Christopher J L Murray

Bio: Christopher J L Murray is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 209, co-authored 754 publications receiving 310329 citations. Previous affiliations of Christopher J L Murray include Harvard University & University of Washington.

Aspirin use and knowledge in the community: a population- and health facility based survey for measuring local health system performance.

Abstract: Little is known about the relationship between cardiovascular risk, disease and actual use of aspirin in the community. The Measuring Disparities in Chronic Conditions (MDCC) study is a community and health facility-based survey designed to track disparities in the delivery of health interventions for common chronic diseases. MDCC includes a survey instrument designed to collect detailed information about aspirin use. In King County, WA between 2011 and 2012, we surveyed 4633 white, African American, or Hispanic adults (45% home address-based sample, 55% health facility sample). We examined self-reported counseling on, frequency of use and risks of aspirin for all respondents. For a subgroup free of CAD or cerebral infarction that underwent physical examination, we measured 10-year coronary heart disease risk and blood salicylate concentration. Two in five respondents reported using aspirin routinely while one in five with a history of CAD or cerebral infarction and without contraindication did not report routine use of aspirin. Women with these conditions used less aspirin than men (65.0% vs. 76.5%) and reported more health problems that would make aspirin unsafe (29.4% vs. 21.2%). In a subgroup undergoing phlebotomy a third of respondents with low cardiovascular risk used aspirin routinely and only 4.6% of all aspirin users had no detectable salicylate in their blood. In this large urban county where health care delivery should be of high quality, there is insufficient aspirin use among those with high cardiovascular risk or disease and routine aspirin use by many at low risk. Further efforts are needed to promote shared-decision making between patients and clinicians as well as inform the public about appropriate use of routine aspirin to reduce the burden of atherosclerotic vascular disease.

Trimmed Constrained Mixed Effects Models: Formulations and Algorithms

Abstract: Mixed effects (ME) models inform a vast array of problems in the physical and social sciences, and are pervasive in meta-analysis. We consider ME models where the random effects component is linear. We then develop an efficient approach for a broad problem class that allows nonlinear measurements, priors, and constraints, and finds robust estimates in all of these cases using trimming in the associated marginal likelihood. The software accompanying this paper is disseminated as an open-source Python package called LimeTr. LimeTr is able to recover results more accurately in the presence of outliers compared to available packages for both standard longitudinal analysis and meta-analysis, and is also more computationally efficient than competing robust alternatives. Supplementary materials that reproduce the simulations, as well as run LimeTr and third party code are available online. We also present analyses of global health data, where we use advanced functionality of LimeTr, including constraints to impose monotonicity and concavity for dose-response relationships. Nonlinear observation models allow new analyses in place of classic approximations, such as log-linear models. Robust extensions in all analyses ensure that spurious data points do not drive our understanding of either mean relationships or between-study heterogeneity.

Maximizing Antiretroviral Therapy in Developing Countries: The Dual Challenge of Efficiency and Quality

Abstract: The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been one of the great achievements of global health in the last decade. Declines in deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS in high-income countries following the adoption of highly active ART starting in 1996 are well documented. In low-resource settings, demographic surveil lance sites have recorded marked decreases in death rates with the scale-up of ART. In its modeling efforts, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that global mortality declined by 35% from 2005 to 2013, with much of the decline related to ART scale-up.1 The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) collaboration recently estimated that 19 million extra years of life have been gained as a result of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.2 The massive global investment in HIV/AIDS programs was of critical importance to this increase in use of ART. Development assistance for health (DAH)— resources flowing from high-income to lowand

Global cancer statistics

Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

Global cancer statistics, 2012

Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008.

Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 cancers in 2008 have been prepared for 182 countries as part of the GLOBOCAN series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In this article, we present the results for 20 world regions, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers. Overall, an estimated 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occur in 2008, with 56% of new cancer cases and 63% of the cancer deaths occurring in the less developed regions of the world. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide are lung (1.61 million, 12.7% of the total), breast (1.38 million, 10.9%) and colorectal cancers (1.23 million, 9.7%). The most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.38 million, 18.2% of the total), stomach cancer (738,000 deaths, 9.7%) and liver cancer (696,000 deaths, 9.2%). Cancer is neither rare anywhere in the world, nor mainly confined to high-resource countries. Striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.

Global strategy for the diagnosis, management, and prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: GOLD executive summary.

Abstract: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health problem. It is the fourth leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in the United States, and is projected to rank fifth in 2020 in burden of disease worldwide, according to a study published by the World Bank/World Health Organization. Yet, COPD remains relatively unknown or ignored by the public as well as public health and government officials. In 1998, in an effort to bring more attention to COPD, its management, and its prevention, a committed group of scientists encouraged the U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the World Health Organization to form the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). Among the important objectives of GOLD are to increase awareness of COPD and to help the millions of people who suffer from this disease and die prematurely of it or its complications. The first step in the GOLD program was to prepare a consensus report, Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, published in 2001. The present, newly revised document follows the same format as the original consensus report, but has been updated to reflect the many publications on COPD that have appeared. GOLD national leaders, a network of international experts, have initiated investigations of the causes and prevalence of COPD in their countries, and developed innovative approaches for the dissemination and implementation of COPD management guidelines. We appreciate the enormous amount of work the GOLD national leaders have done on behalf of their patients with COPD. Despite the achievements in the 5 years since the GOLD report was originally published, considerable additional work is ahead of us if we are to control this major public health problem. The GOLD initiative will continue to bring COPD to the attention of governments, public health officials, health care workers, and the general public, but a concerted effort by all involved in health care will be necessary.

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.