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C. R. Margules

Bio: C. R. Margules is an academic researcher from Cooperative Research Centre. The author has contributed to research in topics: Measurement of biodiversity & Population. The author has an hindex of 8, co-authored 8 publications receiving 6496 citations. Previous affiliations of C. R. Margules include Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation & University of Sheffield.

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13 Sep 2007
TL;DR: A more systematic approach to locating and designing reserves has been evolving and this approach will need to be implemented if a large proportion of today's biodiversity is to exist in a future of increasing numbers of people and their demands on natural resources.
Abstract: The realization of conservation goals requires strategies for managing whole landscapes including areas allocated to both production and protection. Reserves alone are not adequate for nature conservation but they are the cornerstone on which regional strategies are built. Reserves have two main roles. They should sample or represent the biodiversity of each region and they should separate this biodiversity from processes that threaten its persistence. Existing reserve systems throughout the world contain a biased sample of biodiversity, usually that of remote places and other areas that are unsuitable for commercial activities. A more systematic approach to locating and designing reserves has been evolving and this approach will need to be implemented if a large proportion of today's biodiversity is to exist in a future of increasing numbers of people and their demands on natural resources.

4,916 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A classification of fragmentation sensitivity based on specific trait combinations is developed and the implications of the results for ecological theory are discussed.
Abstract: We reviewed empirical data and hypotheses derived from demographic, optimal foraging, life-history, community, and biogeographic theory for predicting the sensitivity of species to habitat fragmentation. We found 12 traits or trait groups that have been suggested as predictors of species sensitivity: population size; population fluctuation and storage effect; dispersal power; reproductive potential; annual survival; sociality; body size; trophic position; ecological specialisation, microhabitat and matrix use; disturbance and competition sensitive traits; rarity; and biogeographic position. For each trait we discuss the theoretical justification for its sensitivity to fragmentation and empirical evidence for and against the suitability of the trait as a predictor of fragmentation sensitivity. Where relevant, we also discuss experimental design problems for testing the underlying hypotheses. There is good empirical support for 6 of the 12 traits as sensitivity predictors: population size; population fluctuation and storage effects; traits associated with competitive ability and disturbance sensitivity in plants; microhabitat specialisation and matrix use; rarity in the form of low abundance within a habitat; and relative biogeographic position. Few clear patterns emerge for the remaining traits from empirical studies if examined in isolation. Consequently, interactions of species traits and environmental conditions must be considered if we want to be able to predict species sensitivity to fragmentation. We develop a classification of fragmentation sensitivity based on specific trait combinations and discuss the implications of the results for ecological theory.

951 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: These procedures use complementarity, a measure of the contribution each area in a region makes to the conservation goal, to estimate irreplaceability and flexibility, measures of the extent to which areas can be substituted for one another in order to take competing land uses into account.
Abstract: Biodiversity priority areas together should represent the biodiversity of the region they are situated in. To achieve this, biodiversity has to be measured, biodiversity goals have to be set and methods for implementing those goals have to be applied. Each of these steps is discussed. Because it is impossible to measure all of biodiversity, biodiversity surrogates have to be used. Examples are taxa sub-sets, species assemblages and environmental domains. Each of these has different strengths and weaknesses, which are described and evaluated. In real-world priority setting, some combination of these is usually employed. While a desirable goal might be to sample all of biodiversity from genotypes to ecosystems, an achievable goal is to represent, at some agreed level, each of the biodiversity features chosen as surrogates. Explicit systematic procedures for implementing such a goal are described. These procedures use complementarity, a measure of the contribution each area in a region makes to the conservation goal, to estimate irreplaceability and flexibility, measures of the extent to which areas can be substituted for one another in order to take competing land uses into account. Persistence and vulnerability, which also play an important role in the priority setting process, are discussed briefly.

377 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The relative concept of biodiversity built into the definition of complementarity has the level of precision needed to undertake conservation planning, and specifically captures the differences between places as the authors iterate the process of place prioritization.
Abstract: Biodiversity has acquired such a general meaning that people now find it difficult to pin down a precise sense for planning and policy-making aimed at biodiversity conservation. Because biodiversity is rooted in place, the task of conserving biodiversity should target places for conservation action; and because all places contain biodiversity, but not all places can be targeted for action, places have to be prioritized. What is needed for this is a measure of the extent to which biodiversity varies from place to place. We do not need a precise measure of biodiversity to prioritize places. Relative estimates of similarity or difference can be derived using partial measures, or what have come to be called biodiversity surrogates. Biodiversity surrogates are supposed to stand in for general biodiversity in planning applications. We distinguish between true surrogates, those that might truly stand in for general biodiversity, and estimator surrogates, which have true surrogates as their target variable. For example, species richness has traditionally been the estimator surrogate for the true surrogate, species diversity. But species richness does not capture the differences in composition between places; the essence of biodiversity. Another measure, called complementarity, explicitly captures the differences between places as we iterate the process of place prioritization, starting with an initial place. The relative concept of biodiversity built into the definition of complementarity has the level of precision needed to undertake conservation planning.

