Author
Charles R. Marshall
Other affiliations: University of Illinois at Chicago, University of Chicago, University of California, Los Angeles ...read more
Bio: Charles R. Marshall is an academic researcher from University of California, Berkeley. The author has contributed to research in topics: Extinction & Extinction event. The author has an hindex of 43, co-authored 94 publications receiving 11334 citations. Previous affiliations of Charles R. Marshall include University of Illinois at Chicago & University of Chicago.
Papers published on a yearly basis
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TL;DR: Differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence understanding of the current extinction crisis, and results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record.
Abstract: Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.
3,051 citations
University of California, Berkeley1, Stanford University2, Spanish National Research Council3, University of New Mexico4, American Museum of Natural History5, University of California, Davis6, Simon Fraser University7, California Academy of Sciences8, University of Wisconsin-Madison9, University of California, San Francisco10, Missouri Botanical Garden11
TL;DR: Evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence is reviewed, highlighting the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions.
Abstract: There is evidence that human influence may be forcing the global ecosystem towards a rapid, irreversible, planetary-scale shift into a state unknown in human experience. Most forecasts of how the biosphere will change in response to human activity are rooted in projecting trajectories. Such models tend not anticipate critical transitions or tipping points, although recent work indicates a high probability of those taking place. And, at a local scale, ecosystems are known to shift abruptly between states when critical thresholds are passed. These authors review the evidence from across ecology and palaeontology that such a transition is being approached on the scale of the entire biosphere. They go on to suggest how biological forecasting might be improved to allow us to detect early warning signs of critical transitions on a global, as well as local, scale. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.
1,571 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: In this text the demise of the dinosaurs is put into the proper context of other extinction events and all proposed extinction mechanisms - climate change, meteorite impact, volcanisms - are critically assessed.
Abstract: This is a systematic review of the major mass extinctions in the history of life. It covers all groups of organisms - plant, animal, terrestrial, and marine - that have become extinct alongside the geological and sedimentological evidence for environmental changes during the biotic crises. All proposed extinction mechanisms - climate change, meteorite impact, volcanisms - are critically assessed. In this text the demise of the dinosaurs is put into the proper context of other extinction events. This book is intended for undergraduates in Europe and graduate students in the US, studying geology, palaeontology, or evolutionary biology, and their teachers. It should also be of interest to research scientists in adjacent subjects.
948 citations
University of California, Santa Barbara1, Humboldt University of Berlin2, University of Southern California3, University of Chicago4, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg5, University of South Florida6, Yale University7, University of Cincinnati8, University of Georgia9, Syracuse University10, Smithsonian Institution11, Harvard University12, Natural History Museum13, Texas A&M University14, Pennsylvania State University15, University of Wisconsin-Madison16, Aix-Marseille University17, California State University, Fullerton18, University of California, Santa Cruz19, College of William & Mary20, University of Colorado Boulder21, Duke University22, Slovak Academy of Sciences23, University of North Carolina at Wilmington24
TL;DR: In this paper, a new data set of fossil occurrences representing 3.5 million specimens was presented, and it was shown that global and local diversity was less than twice as high in the Neogene as in the mid-Paleozoic.
Abstract: It has previously been thought that there was a steep Cretaceous and Cenozoic radiation of marine invertebrates. This pattern can be replicated with a new data set of fossil occurrences representing 3.5 million specimens, but only when older analytical protocols are used. Moreover, analyses that employ sampling standardization and more robust counting methods show a modest rise in diversity with no clear trend after the mid-Cretaceous. Globally, locally, and at both high and low latitudes, diversity was less than twice as high in the Neogene as in the mid-Paleozoic. The ratio of global to local richness has changed little, and a latitudinal diversity gradient was present in the early Paleozoic.
650 citations
University of California, Santa Barbara1, Harvard University2, Virginia Tech3, University of Cincinnati4, University of Chicago5, University of Würzburg6, Western Washington University7, University of Georgia8, University of Michigan9, University of California, Los Angeles10, Field Museum of Natural History11, Duke University12, Indiana University13, Pennsylvania State University14, University of California, San Diego15
TL;DR: A new database of this kind for the Phanerozoic fossil record of marine invertebrates is introduced and four substantially distinct analytical methods that estimate taxonomic diversity by quantifying and correcting for variation through time in the number and nature of inventories are applied.
Abstract: Global diversity curves reflect more than just the number of taxa that have existed through time: they also mirror variation in the nature of the fossil record and the way the record is reported. These sampling effects are best quantified by assembling and analyzing large numbers of locality-specific biotic inventories. Here, we introduce a new database of this kind for the Phanerozoic fossil record of marine invertebrates. We apply four substantially distinct analytical methods that estimate taxonomic diversity by quantifying and correcting for variation through time in the number and nature of inventories. Variation introduced by the use of two dramatically different counting protocols also is explored. We present sampling-standardized diversity estimates for two long intervals that sum to 300 Myr (Middle Ordovician-Carboniferous; Late Jurassic-Paleogene). Our new curves differ considerably from traditional, synoptic curves. For example, some of them imply unexpectedly low late Cretaceous and early Tertiary diversity levels. However, such factors as the current emphasis in the database on North America and Europe still obscure our view of the global history of marine biodiversity. These limitations will be addressed as the database and methods are refined.
456 citations
Cited by
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TL;DR: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols used xiii 1.
Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201
14,171 citations
Australian National University1, Stockholm Resilience Centre2, University of Copenhagen3, McGill University4, Stellenbosch University5, University of Wisconsin-Madison6, Wageningen University and Research Centre7, Stockholm University8, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences9, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research10, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation11, International Livestock Research Institute12, University College London13, Stockholm Environment Institute14, University of California, San Diego15, The Energy and Resources Institute16, Royal Institute of Technology17
TL;DR: An updated and extended analysis of the planetary boundary (PB) framework and identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the Earth system (ES) is likely to remain low—a “safe operating space” for global societal development.
Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.
7,169 citations
Harvard University1, Stockholm Resilience Centre2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, University of Oxford4, City University London5, World Wide Fund for Nature6, Chatham House7, Environmental Change Institute8, University of Minnesota9, University of California, Santa Barbara10, CGIAR11, Johns Hopkins University12, American University of Beirut13, Wageningen University and Research Centre14, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation15, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur16, ETH Zurich17, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation18, University of Indonesia19, World Health Organization20, Food and Agriculture Organization21, International Food Policy Research Institute22, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences23, University of Auckland24, Public Health Foundation of India25, Centre for Science and Environment26
TL;DR: Food in the Anthropocene : the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems focuses on meat, fish, vegetables and fruit as sources of protein.
4,710 citations
TL;DR: Differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence understanding of the current extinction crisis, and results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record.
Abstract: Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.
3,051 citations
TL;DR: Overall, this review shows that current estimates of future biodiversity are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered.
Abstract: Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.
2,834 citations