Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Improving the design and implementation of evidence-based practice depends on successful behaviour change interventions. This requires an appropriate method for characterising interventions and linking them to an analysis of the targeted behaviour. There exists a plethora of frameworks of behaviour change interventions, but it is not clear how well they serve this purpose. This paper evaluates these frameworks, and develops and evaluates a new framework aimed at overcoming their limitations. A systematic search of electronic databases and consultation with behaviour change experts were used to identify frameworks of behaviour change interventions. These were evaluated according to three criteria: comprehensiveness, coherence, and a clear link to an overarching model of behaviour. A new framework was developed to meet these criteria. The reliability with which it could be applied was examined in two domains of behaviour change: tobacco control and obesity. Nineteen frameworks were identified covering nine intervention functions and seven policy categories that could enable those interventions. None of the frameworks reviewed covered the full range of intervention functions or policies, and only a minority met the criteria of coherence or linkage to a model of behaviour. At the centre of a proposed new framework is a 'behaviour system' involving three essential conditions: capability, opportunity, and motivation (what we term the 'COM-B system'). This forms the hub of a 'behaviour change wheel' (BCW) around which are positioned the nine intervention functions aimed at addressing deficits in one or more of these conditions; around this are placed seven categories of policy that could enable those interventions to occur. The BCW was used reliably to characterise interventions within the English Department of Health's 2010 tobacco control strategy and the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence's guidance on reducing obesity. Interventions and policies to change behaviour can be usefully characterised by means of a BCW comprising: a 'behaviour system' at the hub, encircled by intervention functions and then by policy categories. Research is needed to establish how far the BCW can lead to more efficient design of effective interventions.

/pdf/the-behaviour-change-wheel-a-new-method-for-characterising-4vp816z23u.pdf

The behaviour change wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions.

Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.

/pdf/international-norm-dynamics-and-political-change-37ig9r9dlq.pdf

International Norm Dynamics and Political Change

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfield of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

Risk as Feelings

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/JudgementAndChoice.MappingBoundedRationality.DKahneman2003.pdf

A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.

/pdf/introduction-to-symposium-homo-economicus-homo-myopicus-and-1azgqrttuq.pdf

Introduction to Symposium: Homo Economicus, Homo Myopicus, and the Law and Economics of Consumer Choice

/pdf/conflicting-values-in-law-40t3pcd817.pdf

Conflicting Values in Law

There are distortions in a system based on private preferences, analogous to the problems of "market failure" that frequently call for government action. Because of such distortions, significant dangers lie in any approach that would treat private preferences, as expressed in markets, as exogenous variables. Even outside of the traditional category of harm to others, the legal system does and should attempt to shape private choices. Whether the ultimate goal is liberty or welfare, there will often be important gains from government action that decides on ends rather than simply implements them.

/pdf/legal-interference-with-private-preferences-1sb0yobo8r.pdf

Legal Interference with Private Preferences

The fiftieth anniversary of the Administrative Procedure Act2 arrives at a time when administrative institutions are receiving more serious public attention than in any period since the New Deal. The New Deal was committed to immensely strengthened national institutions and to large and largely independent bureaucratic entities.3 These commitments are now under severe strain. Much of this was signalled by the election of President Reagan in 1980 and, in particular, by his promulgation of a controversial executive order calling for attention to the costs and benefits of regulatory initiatives.4 In 1993, it was firmly established that a new direction had been set, when President Clinton issued a new executive order that substantially overlapped with President Reagan's.5

Health-Health Tradeoffs

It is important for people to make good choices about important matters, such as health insurance or retirement plans. Sometimes it is best to ask people to make active choices. But in some contexts, people are busy or aware of their own lack of knowledge, and providing default options is best for choosers. If people elect not to choose or would do so if allowed, they should have that alternative. A simple framework, which assesses the costs of decisions and the costs of errors, can help policymakers decide whether active choosing or default options are more appropriate.

/pdf/active-choosing-or-default-rules-the-policymaker-s-dilemma-2jkc1006o7.pdf

Cass R. Sunstein

Papers

Introduction to Symposium: Homo Economicus, Homo Myopicus, and the Law and Economics of Consumer Choice

Conflicting Values in Law

Legal Interference with Private Preferences

Health-Health Tradeoffs

Active choosing or default rules?: The policymaker's dilemma