ContextAssociations have been found between day-to-day particulate air pollution
and increased risk of various adverse health outcomes, including cardiopulmonary
mortality. However, studies of health effects of long-term particulate air
pollution have been less conclusive.ObjectiveTo assess the relationship between long-term exposure to fine particulate
air pollution and all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsVital status and cause of death data were collected by the American
Cancer Society as part of the Cancer Prevention II study, an ongoing prospective
mortality study, which enrolled approximately 1.2 million adults in 1982.
Participants completed a questionnaire detailing individual risk factor data
(age, sex, race, weight, height, smoking history, education, marital status,
diet, alcohol consumption, and occupational exposures). The risk factor data
for approximately 500 000 adults were linked with air pollution data
for metropolitan areas throughout the United States and combined with vital
status and cause of death data through December 31, 1998.Main Outcome MeasureAll-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality.ResultsFine particulate and sulfur oxide–related pollution were associated
with all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality. Each 10-µg/m3 elevation in fine particulate air pollution was associated with approximately
a 4%, 6%, and 8% increased risk of all-cause, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer
mortality, respectively. Measures of coarse particle fraction and total suspended
particles were not consistently associated with mortality.ConclusionLong-term exposure to combustion-related fine particulate air pollution
is an important environmental risk factor for cardiopulmonary and lung cancer
mortality.

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Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution

Background Recent studies have reported associations between particulate air pollution and daily mortality rates. Population-based, cross-sectional studies of metropolitan areas in the United States have also found associations between particulate air pollution and annual mortality rates, but these studies have been criticized, in part because they did not directly control for cigarette smoking and other health risks. Methods In this prospective cohort study, we estimated the effects of air pollution on mortality, while controlling for individual risk factors. Survival analysis, including Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, was conducted with data from a 14-to-16-year mortality follow-up of 8111 adults in six U.S. cities. Results Mortality rates were most strongly associated with cigarette smoking. After adjusting for smoking and other risk factors, we observed statistically significant and robust associations between air pollution and mortality. The adjusted mortality-rate ratio for the most po...

An Association between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six U.S. Cities

We examine the reduced-form relationship between per capita income and various environmental indicators. Our study covers four types of indicators: urban air pollution, the state of the oxygen regime in river basins, fecal contamination of ri'ver basins, and contamination of river basins by heavy metals. We find no evidence that environmental quality deteriorates steadily with economic growth. Rather, for most indicators, economic growth brings an initial phase of deterioration followed by a subsequent phase of improvement. The turning points for the different pollutants vary, but in most cases they come before a country reaches a per capita income of $8000. I. INTRODUCTION Will continued economic growth bring ever greater harm to the earth's environment? Or do increases in income and wealth sow the seeds for the amelioration of ecological problems? The answers to these questions are critical for the design of appropriate development strategies for lesser developed countries. Exhaustible and renewable natural resources serve as inputs into the production of many goods and services. If the composition of output and the methods of production were immutable, then damage to the environment would be inextricably linked to the scale of global economic activity. But substantial evidence suggests that development gives rise to a structural transformation in what an economy produces (see Syrquin [1989]). And societies have shown remarkable ingenuity in harnessing new technologies to conserve scarce resources. In principle, the forces leading to change in the composition and techniques of production may be sufficiently strong to more than offset the adverse effects of increased economic activity on the environment. In this paper we address this empirical issue using panel data on ambient pollution levels in many countries. Examination of the empirical relationship between national income and measures of environmental quality began with our *We thank the Ford Foundation, the Sloan Foundation, the John S. Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, the Institute for Policy Reform, and the Centers of International Studies and of Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University for financial support. We are grateful to Peter Jaffee, who tutored us on the various dimensions of water quality, to Robert Bisson, who provided us with the GEMS/ Water data, and to seminar participants at the O.E.C.D. Development Centre and the Institute for International Economic Studies in Stockholm, Sweden, who gave us helpful comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to James Laity, whose research assistance was simply extraordinary.

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Economic Growth and the Environment

Efforts to understand and mitigate the health effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution have a rich and interesting history. This review focuses on six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There has been substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonary health. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.

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Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect

Objective. —To identify and quantify the major external (nongenetic) factors that contribute to death in the United States. Data Sources. —Articles published between 1977 and 1993 were identified through MEDLINE searches, reference citations, and expert consultation. Government reports and compilations of vital statistics and surveillance data were also obtained. Study Selection. —Sources selected were those that were often cited and those that indicated a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of various factors to mortality and morbidity. Data Extraction. —Data used were those for which specific methodological assumptions were stated. A table quantifying the contributions of leading factors was constructed using actual counts, generally accepted estimates, and calculated estimates that were developed by summing various individual estimates and correcting to avoid double counting. For the factors of greatest complexity and uncertainty (diet and activity patterns and toxic agents), a conservative approach was taken by choosing the lower boundaries of the various estimates. Data Synthesis. —The most prominent contributors to mortality in the United States in 1990 were tobacco (an estimated 400000 deaths), diet and activity patterns (300 000), alcohol (100 000), microbial agents (90 000), toxic agents (60 000), firearms (35 000), sexual behavior (30 000), motor vehicles (25 000), and illicit use of drugs (20 000). Socioeconomic status and access to medical care are also important contributors, but difficult to quantify independent of the other factors cited. Because the studies reviewed used different approaches to derive estimates, the stated numbers should be viewed as first approximations. Conclusions. —Approximately half of all deaths that occurred in 1990 could be attributed to the factors identified. Although no attempt was made to further quantify the impact of these factors on morbidity and quality of life, the public health burden they impose is considerable and offers guidance for shaping health policy priorities. (JAMA. 1993;270:2207-2212)

