Chris Volinsky

Bio: Chris Volinsky is an academic researcher from AT&T Labs. The author has contributed to research in topics: Word of mouth & Viral marketing. The author has an hindex of 28, co-authored 41 publications receiving 18527 citations. Previous affiliations of Chris Volinsky include AT&T & University of Washington.

Matrix Factorization Techniques for Recommender Systems

Abstract: As the Netflix Prize competition has demonstrated, matrix factorization models are superior to classic nearest neighbor techniques for producing product recommendations, allowing the incorporation of additional information such as implicit feedback, temporal effects, and confidence levels

Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial

Abstract: Standard statistical practice ignores model uncertainty. Data analysts typically select a model from some class of models and then proceed as if the selected model had generated the data. This approach ignores the uncertainty in model selection, leading to over-confident inferences and decisions that are more risky than one thinks they are. Bayesian model averaging (BMA)provides a coherent mechanism for accounting for this model uncertainty. Several methods for implementing BMA have recently emerged. We discuss these methods and present a number of examples.In these examples, BMA provides improved out-of-sample predictive performance. We also provide a catalogue of currently available BMA software.

Collaborative Filtering for Implicit Feedback Datasets

Abstract: A common task of recommender systems is to improve customer experience through personalized recommendations based on prior implicit feedback. These systems passively track different sorts of user behavior, such as purchase history, watching habits and browsing activity, in order to model user preferences. Unlike the much more extensively researched explicit feedback, we do not have any direct input from the users regarding their preferences. In particular, we lack substantial evidence on which products consumer dislike. In this work we identify unique properties of implicit feedback datasets. We propose treating the data as indication of positive and negative preference associated with vastly varying confidence levels. This leads to a factor model which is especially tailored for implicit feedback recommenders. We also suggest a scalable optimization procedure, which scales linearly with the data size. The algorithm is used successfully within a recommender system for television shows. It compares favorably with well tuned implementations of other known methods. In addition, we offer a novel way to give explanations to recommendations given by this factor model.

Network-Based Marketing: Identifying Likely Adopters via Consumer

Abstract: Network-based marketing refers to a collection of marketing techniques that take advantage of links between consumers to increase sales. We concentrate on the consumer networks formed using direct interactions (e.g., communications) between consumers. We survey the diverse literature on such marketing with an emphasis on the statis- tical methods used and the data to which these methods have been applied. We also provide a discussion of challenges and opportunities for this burgeoning research topic. Our survey highlights a gap in the literature. Because of inadequate data, prior studies have not been able to provide direct, statistical support for the hypothesis that network linkage can directly affect product/service adoption. Using a new data set that represents the adoption of a new telecommunications service, we show very strong support for the hypothesis. Specifically, we show three main results: (1) "Network neighbors"—those consumers linked to a prior customer—adopt the service at a rate 3-5 times greater than baseline groups selected by the best practices of the firm's marketing team. In addition, analyzing the network allows the firm to acquire new customers who otherwise would have fallen through the cracks, because they would not have been identified based on traditional attributes. (2) Statistical models, built with a very large amount of geographic, de- mographic and prior purchase data, are significantly and substantially improved by including network information. (3) More detailed network information allows the ranking of the network neighbors so as to permit the selection of small sets of individuals with very high probabilities of adoption.

Network-Based Marketing: Identifying Likely Adopters Via Consumer Networks

Abstract: Network-based marketing refers to a collection of marketing techniques that take advantage of links between consumers to increase sales. We concentrate on the consumer networks formed using direct interactions (e.g., communications) between consumers. We survey the diverse literature on such marketing with an emphasis on the statistical methods used and the data to which these methods have been applied. We also provide a discussion of challenges and opportunities for this burgeoning research topic. Our survey highlights a gap in the literature. Because of inadequate data, prior studies have not been able to provide direct, statistical support for the hypothesis that network linkage can directly affect product/service adoption. Using a new data set that represents the adoption of a new telecommunications service, we show very strong support for the hypothesis. Specifically, we show three main results: (1) “Network neighbors”—those consumers linked to a prior customer—adopt the service at a rate 3–5 times greater than baseline groups selected by the best practices of the firm’s marketing team. In addition, analyzing the network allows the firm to acquire new customers who otherwise would have fallen through the cracks, because they would not have been identified based on traditional attributes. (2) Statistical models, built with a very large amount of geographic, demographic and prior purchase data, are significantly and substantially improved by including network information. (3) More detailed network information allows the ranking of the network neighbors so as to permit the selection of small sets of individuals with very high probabilities of adoption.

Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit

Abstract: Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the ‘hat’ matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding pD to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.

Matrix Factorization Techniques for Recommender Systems

Abstract: As the Netflix Prize competition has demonstrated, matrix factorization models are superior to classic nearest neighbor techniques for producing product recommendations, allowing the incorporation of additional information such as implicit feedback, temporal effects, and confidence levels

Multimodel Inference Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection

Abstract: The model selection literature has been generally poor at reflecting the deep foundations of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and at making appropriate comparisons to the Bayesian information...

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

Abstract: Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Natural Language Processing (Almost) from Scratch

Abstract: We propose a unified neural network architecture and learning algorithm that can be applied to various natural language processing tasks including part-of-speech tagging, chunking, named entity recognition, and semantic role labeling. This versatility is achieved by trying to avoid task-specific engineering and therefore disregarding a lot of prior knowledge. Instead of exploiting man-made input features carefully optimized for each task, our system learns internal representations on the basis of vast amounts of mostly unlabeled training data. This work is then used as a basis for building a freely available tagging system with good performance and minimal computational requirements.