Christian Mullon

Bio: Christian Mullon is an academic researcher from University of Cape Town. The author has contributed to research in topics: Fisheries management & Population. The author has an hindex of 27, co-authored 62 publications receiving 2886 citations. Previous affiliations of Christian Mullon include Institut de recherche pour le développement.

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate

Abstract: Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.

The dynamics of collapse in world fisheries

Abstract: The fear of a rapid depletion of world fish stocks because of over-exploitation is increasing. Analysis of 1519 main series of the FAO world fisheries catch database over the last 50 years reveals that 366 fisheries’ collapses occurred, that is nearly one fishery of four. The robustness of this result is tested by performing several complementary analyses using different conservative options. The number of collapses has been stable through time since 1950s indicating no improvement in the overall fisheries management. Three typical patterns emerge from the analysis of catch series during the period preceding the collapses: smooth collapse (33%), i.e. a long regular decline, erratic collapse (45%), i.e. a fall after several ups and downs, and a plateau-shaped collapse (21%), i.e. a sudden fall after a relatively long and stable persistence of high level of catches. Using a simple mathematical model, we relate the plateau-shaped collapses (which are, by nature, the most difficult to predict) to surreptitiously increasing exploitation and a depensatory mechanism at low population levels. Thus, a stable level of catch over several years is shown to conceal the risk of a sudden collapse. This jeopardizes the common assumption that considers the stability of catch as a goal for fisheries sustainability.

Short communication: A Lagrangian tool for modelling ichthyoplankton dynamics

Abstract: Ichthyop is a free Java tool designed to study the effects of physical and biological factors on ichthyoplankton dynamics. It incorporates the most important processes involved in fish early life: spawning, movement, growth, mortality and recruitment. The tool uses as input time series of velocity, temperature and salinity fields archived from ROMS or MARS oceanic models. It runs with a user-friendly graphic interface and generates output files that can be post-processed easily using graphic and statistical software.

An environmental modelling approach : the use of multi-agent simulations

Abstract: S'agissant de l'horizon a long terme, du futur de l'environnement et des choix qui gouvernent son evolution, il est montre que la simulation a partir des systemes multi-agents est potentiellement tres riche. Cette methode de simulation est capable de modeliser des processus d'interaction entre les agents aussi bien en termes de dynamique sociale et dynamique naturelle. Cette methode devrait egalement permettre d'analyser de facon fine plusieurs questions de base dans l'evolution des relations societe-nature (Resume d'auteur)

Viability theory for an ecosystem approach to fisheries

Abstract: Maintenance of overall ecosystem complexity is perceived as critical to the sustainability of ecosystem use. The development of an operational basis for an ecosystem approach to fisheries, however, faces many difficulties. On the research side, the challenge is in defining proper long-term, ecosystem-related objectives; determining meaningful reference values and indicators for desirable or undesirable states of the ecosystem; and developing appropriate data collection, analytical tools and models. The “viability” concept developed in economics by Jean-Pierre Aubin can be used to assist in the definition, selection of, and interaction among long-term objectives at an ecosystem level. It recognizes that ecosystems are complex assemblages of interacting and self-organizing natural and human components that cannot be predicted. Viability models define an ensemble of “viable states”, in contrast to undesirable states defined as such by ecological, economic, and/or social constraints. These constraints can be derived from fisheries objectives, conservation principles, scientific results of modelling, or precautionary principles, and correspond to limit reference points to be avoided. Viability theory does not attempt to choose any “optimal solution” according to given criteria, but selects “viable evolutions”. These evolutions are compatible with the constraints in the sense that they satisfy them at each time and can be delineated by the viability kernel. The southern Benguela marine ecosystem is presented as a first attempt for the application of this theory. In defining ecosystem-based objectives (and related issues such as target reference points), it seems more difficult to reach consensus among stakeholders on what is desirable than on what is undesirable (e.g. biological or economic collapse, species extinction, displacement of local rural communities). Expressed in the negative form or as limit reference points, ecosystem-based constraints can be considered simultaneously with current target reference points, such as maximum sustainable yield, using viability models. The viability approach can help to progressively integrate ecosystem considerations, such as conservation, into fisheries management.

Citation classic - optimal foraging - a selective review of theory and tests

Abstract: Beginning with Emlen (1966) and MacArthur and Pianka (1966) and extending through the last ten years, several authors have sought to predict the foraging behavior of animals by means of mathematical models. These models are very similar,in that they all assume that the fitness of a foraging animal is a function of the efficiency of foraging measured in terms of some "currency" (Schoener, 1971) -usually energy- and that natural selection has resulted in animals that forage so as to maximize this fitness. As a result of these similarities, the models have become known as "optimal foraging models"; and the theory that embodies them, "optimal foraging theory." The situations to which optimal foraging theory has been applied, with the exception of a few recent studies, can be divided into the following four categories: (1) choice by an animal of which food types to eat (i.e., optimal diet); (2) choice of which patch type to feed in (i.e., optimal patch choice); (3) optimal allocation of time to different patches; and (4) optimal patterns and speed of movements. In this review we discuss each of these categories separately, dealing with both the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions. The review is selective in the sense that we emphasize studies that either develop testable predictions or that attempt to test predictions in a precise quantitative manner. We also discuss what we see to be some of the future developments in the area of optimal foraging theory and how this theory can be related to other areas of biology. Our general conclusion is that the simple models so far formulated are supported are supported reasonably well by available data and that we are optimistic about the value both now and in the future of optimal foraging theory. We argue, however, that these simple models will requre much modification, espicially to deal with situations that either cannot easily be put into one or another of the above four categories or entail currencies more complicated that just energy.

Individual-based modeling and ecology

Abstract: Individual-based modeling is a new, exciting discipline that allows ecologists to explore, using computer simulations, how properties of populations and ecosystems might evolve from the characteristics and behaviors of individual organisms. Individual-based Modeling and Ecology, written by Volker Grimm and Steven F. Railsback, gives an excellent introduction and overview of this field. It should be read by everyone interested in individual-based modeling, and especially by anyone contemplating developing, or being involved with a group developing, an individualbased model.

Position Paper: Modelling with stakeholders

Abstract: Stakeholder engagement, collaboration, or participation, shared learning or fact-finding, have become buzz words and hardly any environmental assessment or modelling effort today can be presented without some kind of reference to stakeholders and their involvement in the process. This is clearly a positive development, but in far too many cases stakeholders have merely been paid lip service and their engagement has consequentially been quite nominal. Nevertheless, it is generally agreed that better decisions are implemented with less conflict and more success when they are driven by stakeholders, that is by those who will be bearing their consequences. Participatory modelling, with its various types and clones, has emerged as a powerful tool that can (a) enhance the stakeholders knowledge and understanding of a system and its dynamics under various conditions, as in collaborative learning, and (b) identify and clarify the impacts of solutions to a given problem, usually related to supporting decision making, policy, regulation or management. In this overview paper we first look at the different types of stakeholder modelling, and compare participatory modelling to other frameworks that involve stakeholder participation. Based on that and on the experience of the projects reported in this issue and elsewhere, we draw some lessons and generalisations. We conclude with an outline of some future directions.

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Abstract: Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world’s least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world’s poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world’s fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.