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/JAMA/articlepdf/409171/jama_270_18_038.pdf

Actual causes of death in the United States.

Time-series, cross-sectional, and prospective cohort studies have observed associations between mortality and particulate air pollution but have been limited by ecologic design or small number of subjects or study areas. The present study evaluates effects of particulate air pollution on mortality using data from a large cohort drawn from many study areas. We linked ambient air pollution data from 151 U.S. metropolitan areas in 1980 with individual risk factor on 552,138 adults who resided in these areas when enrolled in a prospective study in 1982. Deaths were ascertained through December, 1989. Exposure to sulfate and fine particulate air pollution, which is primarily from fossil fuel combustion, was estimated from national data bases. The relationships of air pollution to all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiopulmonary mortality was examined using multivariate analysis which controlled for smoking, education, and other risk factors. Although small compared with cigarette smoking, an association between mor...

Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of U.S. adults.

This article briefly summarizes the epidemiology of the health effects of fine particulate air pollution, provides an early, somewhat speculative, discussion of the contribution of epidemiology to evaluating biologic mechanisms, and evaluates who's at risk or is susceptible to adverse health effects. Based on preliminary epidemiologic evidence, it is speculated that a systemic response to fine particle-induced pulmonary inflammation, including cytokine release and altered cardiac autonomic function, may be part of the pathophysiologic mechanisms or pathways linking particulate pollution with cardiopulmonary disease. The elderly, infants, and persons with chronic cardiopulmonary disease, influenza, or asthma are most susceptible to mortality and serious morbidity effects from short-term acutely elevated exposures. Others are susceptible to less serious health effects such as transient increases in respiratory symptoms, decreased lung function, or other physiologic changes. Chronic exposure studies suggest relatively broad susceptibility to cumulative effects of long-term repeated exposure to fine particulate pollution, resulting in substantive estimates of population average loss of life expectancy in highly polluted environments. Additional knowledge is needed about the specific pollutants or mix of pollutants responsible for the adverse health effects and the biologic mechanisms involved.

Epidemiology of fine particulate air pollution and human health: biologic mechanisms and who's at risk?

The association between daily mortality and respirable particulate pollution (PM10) in Utah County was assessed from April 1985 through December 1989. Poisson regression analysis was used to regress daily death counts on PM10 pollution levels, controlling for variability in the weather. A significant positive association between nonaccidental mortality and PM10 pollution was observed. The strongest association was with 5-d moving average PM10 levels, including the concurrent day and the preceding 4 d. An increase in 5-d moving average PM10 levels, equal to 100 micrograms/m3, was associated with an estimated increase in deaths per day equal to 16%. The association with mortality and PM10 was largest for respiratory disease deaths, next largest for cardiovascular deaths, and smallest for all other deaths. Mean PM10 concentrations during the study period equaled 47 micrograms/m3. The maximum 24-h and 5-d moving average PM10 levels equaled 365 and 297 micrograms/m3, respectively. Relatively low levels of sulfur dioxide, aerosol acidity, and ozone suggested an independent association between mortality and PM10. The relative risk of death increased monotonically with PM10, and the relationship was observed at PM10 levels that were well below the current National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 150 micrograms/m3.

Daily mortality and PM10 pollution in Utah Valley.

The relationship between daily mortality of elderly (65+ y) persons and air pollution in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil, for the period May 1990 to April 1991 was evaluated by time series regression, controlling for season, weather, and other factors. Mortality was associated with respirable particles (PM10), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). The association with PM10 was most statistically significant, robust, and independent of other air pollutants. An increase in PM10 equal to 100 micrograms/m3 was associated with an increase in overall mortality equal to approximately 13%. This association was consistent across various model specifications and estimation techniques. The dose-response relationship between mortality and respirable particulate pollution was almost linear, with no evidence of a "safe" threshold level. The results were similar to those observed in London and several U.S. cities. The results were also supportive of recent animal studies that have observed adverse health outcomes in experimental animals exposed to air pollution in Sao Paulo.

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Papers

An Association between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six U.S. Cities

Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of U.S. adults.

Epidemiology of fine particulate air pollution and human health: biologic mechanisms and who's at risk?

Daily mortality and PM10 pollution in Utah Valley.

Air Pollution and Mortality in Elderly People: A Time-Series Study in Sao Paulo, Brazil