Christopher Daly

Bio: Christopher Daly is an academic researcher from Oregon State University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Precipitation. The author has an hindex of 36, co-authored 72 publications receiving 10254 citations. Previous affiliations of Christopher Daly include University of Colorado Boulder & Hudson Institute of Medical Research.

A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain

Abstract: The demand for climatological precipitation fields on a regular grid is growing dramatically as ecological and hydrological models become increasingly linked to geographic information systems that spatially represent and manipulate model output. This paper presents an analytical model that distributes point measurements of monthly and annual precipitation to regularly spaced grid cells in midlatitude regions. PRISM (Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) brings a combination of climatological and statistical concepts to the analysis of orographic precipitation. Specifically, PRISM 1) uses a digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate the “orographic” elevations of precipitation stations; 2) uses the DEM and a windowing technique to group stations onto individual topographic facets; 3) estimates precipitation at a DEM grid cell through a regression of precipitation versus DEM elevation developed from stations on the cell's topographic facet; and 4) when possible, calculates...

Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States

Abstract: Spatial climate data sets of 1971–2000 mean monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature were developed for the conterminous United States These 30-arcsec (∼800-m) grids are the official spatial climate data sets of the US Department of Agriculture The PRISM (Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model) interpolation method was used to develop data sets that reflected, as closely as possible, the current state of knowledge of spatial climate patterns in the United States PRISM calculates a climate–elevation regression for each digital elevation model (DEM) grid cell, and stations entering the regression are assigned weights based primarily on the physiographic similarity of the station to the grid cell Factors considered are location, elevation, coastal proximity, topographic facet orientation, vertical atmospheric layer, topographic position, and orographic effectiveness of the terrain Surface stations used in the analysis numbered nearly 13 000 for precipitation and 10 000 for temperature Station data were spatially quality controlled, and short-period-of-record averages adjusted to better reflect the 1971–2000 period PRISM interpolation uncertainties were estimated with cross-validation (C-V) mean absolute error (MAE) and the 70% prediction interval of the climate–elevation regression function The two measures were not well correlated at the point level, but were similar when averaged over large regions The PRISM data set was compared with the WorldClim and Daymet spatial climate data sets The comparison demonstrated that using a relatively dense station data set and the physiographically sensitive PRISM interpolation process resulted in substantially improved climate grids over those of WorldClim and Daymet The improvement varied, however, depending on the complexity of the region Mountainous and coastal areas of the western United States, characterized by sparse data coverage, large elevation gradients, rain shadows, inversions, cold air drainage, and coastal effects, showed the greatest improvement The PRISM data set benefited from a peer review procedure that incorporated local knowledge and data into the development process Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate

Abstract: The demand for spatial climate data in digital form has risen dramatically in recent years. In response to this need, a variety of statistical techniques have been used to facilitate the pro- duction of GIS-compatible climate maps. However, observational data are often too sparse and unrepresentative to directly support the creation of high-quality climate maps and data sets that truly represent the current state of knowledge. An effective approach is to use the wealth of expert knowl- edge on the spatial patterns of climate and their relationships with geographic features, termed 'geospatial climatology', to help enhance, control, and parameterize a statistical technique. Described here is a dynamic knowledge-based framework that allows for the effective accumulation, application, and refinement of climatic knowledge, as expressed in a statistical regression model known as PRISM (parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model). The ultimate goal is to develop an expert system capable of reproducing the process a knowledgeable climatologist would use to create high-quality climate maps, with the added benefits of consistency and repeata- bility. However, knowledge must first be accumulated and evaluated through an ongoing process of model application; development of knowledge prototypes, parameters and parameter settings; test- ing; evaluation; and modification. This paper describes the current state of a knowledge-based framework for climate mapping and presents specific algorithms from PRISM to demonstrate how this framework is applied and refined to accommodate difficult climate mapping situations. A weighted climate-elevation regression function acknowledges the dominant influence of elevation on climate. Climate stations are assigned weights that account for other climatically important factors besides elevation. Aspect and topographic exposure, which affect climate at a variety of scales, from hill slope to windward and leeward sides of mountain ranges, are simulated by dividing the terrain into topographic facets. A coastal proximity measure is used to account for sharp climatic gradients near coastlines. A 2-layer model structure divides the atmosphere into a lower boundary layer and an upper free atmosphere layer, allowing the simulation of temperature inversions, as well as mid-slope precipitation maxima. The effectiveness of various terrain configurations at producing orographic precipitation enhancement is also estimated. Climate mapping examples are presented.

