C. Peter Timmer

Bio: C. Peter Timmer is an academic researcher from Harvard University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Food security & Food policy. The author has an hindex of 38, co-authored 87 publications receiving 7243 citations. Previous affiliations of C. Peter Timmer include Australian National University & Stanford University.

The Rise of Supermarkets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America

Abstract: Supermarkets are traditionally viewed by development economists, policymakers, and practitioners as the rich world’s place to shop. The three regions discussed here have the great majority of the poor on the planet. But supermarkets are no longer just niche players for rich consumers in the capital cities of the countries in these regions. The rapid rise of supermarkets in these regions in the past 5-10 years has transformed agrifood markets – at different rates and depths across regions and countries. Many of those transformations present great challenges – even exclusion – for small farms, processing and distribution firms, but also potentially great opportunities. Development models, policy and programs need to adapt to this radical change.This brief article describes this transformation of agrifood systems in Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), and Latin America. First, we describe the traditional retail and wholesale system in the midst of which emerged modern food retailing and its procurement system. Second, we discuss the determinants of and patterns in the diffusion of supermarkets in the three regions. Third, we discuss the evolution of procurement systems of those supermarkets, and consequences for agrifood systems. At the end, we hint at emerging implications for farms and firms in the region.

Chapter 8 The agricultural transformation

Abstract: Publisher Summary From both historical and contemporary cross-section perspectives, the agricultural transformation seems to evolve through at least four phases that are roughly definable. The process starts when agricultural productivity per worker rises. This increased productivity creates a surplus, which in the second phase can be tapped directly, through taxation and factor flows, or indirectly, through government intervention into the rural-urban terms of trade. This surplus can be utilized to develop the nonagricultural sector, and this phase has been the focus of most dual economy models of development. For resources to flow out of agriculture, rural factor, and product markets must become better integrated with those in the rest of the economy. The progressive integration of the agricultural sector into the macro economy, via improved infrastructure and market-equilibrium linkages, represents a third phase in agricultural development. When this phase is successful, the fourth phase is barely noticeable; the role of agriculture in industrialized economies is little different from the rote of the steel, housing, or insurance sectors. But when the integration is not successfully accomplished—and most countries have found it extremely difficult for political reasons—governments encounter serious problems of resource allocation and even problems beyond their borders because of pervasive attempts by high-income countries to protect their farmers from foreign competition.

Chapter 55 Transformation of Markets for Agricultural Output in Developing Countries Since 1950: How Has Thinking Changed?

Abstract: This chapter traces the evolution of the agricultural economics literature on agrifood output markets over the past 50 years, emphasizing research approaches and policy issues. The analysis of agrifood systems encompasses the demand and supply side of output markets. The analysis in this chapter is set within the conceptual framework of how the agrifood economy develops during the agricultural and structural transformation. The related paths of development of policy and policy issues, and research themes and methods, are analyzed in parallel. The chapter examines the shift from broad and atomistic “commodity” markets to differentiated and more concentrated “product” markets over the half century. Spurred by massive retail sector foreign direct investment (FDI) to which was added competitive investments from domestic capital, a profound retail transformation has occurred in the past decade – the “supermarket revolution”. This revolution has been the leading edge of globalization of domestic agrifood systems, not, as the literature currently emphasizes, opening to international trade. The chapter ends with a focus on the challenge for researchers in the next several decades, especially the need for new research methodologies that are suitable for understanding the role and influence of a small number of large-scale, multi-national firms, and for analyzing the impacts of the consolidation of the downstream segments of the agrifood system – the food industry – on upstream segments of the domestic agrifood systems, on rural development, and on trade.

Supermarket revolution in Asia and emerging development strategies to include small farmers

Abstract: A “supermarket revolution” has occurred in developing countries in the past 2 decades. We focus on three specific issues that reflect the impact of this revolution, particularly in Asia: continuity in transformation, innovation in transformation, and unique development strategies. First, the record shows that the rapid growth observed in the early 2000s in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand has continued, and the “newcomers”—India and Vietnam—have grown even faster. Although foreign direct investment has been important, the roles of domestic conglomerates and even state investment have been significant and unique. Second, Asia's supermarket revolution has exhibited unique pathways of retail diffusion and procurement system change. There has been “precocious” penetration of rural towns by rural supermarkets and rural business hubs, emergence of penetration of fresh produce retail that took much longer to initiate in other regions, and emergence of Asian retail developing-country multinational chains. In procurement, a symbiosis between modern retail and the emerging and consolidating modern food processing and logistics sectors has arisen. Third, several approaches are being tried to link small farmers to supermarkets. Some are unique to Asia, for example assembling into a “hub” or “platform” or “park” the various companies and services that link farmers to modern markets. Other approaches relatively new to Asia are found elsewhere, especially in Latin America, including “bringing modern markets to farmers” by establishing collection centers and multipronged collection cum service provision arrangements, and forming market cooperatives and farmer companies to help small farmers access supermarkets.

Economic growth and income inequality

Abstract: We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

The state of food insecurity in the world 2011: how does international price volatility affect domestic economies and food security?

Abstract: This report highlights the differential impacts that the world food crisis of 2006-2008 had on different countries, with the poorest being most affected. This year’s report focuses on the costs of food price volatility, as well as the dangers and opportunities presented by high food prices. Climate change and an increased frequency of weather shocks, increased linkages between energy and agricultural markets due to growing demand for biofuels, and increased financialization of food and agricultural commodities all suggest that price volatility is here to stay. The report describes the effects of price volatility on food security and presents policy options to reduce volatility in a cost-effective manner and to manage it when it cannot be avoided.

Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries

Abstract: Decades ago, discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. But in the 1970s, diets began to shift towards increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away-from-home food intake, and increased use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reductions in physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior began to be seen as well. The negative effects of these changes began to be recognized in the early 1990s, primarily in low- and middle-income populations, but they did not become clearly acknowledged until diabetes, hypertension, and obesity began to dominate the globe. Now, rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are well documented as well. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy measures are being explored in a few countries; however, few countries are engaged in serious efforts to prevent the serious dietary challenges being faced.

Food consumption trends and drivers

Abstract: A picture of food consumption (availability) trends and projections to 2050, both globally and for different regions of the world, along with the drivers largely responsible for these observed consumption trends are the subject of this review. Throughout the world, major shifts in dietary patterns are occurring, even in the consumption of basic staples towards more diversified diets. Accompanying these changes in food consumption at a global and regional level have been considerable health consequences. Populations in those countries undergoing rapid transition are experiencing nutritional transition. The diverse nature of this transition may be the result of differences in socio-demographic factors and other consumer characteristics. Among other factors including urbanization and food industry marketing, the policies of trade liberalization over the past two decades have implications for health by virtue of being a factor in facilitating the ‘nutrition transition’ that is associated with rising rates of obesity and chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Future food policies must consider both agricultural and health sectors, thereby enabling the development of coherent and sustainable policies that will ultimately benefit agriculture, human health and the environment.