COVID-19 containment policies are not only curbing the spread of COVID-19 but also changing human behavior. According to the routine activity theory, owing to lockdown, the closure of entertainment sites (e.g., pubs and bars), an increase in stay-at-home time, and an increase in police patrols are likely to influence chance of committing a crime. In this study, we aimed to further examine the spatial association of COVID-19 infection rate and crime rate. Particularly, we empirically validated the speculation that increase in COVID-19 cases is likely to reduce crime rate. In the empirical study, we investigated whether and how COVID-19 infection rate is spatially associated with crime rate in London. As the spatial data used are mainly areal data, we adopted a spatial regression mode (i.e., the “random effects eigenvector spatial filtering model”) to investigate the spatial associations after controlling for the socioeconomic factors. More specifically, we investigated the associations for all the four crime categories in three consequent months (March, April, and May of 2020). The empirical results indicate that 1) crime rates of the four categories have no statistically significant associations with COVID-19 infection rate in March; 2) violence-against-the-person rate has no statistically significant association with COVID-19 infection rate; and 3) robbery rate, burglary rate, and theft and handling rate have a statistically significant and negative association with COVID-19 infection rate in both April and May.

/pdf/spatial-patterns-of-covid-19-incidence-in-relation-to-crime-3koxx18sqy.pdf

Spatial patterns of COVID-19 incidence in relation to crime rate across London

Research background: Although some authors propose that economic growth should reduce crime rates as wider opportunities to earn money in a legal way diminish the incentives to commit illegal activities and lead to rising costs of the latter, the results of many studies indicate that an increase in crime rates is also possible under the conditions of economic growth. There are also differing views on the relationship between various economic indicators and crime rates as well as the nature of the relationship between the above-mentioned phenomena in the long and short run.
Purpose of the article: After classifying the EU member states by their crime and economic indicators, the main objective of the article is to assess the relationship between the crime and economic development and identify the causes of this relationship.
Methods: Systematic and comparative literature analysis, the Promethee and Entropy methods, Spearman?s correlation coefficient.
Findings & value added: The Promethee method, together with the Entropy method, were used to estimate the weights of the EU member states with respect to their crime and economic development indicators. The most pronounced differences were recorded in Portugal, Spain, and the Slovak Republic. The rankings estimated for the EU member states revealed that although economic situation affects crime rate, it can also be affected by the differences in cultural and political development. Scientific novelty lies in complementing the theory of the shadow economy with the results showing that compared to other crimes, corruption has the greatest weight when examining the relationship between economic development and crime. The practical significance of the research lies in classifying the EU member states into 4 groups with consideration of the relationship between crime and economic development, which may help public authorities to devise the target measures for the effective fight against crime given the nature of the relationship between crime and economic development.

http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/eq/article/download/2171/2000

Links between crime and economic development: EU classification

In the latter half of 2020, Los Angeles was dubbed by the media and academicians as the latest epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States. Using time-series analysis on Los Angeles Police Department crime data from 2017 through 2020, this paper tests the economic theory of crime, routine activities theory, social isolation theory, household bargaining theory, and structural vulnerability theory to determine whether they accurately predicted specific crime rate movements in the wake of COVID-19 in the city of Los Angeles. Economic theory of crime and routine activities theory were mostly supported. Social isolation theory and household bargaining theory were partially supported. Structural vulnerability theory was not supported. Implications and future research are also discussed.

Crime in the New U.S. Epicenter of COVID-19

In the latter half of 2020, Los Angeles was dubbed by the media and academicians as the latest epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States. Using time-series analysis on Los Angeles Police Department crime data from 2017 through 2020, this paper tests the economic theory of crime, routine activities theory, social isolation theory, and structural vulnerability theory to determine whether they accurately predicted specific crime rate movements in the wake of COVID-19 in the city of Los Angeles. Economic theory of crime was supported by the data, and social isolation theory and structural vulnerability theory were partially supported. Routine activities theory was not supported. Implications for policymakers and academics are also discussed. 

/pdf/crime-in-the-new-u-s-epicenter-of-covid-19-3cxbpmri.pdf

Crime in the new U.S. epicenter of COVID-19

During imprisonment, inmates face many difficulties to adapt to prison life well depicted in either classical works or recent research. They usually face many struggles related to the lack of contact with their families. For instance, the less the number of prison visits, the higher levels of aggressiveness and, consequently, the lower levels of adaptation. Additionally, this population is already problematic in “normal conditions” of their imprisonment. When facing crisis – such as the Covid-19 pandemic – their mental and emotional conditions become even worst. Inmates may experience higher levels of anxiety and stress due to the uncertain and high-risk circumstances they are all living. In addition, the deprivations of the support from their families, combined with the higher risk they are exposed due to the danger of Covid-19 virus’ contamination, substantially increase their concerns and could contribute to their lack of adjustment. The present chapter refers to the policies implemented by the Portuguese Prison Administration to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and a provisional balance of its effects after one year of implementation. Besides information regarding inmate’s mental health conditions during pandemic, data on recidivism rates and criminal activity will also be discussed concerning their implication for future penitentiary policies.

/pdf/mental-health-issues-during-covid-19-pandemic-in-portuguese-53dm4s3vxs.pdf

Mental Health Issues during Covid-19 Pandemic in Portuguese Prisons

This paper analyzes the impact that the Covid-19 pandemic has had on corrections and crime in the southern region of Europe formed by Spain and Portugal. The main mechanisms of transmission of Covi...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15564886.2020.1827108

Carlos Soler

Papers

Corrections and Crime in Spain and Portugal during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Impact, Prevention and Lessons for the Future