Brad Weir

Bio: Brad Weir is an academic researcher from Goddard Space Flight Center. The author has contributed to research in topics: Environmental science & Atmospheric sciences. The author has an hindex of 8, co-authored 19 publications receiving 251 citations. Previous affiliations of Brad Weir include Universities Space Research Association.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 early science investigations of regional carbon dioxide fluxes

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Earth’s carbon cycle involves large fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) between the atmosphere, land biosphere, and oceans. Over the past several decades, net loss of CO 2 from the atmosphere to the land and oceans has varied considerably from year to year, equaling 20 to 80% of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and land use change. On average, the uptake is about 50%. The imbalance between CO 2 emissions and removal is seen in increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. In recent years, an increase of 2 to 3 parts per million (ppm) per year in the atmospheric mole fraction, which is currently about 400 ppm, has been observed. Almost a quarter of the CO 2 emitted by human activities is being absorbed by the ocean, and another quarter is absorbed by processes on land. The identity and location of the terrestrial sinks are poorly understood. This absorption has been attributed by some to tropical or Eurasian temperate forests, whereas others argue that these regions may be net sources of CO 2 . The efficiency of these land sinks appears to vary dramatically from year to year. Because the identity, location, and processes controlling these natural sinks are not well constrained, substantial additional uncertainty is added to projections of future CO 2 levels. RATIONALE The NASA satellite, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), which was launched on 2 July 2014, is designed to collect global measurements with sufficient precision, coverage, and resolution to aid in resolving sources and sinks of CO 2 on regional scales. Since 6 September 2014, the OCO-2 mission has been producing about 2 million estimates of the column-averaged CO 2 dry-air mole fraction ( X CO 2 ) each month after quality screening, with spatial resolution of 2 per sounding. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a small amount of light emitted during photosynthesis, is detected in remote sensing measurements of radiance within solar Fraunhofer lines and is another data product from OCO-2. RESULTS The measurements from OCO-2 provide a global view of the seasonal cycles and spatial patterns of atmospheric CO 2 , with the anticipated year-over-year growth rate. The buildup of CO 2 in the Northern Hemisphere during winter and its rapid decrease in concentration as spring arrives (and the SIF increases) is seen in unprecedented detail. The enhanced CO 2 in urban areas relative to nearby background areas is observed with a single overpass of OCO-2. Increases in CO 2 due to the biomass burning in Africa are also clearly observed. The dense, global, X CO 2 and SIF data sets from OCO-2 are combined with other remote sensing data sets and used to disentangle the processes driving the carbon cycle on regional scales during the recent 2015–2016 El Nino event. This analysis shows more carbon release in 2015 relative to 2011 over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Now, the fundamental driver for the change in carbon release can be assessed continent by continent, rather than treating the tropics as a single, integrated region. Small changes in X CO 2 were also observed early in the El Nino over the equatorial eastern Pacific, due to less upwelling of cold, carbon-rich water than is typical. CONCLUSION NASA’s OCO-2 mission is collecting a dense, global set of high-spectral resolution measurements that are used to estimate X CO 2 and SIF. The OCO-2 mission data set can now be used to assess regional-scale sources and sinks of CO 2 around the globe. The papers in this collection present early scientific findings from this new data set.

Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Transport Uncertainty on CO2 Surface Flux Estimates.

Abstract: We show that transport differences between two commonly used global chemical transport models, GEOS-Chem and TM5, lead to systematic space-time differences in modeled distributions of carbon dioxide and sulfur hexafluoride. The distribution of differences suggests inconsistencies between the transport simulated by the models, most likely due to the representation of vertical motion. We further demonstrate that these transport differences result in systematic differences in surface CO2 flux estimated by a collection of global atmospheric inverse models using TM5 and GEOS-Chem and constrained by in situ and satellite observations. While the impact on inferred surface fluxes is most easily illustrated in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle of surface CO2 exchange, it is the annual carbon budgets that are particularly relevant for carbon cycle science and policy. We show that inverse model flux estimates for large zonal bands can have systematic biases of up to 1.7 PgC/year due to large-scale transport uncertainty. These uncertainties will propagate directly into analysis of the annual meridional CO2 flux gradient between the tropics and northern midlatitudes, a key metric for understanding the location, and more importantly the processes, responsible for the annual global carbon sink. The research suggests that variability among transport models remains the largest source of uncertainty across global flux inversion systems and highlights the importance both of using model ensembles and of using independent constraints to evaluate simulated transport.