220 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work discusses how issues of vulnerability and persistence can and should be addressed at all stages of the conservation planning and implementation process and procedures for estimating the likelihood of persistence and measuring degrees of vulnerability at different spatial and temporal scales.
Abstract: An objective of biodiversity conservation activities is to minimize the exposure of biodiversity features to threatening processes and to ensure, as far as possible, that biodiversity persists in the landscape. We discuss how issues of vulnerability and persistence can and should be addressed at all stages of the conservation planning and implementation process. Procedures for estimating the likelihood of persistence and for measuring degrees of vulnerability at different spatial and temporal scales using subjective assessments, rules of thumb and analytical and simulation models are reviewed. The application of information on vulnerability and persistence to conservation planning and management is discussed under the headings of natural dynamics, replication of protection, levels of representation, source and sink population structures, refuges and critical resources, reserve design, habitat fragmentation and levels of management.

139 citations


Cited by
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols used xiii 1.
Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

14,171 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a theoretical explanation for the observed dependence of kappa on prevalence, and introduce an alternative measure of accuracy, the true skill statistic (TSS), which corrects for this dependence while still keeping all the advantages of Kappa.
Abstract: Summary 1In recent years the use of species distribution models by ecologists and conservation managers has increased considerably, along with an awareness of the need to provide accuracy assessment for predictions of such models. The kappa statistic is the most widely used measure for the performance of models generating presence–absence predictions, but several studies have criticized it for being inherently dependent on prevalence, and argued that this dependency introduces statistical artefacts to estimates of predictive accuracy. This criticism has been supported recently by computer simulations showing that kappa responds to the prevalence of the modelled species in a unimodal fashion. 2In this paper we provide a theoretical explanation for the observed dependence of kappa on prevalence, and introduce into ecology an alternative measure of accuracy, the true skill statistic (TSS), which corrects for this dependence while still keeping all the advantages of kappa. We also compare the responses of kappa and TSS to prevalence using empirical data, by modelling distribution patterns of 128 species of woody plant in Israel. 3The theoretical analysis shows that kappa responds in a unimodal fashion to variation in prevalence and that the level of prevalence that maximizes kappa depends on the ratio between sensitivity (the proportion of correctly predicted presences) and specificity (the proportion of correctly predicted absences). In contrast, TSS is independent of prevalence. 4When the two measures of accuracy were compared using empirical data, kappa showed a unimodal response to prevalence, in agreement with the theoretical analysis. TSS showed a decreasing linear response to prevalence, a result we interpret as reflecting true ecological phenomena rather than a statistical artefact. This interpretation is supported by the fact that a similar pattern was found for the area under the ROC curve, a measure known to be independent of prevalence. 5Synthesis and applications. Our results provide theoretical and empirical evidence that kappa, one of the most widely used measures of model performance in ecology, has serious limitations that make it unsuitable for such applications. The alternative we suggest, TSS, compensates for the shortcomings of kappa while keeping all of its advantages. We therefore recommend the TSS as a simple and intuitive measure for the performance of species distribution models when predictions are expressed as presence–absence maps.

3,518 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors quantify how much of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest still remains, and analyze its spatial distribution, and suggest some guidelines for conservation: (i) large mature forest fragments should be a conservation priority; (ii) smaller fragments can be managed in order to maintain functionally linked mosaics; (iii) the matrix surrounding fragments, and (iv) restoration actions should be taken, particularly in certain key areas.

3,199 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
28 Nov 2003
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions, and argue that a systematic analysis of local-scale land use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land use changes.
Abstract: We highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions. The review summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, tropical deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization and identifies the still unmeasured land-cover changes. Climate-driven land-cover modifications interact with land-use changes. Land-use change is driven by synergetic factor combinations of resource scarcity leading to an increase in the pressure of production on resources, changing opportunities created by markets, outside policy intervention, loss of adaptive capacity, and changes in social organization and attitudes. The changes in ecosystem goods and services that result from land-use change feed back on the drivers of land-use change. A restricted set of dominant pathways of land-use change is identified. Land-use change can be understood using the concepts of complex adaptive systems and transitions. Integrated, place-based research on land-use/land-cover change requires a combination of the agent-based systems and narrative perspectives of understanding. We argue in this paper that a systematic analysis of local-scale land-use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land-use changes.

2,491 citations