Vegetation cover is important to the stability of regional ecosystems and is a focus of research on the relationship between natural and human environments. Although some studies have investigated the association between changes in vegetation cover and various influencing factors, these have shortcomings in quantifying direct and indirect effects. In this study, MOD13Q1 enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data for Anhui Province, China, were acquired between 2000 and 2020. The univariate linear regression, coefficient of variation and Hurst index methods were used to analyze spatial and temporal trends and fluctuations in the EVI between 2000 and 2020 and predict future trends. The impact of land-use change on EVI change was explored using 2000 and 2020 land-use data. Finally, a structural equation model (SEM) was used to quantify the effects of topography, annual average temperature, annual precipitation and human activity changes on EVI variation in Anhui Province. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the overall EVI in Anhui Province showed a fluctuating trend that increased at a rate of 0.0181·10a−1, and 67.1% of the study area showed a greening trend. The EVI was relatively stable in most regions, with regions of fluctuating EVI being mostly affected by urbanization. For a period after 2020, the overall EVI change will exhibit anti-sustainability and will likely decrease. (2) Among the regions of EVI increase, 72.2% had no change in land-use type, while 10.8% and 6.6% changed to farmland and woodland land uses, respectively. Among the regions where EVI decreased, 69.9% had no change in land-use type, while 13.7% changed from farmland to construction land. (3) Overall, human activity change was the main influence on EVI change, which was mainly reflected in the negative impacts of accelerated urbanization. Topography had direct and indirect effects on EVI variations in Central and Southern Anhui. Annual precipitation change had a stronger impact on EVI variation in Northern and Central Anhui than in Southern Anhui, while annual average temperature change had a small impact in the entire province. Compared with other study methods, SEM provides a new approach to quantifying the influences of vegetation cover dynamics. In addition, the results of this study have important implications for ecological environmental protection and sustainable development in Anhui Province.

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Quantifying the Influences of Driving Factors on Vegetation EVI Changes Using Structural Equation Model: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China

The middle reaches of the Yangtze River region (MRYRR) are China’s first trans-regional urban agglomeration, located in the center of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The MRYRR is an important ecological reserve, and its land cover changes are affected by both socio-economic development and geographical environment. In this paper, Landsat ETM/TM/OLI remote sensing images were used to monitor land use and landscape patterns from 1990 to 2015. Through supervised classification, land use transfer matrix, landscape pattern metrics and correlation analysis, the spatial-temporal patterns of land use change and its relationship with socio-economic in the study area were revealed. The results showed that: (1) the main land use types in the study area were cropland (CL) and forestland (FL), accounting for more than three-quarters of the study area. During the study period, built-up land (BL) increased, CL decreased, FL increased first and then decreased; (2) the BL expanded mainly by occupying CL and FL, and regional landscape pattern was gradually fragmented, with complex patch shape and increasing diversity and heterogeneity. Among them, the BL is gradually gathered, and the FL and CL are gradually fragmented; (3) in the past 25 years, the urbanization process in this region has been obvious, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased by 36 times. The socioeconomic variables were positively correlated with BL, orchard (OL) and Shannon diversity index (SHID), and negatively correlated with CL, Wasteland (WL), mean patch size (MPS) and contagion size (CONTAG). The results showed that the urbanization development has a great impact on the region, and the ecological protection task is still challenging. It is necessary to protect high-quality cropland and draw a red line for ecological protection. We should strengthen the construction of ecological corridors and ecological nodes to adapt to regional sustainable development.

Effects of Urbanization on Landscape Patterns in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region

With the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization, the contradiction between the social economy and resources and the environment has become increasingly prominent. On the basis of limited land resources, the way to promote multi-objective comprehensive development such as economic, social development and ecological and environmental protection through structure and layout regulation, so as to maximize regional comprehensive benefits, is an important task of current land spatial planning. Our aim is to obtain land-use-change data in the study area using remote-sensing data inversion and multiple-model simulation. Based on land suitability evaluation, we predict and optimize the land use structure of the study area in 2030 and evaluate and compare ecosystem services. Based on remote-sensing images and eco-environmental data from 1985 to 2014 in the study area, land use/land cover change (LUCC) and future simulation data were obtained by using supervised classification, landscape metrics and the CA-Markov model. The ecosystem services were evaluated by the InVEST model. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to evaluate the land suitability for LUCC. Finally, the LUCC in 2030 under two different scenarios, Scenario_1 (prediction) and Scenario_2 (optimization), were evaluated, and the ecosystem service functions were compared. In the last 30 years, the landscape in the study area has gradually fragmented, and the built-up land has expanded rapidly, increased by one-third, mainly at the cost of cropland, orchards and wasteland. According to the suitability evaluation, giving priority to the land use types with higher environmental requirements will ensure the study area has a higher ecosystem service value. The rapid development of urbanization has a far-reaching impact on regional LUCC. Intensive land resources need reasonable and scientific land use planning, and land use planning should be based on the suitability evaluation of land resources, which can improve the regional ecosystem service function.

