Christof Appenzeller

Bio: Christof Appenzeller is an academic researcher from MeteoSwiss. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & North Atlantic oscillation. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 70 publications receiving 7791 citations. Previous affiliations of Christof Appenzeller include University of Bern & ETH Zurich.

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

Abstract: Instrumental observations1,2 and reconstructions3,4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past ∼150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5,6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

Seasonal variation of mass transport across the tropopause

Abstract: The annual cycle of the net mass transport across the extratropical tropopause is examined. Contributions from both the global-scale meridional circulation and the mass variation of the lowermost stratosphere are included. For the northern hemisphere the mass of the lowermost stratosphere has a distinct annual cycle, whereas for the southern hemisphere, the corresponding variation is weak. The net mass transport across the tropopause in the northern hemisphere has a maximum in late spring and a distinct minimum in autumn. This variation and its magnitude compare well with older estimates based on representative Sr-90 mixing ratios. For the southern hemisphere the seasonal cycle of the net mass transport is weaker and follows roughly the annual variation of the net mass flux across a nearby isentropic surface.

North Atlantic Oscillation Dynamics Recorded in Greenland Ice Cores

Abstract: Carefully selected ice core data from Greenland can be used to reconstruct an annual proxy North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index This index for the past 350 years indicates that the NAO is an intermittent climate oscillation with temporally active (coherent) and passive (incoherent) phases No indication for a single, persistent, multiannual NAO frequency is found In active phases, most of the energy is located in the frequency band with periods less than about 15 years In addition, variability on time scales of 80 to 90 years has been observed since the mid-19th century

Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections

Abstract: Multimodel combination is a pragmatic approach to estimating model uncertainties and to making climate projections more reliable. The simplest way of constructing a multimodel is to give one vote to each model (‘‘equal weighting’’), while more sophisticated approaches suggest applying model weights according to some measure of performance (‘‘optimum weighting’’). In this study, a simple conceptual model of climate change projections is introduced and applied to discuss the effects of model weighting in more generic terms. The results confirm that equally weighted multimodels on average outperform the single models, and that projection errors can in principle be further reduced by optimum weighting. However, this not only requires accurate knowledge of the single model skill, but the relative contributions of the joint model error and unpredictable noise also need to be known to avoid biased weights. If weights are applied that do not appropriatelyrepresentthetrueunderlyinguncertainties,weightedmultimodelsperformonaverageworsethan equally weighted ones, which is a scenario that is not unlikely, given that at present there is no consensus on how skill-basedweights can be obtained.Particularly when internal variabilityis large, more information may be lost by inappropriate weighting than could potentially be gained by optimum weighting. These results indicate that for many applications equal weighting may be the safer and more transparent way to combine models. However, also within the presented framework eliminating models from an ensemble can be justified if they are known to lack key mechanisms that are indispensable for meaningful climate projections.

Ozone trends: A review

Abstract: Ozone plays a very important role in our atmosphere because it protects any living organisms at the Earth's surface against the harmful solar UVB and UVC radiation. In the stratosphere, ozone plays a critical role in the energy budget because it absorbs both solar UV and terrestrial IR radiation. Further, ozone in the tropopause acts as a strong greenhouse gas, and increasing ozone trends at these altitudes contribute to climate change. This review contains a short description of the various techniques that provided atmospheric ozone measurements valuable for long-term trend analysis. The anthropogenic emissions of substances that deplete ozone (chlorine- and bromine-containing volatile gases) have increased from the 1950s until the second half of the 1980s. The most severe consequence of the anthropogenic release of ozone-depleting substances is the “Antarctic ozone hole.” Long-term observations indicate that stratospheric ozone depletion in the southern winter-spring season over Antarctica started in the late 1970s, leading to a strong decrease in October total ozone means. Present values are only approximately half of those observed prior to 1970. In the Arctic, large ozone depletion was observed in winter and spring in some recent years. Satellite and ground-based measurements show no significant trends in the tropics but significant long-term decreasing trends in the northern and southern midlatitudes (of the order of 2–4% per decade in the period from 1970 to 1996 and an acceleration in trends in the 1980s). Ozone at northern midlatitudes decreased by −7.4±2% per decade at 40 km above mean sea level, while ozone loss was small at 30 km. Large trends were found in the lower stratosphere, −5.1±1.8% at 20 km and −7.3±4.6% at 15 km, where the bulk of the ozone resides. The possibility of a reduction in the observed trends has been discussed recently, but it is very hard to distinguish this from the natural variability. As a consequence of the Montreal Protocol process, the emissions of ozone-depleting substances have decreased since the late 1980s. Chlorine is no longer increasing in the stratosphere, although the total bromine amount is still increasing. Considering anthropogenic emissions of substances that deplete ozone, the turnaround in stratospheric ozone trends is expected to take place in the coming years. However, anthropogenic climate change could have a large influence on the future evolution of the Earth's ozone shield.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003

Abstract: Future climate warming is expected to enhance plant growth in temperate ecosystems and to increase carbon sequestration. But although severe regional heatwaves may become more frequent in a changing climate their impact on terrestrial carbon cycling is unclear. Here we report measurements of ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes, remotely sensed radiation absorbed by plants, and country-level crop yields taken during the European heatwave in 2003.We use a terrestrial biosphere simulation model to assess continental-scale changes in primary productivity during 2003, and their consequences for the net carbon balance. We estimate a 30 per cent reduction in gross primary productivity over Europe, which resulted in a strong anomalous net source of carbon dioxide (0.5 Pg Cyr21) to the atmosphere and reversed the effect of four years of net ecosystem carbon sequestration. Our results suggest that productivity reduction in eastern and western Europe can be explained by rainfall deficit and extreme summer heat, respectively. We also find that ecosystem respiration decreased together with gross primary productivity, rather than accelerating with the temperature rise. Model results, corroborated by historical records of crop yields, suggest that such a reduction in Europe's primary productivity is unprecedented during the last century. An increase in future drought events could turn temperate ecosystems into carbon sources, contributing to positive carbon-climate feedbacks already anticipated in the tropics and at high latitudes.

More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century

Abstract: A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.