Guidelines for assessing the suitability of spatial climate data sets

Abstract: Spatial climate data are often key drivers of computer models and statistical analyses, which form the basis for scientific conclusions, management decisions, and other important outcomes. The recent availability of very high-resolution climate data sets raises important questions about the tendency to equate resolution with realism. This paper discusses the relationship between scale and spatial climate-forcing factors, and provides background and advice on assessing the suitability of data sets. Spatial climate patterns are most affected by terrain and water bodies, primarily through the direct effects of elevation, terrain-induced climate transitions, cold air drainage and inversions, and coastal effects. The importance of these factors is generally lowest at scales of 100 km and greater, and becomes greatest at less than 10 km. Except in densely populated regions of developed countries, typical station spacing is on the order of 100 km. Regions without major terrain features and which are at least 100 km from climatically important coastlines can be handled adequately by most interpolation techniques. Situations characterized by significant terrain features, but with no climatically important coastlines, no rain shadows, and a well-mixed atmosphere can be reasonably handled by methods that explicitly account for elevation effects. Regions having significant terrain features, and also significant coastal effects, rain shadows, or cold air drainage and inversions are best handled by sophisticated systems that are configured and evaluated by experienced climatologists. There is no one satisfactory method for quantitatively estimating errors in spatial climate data sets, because the field that is being estimated is unknown between data points. Perhaps the best overall way to assess errors is to use a combination of approaches, involve data that are as independent from those used in the analysis as possible, and use common sense in the interpretation of results. Data set developers are encouraged to conduct expert reviews of their draft data sets, which is probably the single most effective way to improve data set quality. Copyright  2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

The Prism Approach to Mapping Precipitation and Temperature

Abstract: PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) is a climate analysis system that uses point data, a digital elevation model (DEM), and other spatial datasets to generate gridded estimates of annual, monthly and event-based climatic parameters (Daly et al. 1994). Originally developed in 1991 for precipitation estimation, PRISM has been generalized and applied successfully to temperature, snowfall, growing degree-days, and weather generator parameters, among others (Johnson et al.1997, Taylor et al. 1997). It has been used extensively to map precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature over the United States, Canada, and other countries (Kittel et al. 1997, Parzybok et al. 1997). PRISM development and application are the focus of a growing research program at Oregon State University aimed at producing environmental maps with unprecedented accuracy and detail.

Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.

Abstract: We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, were restricted to records from the 1950–2000 period. We used the thin-plate smoothing spline algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN package for interpolation, using latitude, longitude, and elevation as independent variables. We quantified uncertainty arising from the input data and the interpolation by mapping weather station density, elevation bias in the weather stations, and elevation variation within grid cells and through data partitioning and cross validation. Elevation bias tended to be negative (stations lower than expected) at high latitudes but positive in the tropics. Uncertainty is highest in mountainous and in poorly sampled areas. Data partitioning showed high uncertainty of the surfaces on isolated islands, e.g. in the Pacific. Aggregating the elevation and climate data to 10 arc min resolution showed an enormous variation within grid cells, illustrating the value of high-resolution surfaces. A comparison with an existing data set at 10 arc min resolution showed overall agreement, but with significant variation in some regions. A comparison with two high-resolution data sets for the United States also identified areas with large local differences, particularly in mountainous areas. Compared to previous global climatologies, ours has the following advantages: the data are at a higher spatial resolution (400 times greater or more); more weather station records were used; improved elevation data were used; and more information about spatial patterns of uncertainty in the data is available. Owing to the overall low density of available climate stations, our surfaces do not capture of all variation that may occur at a resolution of 1 km, particularly of precipitation in mountainous areas. In future work, such variation might be captured through knowledgebased methods and inclusion of additional co-variates, particularly layers obtained through remote sensing. Copyright  2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification

Abstract: Although now over 100 years old, the classification of climate originally formulated by Wladimir Koppen and modified by his collaborators and successors, is still in widespread use. It is widely used in teaching school and undergraduate courses on climate. It is also still in regular use by researchers across a range of disciplines as a basis for climatic regionalisation of variables and for assessing the output of global climate models. Here we have produced a new global map of climate using the Koppen-Geiger system based on a large global data set of long-term monthly precipitation and temperature station time series. Climatic variables used in the Koppen-Geiger system were calculated at each station and interpolated between stations using a two-dimensional (latitude and longitude) thin-plate spline with tension onto a 0.1°×0.1° grid for each continent. We discuss some problems in dealing with sites that are not uniquely classified into one climate type by the Koppen-Geiger system and assess the outcomes on a continent by continent basis. Globally the most common climate type by land area is BWh (14.2%, Hot desert) followed by Aw (11.5%, Tropical savannah). The updated world Koppen-Geiger climate map is freely available electronically in the Supplementary Material Section.

WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas

Abstract: We created a new dataset of spatially interpolated monthly climate data for global land areas at a very high spatial resolution (approximately 1 km2). We included monthly temperature (minimum, maximum and average), precipitation, solar radiation, vapour pressure and wind speed, aggregated across a target temporal range of 1970–2000, using data from between 9000 and 60 000 weather stations. Weather station data were interpolated using thin-plate splines with covariates including elevation, distance to the coast and three satellite-derived covariates: maximum and minimum land surface temperature as well as cloud cover, obtained with the MODIS satellite platform. Interpolation was done for 23 regions of varying size depending on station density. Satellite data improved prediction accuracy for temperature variables 5–15% (0.07–0.17 °C), particularly for areas with a low station density, although prediction error remained high in such regions for all climate variables. Contributions of satellite covariates were mostly negligible for the other variables, although their importance varied by region. In contrast to the common approach to use a single model formulation for the entire world, we constructed the final product by selecting the best performing model for each region and variable. Global cross-validation correlations were ≥ 0.99 for temperature and humidity, 0.86 for precipitation and 0.76 for wind speed. The fact that most of our climate surface estimates were only marginally improved by use of satellite covariates highlights the importance having a dense, high-quality network of climate station data.