Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Improving the design and implementation of evidence-based practice depends on successful behaviour change interventions. This requires an appropriate method for characterising interventions and linking them to an analysis of the targeted behaviour. There exists a plethora of frameworks of behaviour change interventions, but it is not clear how well they serve this purpose. This paper evaluates these frameworks, and develops and evaluates a new framework aimed at overcoming their limitations. A systematic search of electronic databases and consultation with behaviour change experts were used to identify frameworks of behaviour change interventions. These were evaluated according to three criteria: comprehensiveness, coherence, and a clear link to an overarching model of behaviour. A new framework was developed to meet these criteria. The reliability with which it could be applied was examined in two domains of behaviour change: tobacco control and obesity. Nineteen frameworks were identified covering nine intervention functions and seven policy categories that could enable those interventions. None of the frameworks reviewed covered the full range of intervention functions or policies, and only a minority met the criteria of coherence or linkage to a model of behaviour. At the centre of a proposed new framework is a 'behaviour system' involving three essential conditions: capability, opportunity, and motivation (what we term the 'COM-B system'). This forms the hub of a 'behaviour change wheel' (BCW) around which are positioned the nine intervention functions aimed at addressing deficits in one or more of these conditions; around this are placed seven categories of policy that could enable those interventions to occur. The BCW was used reliably to characterise interventions within the English Department of Health's 2010 tobacco control strategy and the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence's guidance on reducing obesity. Interventions and policies to change behaviour can be usefully characterised by means of a BCW comprising: a 'behaviour system' at the hub, encircled by intervention functions and then by policy categories. Research is needed to establish how far the BCW can lead to more efficient design of effective interventions.

/pdf/the-behaviour-change-wheel-a-new-method-for-characterising-4vp816z23u.pdf

The behaviour change wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions.

Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.

/pdf/international-norm-dynamics-and-political-change-37ig9r9dlq.pdf

International Norm Dynamics and Political Change

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfield of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

Risk as Feelings

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/JudgementAndChoice.MappingBoundedRationality.DKahneman2003.pdf

A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.

The rise of the blogosphere raises important questions about the elicitation and aggregation of information, and about democracy itself. Do blogs allow people to check information and correct errors? Can we understand the blogosphere as operating as a kind of marketplace for information along Hayekian terms? Or is it a vast public meeting of the kind that Jurgen Habermas describes? In this article, I argue that the blogosphere cannot be understood as a Hayekian means for gathering dispersed knowledge because it lacks any equivalent of the price system. I also argue that forces of polarization characterize the blogosphere as they do other social interactions, making it an unlikely venue for Habermasian deliberation, and perhaps leading to the creation of information cocoons. I conclude by briefly canvassing partial responses to the problem of polarization.

Neither Hayek nor Habermas

The concept of "irreversibility" plays a large role in the theory and practice of environmental protection. Indeed, the concept is explicit in some statements of the Precautionary Principle. But the idea of irreversibility remains poorly defined. Because time is linear, any loss is, in a sense, irreversible. On one approach, drawn from environmental economics, irreversibility might be understood as a reference to the value associated with taking precautionary steps that maintain flexibility for an uncertain future ("option value"). On another approach, drawn from environmental ethics, irreversibility might be understood to refer to the qualitatively distinctive nature of certain environmental harms - a point that raises a claim about incommensurability. The two conceptions fit different problems. For example, the idea of option value best fits the problem of climate change; the idea of qualitatively distinctive harms best fits the problem of extinction of endangered species. These ideas can be applied to a wide assortment of environmental problems.

/pdf/two-conceptions-of-irreversible-environmental-harm-3r2rh0q61k.pdf

Two Conceptions of Irreversible Environmental Harm

/pdf/group-judgments-statistical-means-deliberation-and-55wzvez91z.pdf

Group Judgments: Statistical Means, Deliberation, and Information Markets

In this article I explore two claims and discuss their implications for law. The first claim is that human values are plural and diverse. By this I mean that we value things, events, and relationships in ways that are not reducible to some larger and more encompassing value. The second claim is that human goods are not commensurable. By this I mean that such goods are not assessed along a single metric. For reasons to be explored, the two claims, though related, are importantly different.

/pdf/incommensurability-and-valuation-in-law-1ec6bonzuj.pdf

Incommensurability and Valuation in Law

Over the past two decades, applying cost benefit analysis (CBA) to new regulations has become accepted practice. Many of the major issues being debated today concern how - not whether - agencies use CBA to carry out their mandates. This timely guide The Cost-Benefit State The Future of Regulatory Protection by Cass R. Sunstein examines new trends in CBA and how courts are responding in contested cases. The book analyzes the legality of actions taken by the EPA, OSHA, CPSC, and other agencies. Highly readable, the guide explores conflicting interests surrounding such complex issues as: * Setting a value on human life and health * The developing law of judicial review of CBA and Risk Assessment * Requiring agencies to take account of costs, to exempt trivial risks, and to consider the substitute risks introduced by regulation * Minimizing the influence of special interest groups * Protecting future generations' interests Updated in light of the September 11 attacks, the book focuses special attention on airport security, bioterrorism, recent regulatory actions of the Bush Administration, and other timely issues. A well-recognized authority on law and regulatory policy, Professor Sunstein uses concrete examples and offers common sense approaches to balancing conflicting interests. He points out the inherent danger of overreacting to low-risk threats and neglecting high-risk threats. Valuable tables are included throughout the text, such as a chart detailing the value of human life set by various federal agencies. The fact-filled appendix features information on costs and benefits for ozone and particulates, two of the most highly publicized air pollutants, and a primer for citizens and lawyers, showing dose-response curves involving the possible effects of cancer-causing substances. Also included are the OMB best practices guidelines, which have had a large influence in the federal government, and which are likely to have a larger effect in the future. Lawyers, economists, political scientists, and policy-makers, as well as members of the general public, will find Professor Sunstein's insights invaluable in following the ongoing debates over the best approach for reducing environmental, health, and safety risks, including the risks posed by terrorism. This important guide will be of particular value to administrative and government lawyers, as well as those in the environmental and health law fields.

Cass R. Sunstein

Papers

Neither Hayek nor Habermas

Two Conceptions of Irreversible Environmental Harm

Group Judgments: Statistical Means, Deliberation, and Information Markets

Incommensurability and Valuation in Law

The Cost-Benefit State: The Future of Regulatory Protection