Author
Christina Schädel
Other affiliations: University of Oklahoma, University of Florida, University of Basel ...read more
Bio: Christina Schädel is an academic researcher from Northern Arizona University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Permafrost & Soil carbon. The author has an hindex of 23, co-authored 44 publications receiving 4232 citations. Previous affiliations of Christina Schädel include University of Oklahoma & University of Florida.
Topics: Permafrost, Soil carbon, Climate change, Tundra, Soil water
Papers
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Northern Arizona University1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Florida3, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research4, United States Geological Survey5, Oak Ridge National Laboratory6, Stockholm University7, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory8, National Center for Atmospheric Research9, Woods Hole Research Center10, University of Alberta11, Tyumen State Oil and Gas University12, University of Guelph13, University of New Hampshire14, Utrecht University15
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
Abstract: Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
2,282 citations
University of Arizona1, United States Forest Service2, University of Colorado Boulder3, University of Massachusetts Amherst4, United States Geological Survey5, University of California, Merced6, University of Hawaii at Manoa7, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign8, Dartmouth College9, University of Wisconsin-Madison10, University of Pennsylvania11, Northern Arizona University12, University of California, Santa Barbara13, Max Planck Society14, University of Georgia15
TL;DR: In this article, the authors demonstrate that other physicochemical parameters are much stronger predictors of SOM content, with clay content having relatively little explanatory power, whereas with increasing moisture availability and acidity, iron-and aluminum-oxyhydroxides emerged as better predictors.
Abstract: Improved quantification of the factors controlling soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization at continental to global scales is needed to inform projections of the largest actively cycling terrestrial carbon pool on Earth, and its response to environmental change Biogeochemical models rely almost exclusively on clay content to modify rates of SOM turnover and fluxes of climate-active CO2 to the atmosphere Emerging conceptual understanding, however, suggests other soil physicochemical properties may predict SOM stabilization better than clay content We addressed this discrepancy by synthesizing data from over 5,500 soil profiles spanning continental scale environmental gradients Here, we demonstrate that other physicochemical parameters are much stronger predictors of SOM content, with clay content having relatively little explanatory power We show that exchangeable calcium strongly predicted SOM content in water-limited, alkaline soils, whereas with increasing moisture availability and acidity, iron- and aluminum-oxyhydroxides emerged as better predictors, demonstrating that the relative importance of SOM stabilization mechanisms scales with climate and acidity These results highlight the urgent need to modify biogeochemical models to better reflect the role of soil physicochemical properties in SOM cycling
378 citations
Northern Arizona University1, Forest Research Institute2, University of Eastern Finland3, University of Florida4, Sewanee: The University of the South5, University of Exeter6, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation7, University of Alberta8, Oak Ridge National Laboratory9, Michigan Technological University10, University of Hamburg11, National University of Singapore12, Woods Hole Research Center13, National Park Service14, Marine Biological Laboratory15, University of Alaska Fairbanks16, University of Guelph17, United States Geological Survey18
TL;DR: In this paper, a meta-analysis of soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone suggests that thawing under aerobic conditions, which releases CO2, will strengthen the carbon feedback more than waterlogged systems, which release CO2 and CH4.
Abstract: A meta-analysis of soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone suggests that thawing under aerobic conditions, which releases CO2, will strengthen the permafrost carbon feedback more than waterlogged systems, which releases CO2 and CH4. Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw1, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition2. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions3,4 that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear5,6. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO2 and CH4 for a given amount of C.
290 citations
University of Alaska Fairbanks1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory3, Met Office4, Auburn University5, Oak Ridge National Laboratory6, Los Alamos National Laboratory7, St. Francis Xavier University8, University of Grenoble9, Beijing Normal University10, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research11, University of Maine12, University of Lapland13, Chinese Academy of Sciences14, University of Tyumen15, Northern Arizona University16, University of Colorado Boulder17, Purdue University18
TL;DR: A model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of thepermafrost carbon–climate feedback.
Abstract: We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.
280 citations
University of Florida1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Vermont3, Max Planck Society4, Bowdoin College5, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research6, Florida State University7, Lund University8, Centre national de la recherche scientifique9, Idaho State University10, University of California11, United States Geological Survey12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13, Stockholm University14, Argonne National Laboratory15, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory16, National Center for Atmospheric Research17, National Park Service18, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences19, University of Oxford20, University of Guelph21, Los Alamos National Laboratory22
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change and found that approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafure zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere.
Abstract: Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
278 citations
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01 Jan 2016
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5,249 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations
Northern Arizona University1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Florida3, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research4, United States Geological Survey5, Oak Ridge National Laboratory6, Stockholm University7, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory8, National Center for Atmospheric Research9, Woods Hole Research Center10, University of Alberta11, Tyumen State Oil and Gas University12, University of Guelph13, University of New Hampshire14, Utrecht University15
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
Abstract: Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
2,282 citations
Stockholm Resilience Centre1, Stockholm University2, University of Copenhagen3, University of Exeter4, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences5, University of Arizona6, Scott Polar Research Institute7, Stanford University8, Université catholique de Louvain9, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research10, Australian National University11, Wageningen University and Research Centre12, University of Potsdam13
TL;DR: The risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced is explored.
Abstract: We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
1,685 citations
1,327 citations