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Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Prediction and Optimization of LUCC Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models: A Case Study of Mentougou District, Beijing

The combined impacts of drastic natural environment change and increasing human interference are making the uncertainty of the Tibetan Plateau’s ecological vulnerability the world’s largest. In this study, an ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of Tibet in the core area of the Tibetan Plateau was assessed using a selected set of ecological, social, and economic indicators and using a spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) to calculate their weights. The data included Landsat images and socio-economic data from 1990 to 2015 in five-year intervals. The results showed that the total EVI remained at a high vulnerability level, with drastic fluctuation from 1990 to 2000 (a peak in 1995, when there was a sudden increase in light vulnerability, which moved to extreme vulnerability in the next period), and minor fluctuations after 2000, gradually increasing from southeast to northwest. In addition, the spatial analysis showed a distinct positive correlation between the EVI and grassland area (0.33), land use degree (0.15), NDVI (0.14), livestock husbandry output, and a negative correlation in terms of desertification area. The artificial afforestation program (AAP) had a positive significant correlation with NDVI (R2 = 0.88), preventing the environment from becoming more vulnerable. The results provide practical information and suggestions for planners to improve the land use degree in urban areas and the vegetation coverage in pastoral regions of the Tibetan Plateau based on the spatial–temporal heterogeneity patterns of the EVI of Tibet.

A Long-Term Ecological Vulnerability Analysis of the Tibetan Region of Natural Conditions and Ecological Protection Programs

This paper intends to clarify that the spatial and temporal evolutionary patterns of regional vegetation and their relationship with climate form a premise of ecological conservation and environmental governance, and play an important role in maintaining regional ecosystem balance and promoting sustainable development. Based on measured data collected from NDVI remote sensing products and meteorological stations, NDVI variation in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2019 was determined through trend analysis and measurement methods involving coefficient of variation and Hurst index; in addition, the response to climatic factors was also explored. It was concluded that, firstly, in terms of spatiotemporal analysis, the interannual variation of NDVI in Anhui Province showed an increasing trend with a rate of 0.024/10 a, while the monthly variation showed a weak bimodal pattern, with the highest value in August and the lowest value in January. Furthermore, NDVI in Anhui Province showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with high values concentrated in mountainous regions in southern Anhui and Dabie Mountain region, and low values concentrated in the hilly areas of Jianghuai and areas along the Yangtze River. At the same time, the overall spatial variation of NDVI showed an increasing trend, and the areas with extremely significant and significant improvement in vegetation coverage accounted for 54.69% of the total area of Anhui Province. Secondly, in terms of the analysis on variation characteristics, the variation of NDVI in Anhui Province was generally stable, with an average CV coefficient of variation of 0.089, which, however, was quite different in different regions; meanwhile, the future trend of NDVI variation in the study areas was mostly in a random manner. Thirdly, the response of NDVI in Anhui Province to climatic factors showed significant spatial heterogeneity. NDVI was found to be positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature; in general, the impact of precipitation on NDVI was greater than that of temperature. In the 19 years studied, NDVI in Anhui Province showed an increasing trend; and climate, topography and human activities led to heterogeneous spatial distribution of vegetation. Therefore, in the future, the evolutionary trend of vegetation will be relatively random, and NDVI will be more greatly affected by temperature, than by precipitation.

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Spatiotemporal Variation of NDVI in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2019 and Its Response to Climatic Factors

The temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR) were analyzed from 1999 to 2015 by trend analysis, co-integration analysis, partial correlation analysis, and spatial analysis using MODIS-NDVI time series remote sensing data. The average NDVI of the MRYR increased from 0.72 to 0.80, and nearly two-thirds of the vegetation showed a significant trend of improvement. At the inter-annual scale, the relationship between NDVI and meteorological factors was not significant in most areas. At the inter-monthly scale, NDVI was almost significantly correlated with precipitation, relative humidity, and sunshine hours, and the effect of precipitation and sunshine hours on NDVI showed a pronounced lag. When the altitude was less than 2500 m, NDVI increased with elevation. NDVI increased gradually as the slope increased and decreased gradually as the slope aspect changed from north to south. NDVI decreased as the population density and per capita GDP increased and was significantly positively correlated with afforestation policy. These findings provide new insights into the effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation growth.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/15/2036/pdf

Chen Zhang

Papers

Variation in Vegetation and Its Driving Force in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River in China

Effects of Urbanization on Landscape Patterns in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region