Christin Loran

Bio: Christin Loran is an academic researcher from Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Land use & Old-growth forest. The author has an hindex of 4, co-authored 4 publications receiving 64 citations.

Long-term change in drivers of forest cover expansion : an analysis for Switzerland (1850-2000)

Abstract: The spatial distribution of forests in Europe represents the legacy of centuries of human land use decisions. Due to the limited availability of historical data, most studies on forest cover change focus only on analyzing recent decades, thereby overlooking the important long-term context. However, the latter is essential to improve our understanding of present landscape patterns. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics in drivers of forest gain in Switzerland. Specifically, we model forest gain in a long-term study covering 150 years (1850–2000) split into periods of similar length (∼30 years). This makes it possible to identify non-linear dynamics and whether drivers have changed over time. The rates of forest change are quantified based on analyzing historical maps and contemporary forest inventory data. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are fitted to examine the variation in the relative importance of socioeconomic and biophysical explanatory variables. Our results suggest that both biophysical and socioeconomic variables co-drive forest gain. Biophysical variables (such as temperature and slope) were identified as the major drivers explaining variations in forest gain. The most important socioeconomic driver was the change in the percentage of people employed per economic sector, although its effect came with a substantial time lag. Changes in employment per sector for the periods 1920–1941 and 1941–1980 were relevant for forest gain between 1980 and 2000. The identified time lag effect emphasizes the added value of long-term studies, since legacies may persist for decades, adding further complexity to contemporary land change processes. These findings are relevant to many temperate ecosystems that are experiencing increases in forest cover. Such insights can improve both future forest change predictions as well as the development of policies for sustainable landscape management.

Evaluating forest transition based on a multi-scale approach: forest area dynamics in Switzerland 1850–2000

Abstract: A trend of forest area expansion after decades of decline is taking place in many countries around the globe. In Switzerland, forest cover has been expanding since at least the mid-nineteenth century. However, little is known about the patterns of forest area dynamics on a long-term, national scale, nor regarding the precise time of forest transition (FT). In the present study, we reconstruct the trajectories of forest cover over the past 150 years based on historical maps and contemporary national forest inventory data for the purpose of analyzing forest area dynamics at multi-spatial scales. At the national scale, total forest area increased continuously from around 20 % in 1850 to 30 % in 2000, while ancient forest area decreased from 20 % in 1850 down to 11 % in 2000. FT events occurred at the regional scale in the Eastern, Southern and Western Alps around 1880. Since then, forest area has almost doubled in the Southern Alps. In contrast, the Central Plateau is the biogeographical region with the most stable forest cover. The results from the analysis at the local scale confirm the high dynamics in forest cover throughout the study period, causing a steady decline in ancient forest area. These variations in forest cover dynamics confirm the crucial importance of the choice of spatial scale. Historical maps were essential for this long-term study.

Change and persistence: exploring the driving forces of long-term forest cover dynamics in the Swiss lowlands

Abstract: By the end of the twentieth century, the forest cover over most of Europe had stabilized or was increasing after many decades of decline. Persistence and change in forest cover are driven by complex human–environmental interactions and feedback loops operating on different temporal and spatial scales. A promising method to detect these complex interactions between driving forces is a causal analysis based on historical documents. In the first step of this study, forest cover was reconstructed based on historical and contemporary maps of the Canton of Zurich at seven different points in time between 1664 and 2000. Secondly, causal chains of drivers were constructed based on historical document analysis, in order to investigate whether forest cover was stable or whether any compensating mechanisms in place were reducing the net changes. While the overall net forest cover remained considerably persistent in the Canton of Zurich throughout the 336-year study period, major gross forest cover losses and gains were detected during certain periods. Major deforestation events occurred during times of crisis, e.g., at times of economic or political crisis. In contrast, the strong persistence of net forest cover was mainly a consequence of the Forest Police Law, but can also be attributed to intensive land use. The law prohibits deforestation in general, and intensive land use is preventing the kind of natural reforestation occurring in other regions, e.g., the Swiss Alps. These empirical findings shed light on the relevance of a high degree of political and economic stability in terms of maintaining landscape persistence. These insights into the driving forces of forest cover change and persistence can contribute to protecting and managing valuable landscapes in a rapidly changing world.

Comparing historical and contemporary maps - a methodological framework for a cartographic map comparison applied to Swiss maps

Abstract: Topographic maps are powerful tools for the purpose of identifying land use and cover change (LUCC) as they are among the most reliable representations of past landscapes for the time prior to the ...

Why Landscapes of the Past are Important for the Future

Abstract: Landscapes change because they are the expression of the dynamic interaction between natural and cultural forces in the environment. Cultural landscapes are the result of consecutive reorganization of the land in order to adapt its use and spatial structure better to the changing societal demands. Particularly in Europe, history has recorded many successive and even devastating landscape changes, which have left barely any relics today. Today, the changes are seen as a menace, as a negative evolution because they cause a loss of diversity, coherence and identity, which were characteristic for the traditional cultural landscapes that are rapidly vanishing. This growing concern is also expressed in the European Landscape Convention, which will be used as a start for the analysis in this article. Three periods of landscape dynamics are considered: the traditional landscapes before the important changes that started in the 18th century, the landscapes of the revolutions age of the 19th to 20th century, and the post-modern new landscapes. The combined effect of the driving forces such as accessibility, urbanization, globalization and the impact of calamities have been different in each of the periods and affected the nature and pace of the changes as well as the perception people have had about the landscape. Values change accordingly and so does the way of using and shaping the landscape. It is argued that this changing perception also influences what kind and aspects of landscapes are studied, protected and managed. Diversity and identity of cultural landscapes are central in the discussion. It is shown that coherence between small composing elements in a broader spatial context is important for the legibility of the landscape and that the ability to tell the (his)story of a place strongly enhances the identity and the overall value. This offers criteria for inventorying and assessing landscapes, which is needed to define future management and development. Although the general trends of future development of the European landscapes are rather well known, planning and managing future landscape remains difficult and extremely uncertain. The processes and management in past traditional landscapes and the manifold relations people have towards the perceivable environment and the symbolic meaning it generates, offer valuable knowledge for more sustainable planning and management for future landscapes.

Forest Landscape Change and Preliminary Study on Its Driving Forces in Ślęża Landscape Park (Southwestern Poland) in 1883–2013

Abstract: Changes in forest landscapes have been connected with human activity for centuries and can be considered one of the main driving forces of change from a global perspective. The spatial distribution of forests changes along with the geopolitical situation, demographic changes, intensification of agriculture, urbanization, or changes in land use policy. However, due to the limited availability of historical data, the driving forces of changes in forest landscapes are most often considered in relation to recent decades, without taking long-term analyses into account. The aim of this paper is to determine the level and types of landscape changes and make preliminary study on natural and socio-economic factors on changes in forest landscapes within the protected area, Śleza Landscape Park, and its buffer zone using long-term analyses covering a period of 140 years (1883–2013). A comparison of historical and current maps and demographic data related to three consecutive periods of time as well as natural and location factors by using the ArcGIS software allows the selected driving forces of forest landscape transformations to be analyzed. We took into account natural factors such as the elevation, slope, and exposure of the hillside and socio-economic drivers like population changes, distances to centers of municipalities, main roads, and built-up areas.