Bob Baulch

Bio: Bob Baulch is an academic researcher from International Food Policy Research Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Poverty & Chronic poverty. The author has an hindex of 36, co-authored 98 publications receiving 4479 citations. Previous affiliations of Bob Baulch include University of Manchester & Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries

Abstract: This study provides an introduction to this special issue of The Journal of Development Studies on economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries In addition to providing a conceptual framework, it outlines how the contributions fit into the extant literature A series of regularities emerge across these studies The poor consist of those who are always poor — poor at all dates — and those who move in and out of poverty, with the latter group tending to be strikingly large Such movements in and out of poverty are apparent when looking at poverty in either absolute or relative terms Changes in returns to endowments can be a potent source of increased incomes Finally, seemingly transitory shocks can have long‐term consequences The study concludes by drawing out the policy implications of these regularities

Transfer Costs, Spatial Arbitrage, and Testing for Food Market Integration

Abstract: Conventional tests for food market integration ask, often misleadingly, whether prices in different locations move together. In this paper an alternative methodology, the parity bounds model (PBM), is developed which uses information on transfer costs in addition to food prices to assess the efficiency of spatial arbitrage. Monte Carlo experiments using data generated by a point-space spatial price equilibrium model show the PBM to be statistically reliable. An application to Philippine rice markets demonstrates that the PBM detects efficient arbitrage when other tests do not.

Economic Growth, Poverty, and Household Welfare in Vietnam

Abstract: Viet Nam is an economic success story - it transformed itself from a country in the 1980s as one of the poorest in the world, to a country in the 1990s with one of the world's highest growth rates. With the adoption of a new market-oriented policies, Viet Nam averaged an economic growth rate of 8 percent per year from 1990 to 2000, a growth rate accompanied by a large reduction in poverty, stemming from significant increases in school enrollment, and a rapid decrease in child malnutrition. The book uses an unusually rich set of macroeconomic, and household survey data, to examine several topics: the causes of the economic turnaround, and prospects for future growth; the impact of economic growth on household welfare, as measured by consumption expenditures, health, education, and other socioeconomic indicators; and, the nature of poverty in Viet Nam, and the effectiveness of government policies, intended to reduce same. Although the country's past achievements are impressive, future progress is by no means ensured.

Simulating the impact of policy upon chronic and transitory poverty in rural Pakistan

Abstract: Anti‐poverty programmes often seek to improve their impact by targeting households for assistance according to welfare measures in a single time period However, a growing literature shows the importance to poor households of fluctuations in their welfare from month to month and year to year This study uses a five‐year panel of 686 households from rural Pakistan to investigate the magnitude of chronic or transitory poverty making an explicit adjustment for measurement error The impact of two types of policies (those designed to ‘smooth’ incomes and those designed to promote income growth) on the severity of chronic and transitory poverty is examined Since the largest part of the squared poverty gap in our sample is transitory, large reductions in poverty can be achieved by interventions designed to ‘smooth’ incomes, but reducing chronic poverty in the long‐term requires large and sustained growth in household incomes The level and variability of incomes is then modelled as a function of household char

Being Poor and Becoming Poor: Poverty Status and Poverty Transitions in Rural Pakistan

Abstract: This paper contrasts the results of conventional poverty status regressions with an alternative approach, the analysis of poverty transitions, using a five-year longitudinal household survey from rural Pakistan. The results show that while the incidence of income poverty in the sample villages was high, turnover among the poor was rapid. Almost 60 percent of households experienced poverty during the five years of the panel but only 35 percent stayed in poverty for two or more years. Only 3 percent of households were poor in all five years of the panel. Furthermore, the correlates of entries and exits from poverty are found to differ in important but unexpected ways from those of poverty status. The policy implications of these findings, if confirmed elsewhere, indicate that targeting antipoverty policies using the characteristics of the currently poor is highly problematic.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Abstract: Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Fuzzy-Set Social Science

Abstract: In this innovative approach to the practice of social science, Charles Ragin explores the use of fuzzy sets to bridge the divide between quantitative and qualitative methods. Paradoxically, the fuzzy set is a powerful tool because it replaces an unwieldy, "fuzzy" instrument—the variable, which establishes only the positions of cases relative to each other, with a precise one—degree of membership in a well-defined set. Ragin argues that fuzzy sets allow a far richer dialogue between ideas and evidence in social research than previously possible. They let quantitative researchers abandon "homogenizing assumptions" about cases and causes, they extend diversity-oriented research strategies, and they provide a powerful connection between theory and data analysis. Most important, fuzzy sets can be carefully tailored to fit evolving theoretical concepts, sharpening quantitative tools with in-depth knowledge gained through qualitative, case-oriented inquiry. This book will revolutionize research methods not only in sociology, political science, and anthropology but in any field of inquiry dealing with complex patterns of causation.