it is not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as (i) more years are added to the observational record, (ii) further improvements are made to the historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development), and (iii) the data merging techniques are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Tropospheric ozone from 1877 to 2016, observed levels, trends and uncertainties

Abstract: From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have di erent uncertainties and biases, and the data records di er with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness. In this study, various ozone measurement methods and ozone datasets are reviewed and selected for inclusion in the historical record of background ozone levels, based on relationship of the measurement technique to the modern UV absorption standard, absence of interfering pollutants, representativeness of the well-mixed boundary layer and expert judgement of their credibility. There are signi cant uncertainties with the 19th and early 20th-century measurements related to interference of other gases. Spectroscopic methods applied before 1960 have likely underestimated ozone by as much as 11% at the surface and by about 24% in the free troposphere, due to the use of di ering ozone absorption coe cients. There is no unambiguous evidence in the measurement record back to 1896 that typical mid-latitude background surface ozone values were below about 20 nmol mol–1, but there is robust evidence for increases in the temperate and polar regions of the northern hemisphere of 30–70%, with large uncertainty, between the period of historic observations, 1896–1975, and the modern period (1990–2014). Independent historical observations from balloons and aircraft indicate similar changes in the free troposphere. Changes in the southern hemisphere are much less. Regional representativeness of the available observations remains a potential source of large errors, which are di cult to quantify. The great majority of validation and intercomparison studies of free tropospheric ozone measurement methods use ECC ozonesondes as reference. Compared to UV-absorption measurements they show a modest (~1–5% ±5%) high bias in the troposphere, but no evidence of a change with time. Umkehr, lidar, and FTIR methods all show modest low biases relative to ECCs, and so, using ECC sondes as a transfer standard, all appear to agree to within one standard deviation with the modern UV-absorption standard. Other sonde types show an increase of 5–20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970–1995. Biases and standard deviations of satellite retrieval comparisons are often 2–3 times larger than those of other free tropospheric measurements. The lack of information on temporal changes of bias for satellite measurements of tropospheric ozone is an area of concern for long-term trend studies.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

Abstract: . We present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations

Abstract: We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 +/- 7 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), H (164 +/- 15 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), and GPP (119 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.

The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Abstract: An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low-latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Nino-Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.

Anthropogenic drivers of 2013–2017 trends in summer surface ozone in China

Abstract: Observations of surface ozone available from ∼1,000 sites across China for the past 5 years (2013–2017) show severe summertime pollution and regionally variable trends. We resolve the effect of meteorological variability on the ozone trends by using a multiple linear regression model. The residual of this regression shows increasing ozone trends of 1–3 ppbv a−1 in megacity clusters of eastern China that we attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions. By contrast, ozone decreased in some areas of southern China. Anthropogenic NOx emissions in China are estimated to have decreased by 21% during 2013–2017, whereas volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions changed little. Decreasing NOx would increase ozone under the VOC-limited conditions thought to prevail in urban China while decreasing ozone under rural NOx-limited conditions. However, simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemical Transport Model (GEOS-Chem) indicate that a more important factor for ozone trends in the North China Plain is the ∼40% decrease of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the 2013–2017 period, slowing down the aerosol sink of hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals and thus stimulating ozone production.