Four years of global carbon cycle observed from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) version 9 and in situ data and comparison to OCO-2 version 7

Abstract: Abstract. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite has been providing information to estimate carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes at global and regional scales since 2014 through the combination of CO2 retrievals with top–down atmospheric inversion methods. Column average CO2 dry-air mole fraction retrievals have been constantly improved. A bias correction has been applied in the OCO-2 version 9 retrievals compared to the previous OCO-2 version 7r improving data accuracy and coverage. We study an ensemble of 10 atmospheric inversions all characterized by different transport models, data assimilation algorithms, and prior fluxes using first OCO-2 v7 in 2015–2016 and then OCO-2 version 9 land observations for the longer period 2015–2018. Inversions assimilating in situ (IS) measurements have also been used to provide a baseline against which the satellite-driven results are compared. The time series at different scales (going from global to regional scales) of the models emissions are analyzed and compared to each experiment using either OCO-2 or IS data. We then evaluate the inversion ensemble based on the dataset from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), aircraft, and in situ observations, all independent from assimilated data. While we find a similar constraint of global total carbon emissions between the ensemble spread using IS and both OCO-2 retrievals, differences between the two retrieval versions appear over regional scales and particularly in tropical Africa. A difference in the carbon budget between v7 and v9 is found over this region, which seems to show the impact of corrections applied in retrievals. However, the lack of data in the tropics limits our conclusions, and the estimation of carbon emissions over tropical Africa require further analysis.

Regional impacts of COVID-19 on carbon dioxide detected worldwide from space.

Abstract: Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric...

Global Carbon Budget 2020

Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quere et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

This is How the Discussion Started

Abstract: A copy of Guangbo jiemu bao [Broadcast Program Report] was being passed from hand to hand among a group of young people eager to be the first to read the article introducing the program "What Is Revolutionary Love?" It said: "… Young friends, you are certainly very concerned about this problem'. So, we would like you to meet the young women workers Meng Xiaoyu and Meng Yamei and the older cadre Miss Feng. They are the three leading characters in the short story ‘The Place of Love.’ Through the description of the love lives of these three, the story induces us to think deeply about two questions that merit further examination.

Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations

Abstract: We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 +/- 7 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), H (164 +/- 15 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), and GPP (119 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models

Abstract: The magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs). The analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% yr−1. These simulations are part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere and underlying land and ocean respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and to changes in temperature and other climate variables. The carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters characterize the response of the CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the underlying surface to these changes. Feedback parameters are calculated using two different approaches. The two approaches are equivalent and either may be used to calculate the contribution of the feedback terms to diagnosed cumulative emissions. The contribution of carbon–concentration feedback to...

The HITRAN2020 molecular spectroscopic database

Abstract: The HITRAN database is a compilation of molecular spectroscopic parameters. It was established in the early 1970s and is used by various computer codes to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in gaseous media (with an emphasis on terrestrial and planetary atmospheres). The HITRAN compilation is composed of five major components: the line-by-line spectroscopic parameters required for high-resolution radiative-transfer codes, experimental infrared absorption cross-sections (for molecules where it is not yet feasible for representation in a line-by-line form), collision-induced absorption data, aerosol indices of refraction, and general tables (including partition sums) that apply globally to the data. This paper describes the contents of the 2020 quadrennial edition of HITRAN. The HITRAN2020 edition takes advantage of recent experimental and theoretical data that were meticulously validated, in particular, against laboratory and atmospheric spectra. The new edition replaces the previous HITRAN edition of 2016 (including its updates during the intervening years). All five components of HITRAN have undergone major updates. In particular, the extent of the updates in the HITRAN2020 edition range from updating a few lines of specific molecules to complete replacements of the lists, and also the introduction of additional isotopologues and new (to HITRAN) molecules: SO, CH3F, GeH4, CS2, CH3I and NF3. Many new vibrational bands were added, extending the spectral coverage and completeness of the line lists. Also, the accuracy of the parameters for major atmospheric absorbers has been increased substantially, often featuring sub-percent uncertainties. Broadening parameters associated with the ambient pressure of water vapor were introduced to HITRAN for the first time and are now available for several molecules. The HITRAN2020 edition continues to take advantage of the relational structure and efficient interface available at www.hitran.org and the HITRAN Application Programming Interface (HAPI). The functionality of both tools has been extended for the new edition.