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Christopher J L Murray

Bio: Christopher J L Murray is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 209, co-authored 754 publications receiving 310329 citations. Previous affiliations of Christopher J L Murray include Harvard University & University of Washington.


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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The statistical analysis showed that DAH to government had a negative and significant effect on domestic government spending on health such that for every US$1 of DAHto government, government health expenditures from domestic resources were reduced, and strong standardised monitoring of government health expenditure and government spending in other health-related sectors was recommended.

476 citations

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TL;DR: Despite a regional variation, the most common cancers are potentially preventable and cancer burden estimation by taking into account both mortality and morbidity is an essential step to set research priorities and policy formulation.
Abstract: Mortality estimates alone are not sufficient to understand the true magnitude of cancer burden. We present the detailed estimates of mortality and incidence by site as the basis for the future estimation of cancer burden for the Global Burden of Disease 2000 study. Age- and sex- specific mortality envelope for all malignancies by region was derived from the analysis of country life-tables and cause of death. We estimated the site-specific cancer mortality distributions from vital records and cancer survival model. The regional cancer mortality by site is estimated by disaggregating the regional cancer mortality envelope based on the mortality distribution. Estimated incidence-to-mortality rate ratios were used to back calculate the final cancer incidence estimates by site. In 2000, cancer accounted for over 7 million deaths (13% of total mortality) and there were more than 10 million new cancer cases world wide in 2000. More than 60% of cancer deaths and approximately half of new cases occurred in developing regions. Lung cancer was the most common cancers in the world, followed by cancers of stomach, liver, colon and rectum, and breast. There was a significant variations in the distribution of site-specific cancer mortality and incidence by region. Despite a regional variation, the most common cancers are potentially preventable. Cancer burden estimation by taking into account both mortality and morbidity is an essential step to set research priorities and policy formulation. Also it can used for setting priorities when combined with data on costs of interventions against cancers.

475 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Heather Orpana1, Heather Orpana2, Laurie B. Marczak3, Megha Arora3  +338 moreInstitutions (173)
06 Feb 2019-BMJ
TL;DR: Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide and can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.

472 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The higher proportion of lifespan spent disabled in high-mortality populations is consistent with the compression of morbidity hypothesis and the threshold definition of disability used substantially affects the results of DFLE, DALE, which incorporates severity weights for disabilities, is a useful summary measure of the burden of disability and mortality.

466 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Ettore Beghi, Giorgia Giussani, Emma Nichols, Foad Abd-Allah, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Mina G. Adib, Sutapa Agrawal, Fares Alahdab, Ashish Awasthi, Yohanes Ayele, Miguel A Barboza, Abate Bekele Belachew, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Helen Bitew, Félix Carvalho, Yazan Chaiah, Ahmad Daryani, Huyen Phuc Do, Manisha Dubey, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Meaza Girma Degefa, Elena V. Gnedovskaya, Tekleberhan B. Hagos, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Simon I. Hay, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Amir Kasaeian, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Yousef Khader, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Jagdish Khubchandani, Adnan Kisa, Kristopher J Krohn, Chanda Kulkarni, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Mark T Mackay, Marek Majdan, Azeem Majeed, Treh Manhertz, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Tesfa Mekonen, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Getnet Mengistu, Shafiu Mohammed, Mohsen Naghavi, Ali H. Mokdad, Ghulam Mustafa, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Long Hoang Nguyen, Molly R Nixon, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Michael Phillips, Gabriel David Pinilla-Monsalve, Mostafa Qorbani, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Nickolas Reinig, Perminder S. Sachdev, Hosein Safari, Saeed Safari, Saeid Safiri, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Abdallah M. Samy, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Monika Sawhney, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehdi Sharif, Gagandeep Singh, Mari Smith, Cassandra Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Omar Temsah, Miguel Tortajada-Girbés, Bach Xuan Tran, Amanuel Amanuel Tesfay Tsegay, Irfan Ullah, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Ronny Westerman, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Ebrahim M Yimer, Naohiro Yonemoto, Valery L. Feigin, Theo Vos, Christopher J L Murray 
TL;DR: Despite the decrease in the disease burden from 1990 to 2016, epilepsy is still an important cause of disability and mortality, and was similar among SDI quintiles.
Abstract: Summary Background Seizures and their consequences contribute to the burden of epilepsy because they can cause health loss (premature mortality and residual disability). Data on the burden of epilepsy are needed for health-care planning and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to quantify health loss due to epilepsy by age, sex, year, and location using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. Methods We assessed the burden of epilepsy in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Burden was measured as deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; a summary measure of health loss defined by the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] for premature mortality and years lived with disability), by age, sex, year, location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility). Vital registrations and verbal autopsies provided information about deaths, and data on the prevalence and severity of epilepsy largely came from population representative surveys. All estimates were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings In 2016, there were 45·9 million (95% UI 39·9–54·6) patients with all-active epilepsy (both idiopathic and secondary epilepsy globally; age-standardised prevalence 621·5 per 100 000 population; 540·1–737·0). Of these patients, 24·0 million (20·4–27·7) had active idiopathic epilepsy (prevalence 326·7 per 100 000 population; 278·4–378·1). Prevalence of active epilepsy increased with age, with peaks at 5–9 years (374·8 [280·1–490·0]) and at older than 80 years of age (545·1 [444·2–652·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of active idiopathic epilepsy was 329·3 per 100 000 population (280·3–381·2) in men and 318·9 per 100 000 population (271·1–369·4) in women, and was similar among SDI quintiles. Global age-standardised mortality rates of idiopathic epilepsy were 1·74 per 100 000 population (1·64–1·87; 1·40 per 100 000 population [1·23–1·54] for women and 2·09 per 100 000 population [1·96–2·25] for men). Age-standardised DALYs were 182·6 per 100 000 population (149·0–223·5; 163·6 per 100 000 population [130·6–204·3] for women and 201·2 per 100 000 population [166·9–241·4] for men). The higher DALY rates in men were due to higher YLL rates compared with women. Between 1990 and 2016, there was a non-significant 6·0% (−4·0 to 16·7) change in the age-standardised prevalence of idiopathic epilepsy, but a significant decrease in age-standardised mortality rates (24·5% [10·8 to 31·8]) and age-standardised DALY rates (19·4% [9·0 to 27·6]). A third of the difference in age-standardised DALY rates between low and high SDI quintile countries was due to the greater severity of epilepsy in low-income settings, and two-thirds were due to a higher YLL rate in low SDI countries. Interpretation Despite the decrease in the disease burden from 1990 to 2016, epilepsy is still an important cause of disability and mortality. Standardised collection of data on epilepsy in population representative surveys will strengthen the estimates, particularly in countries for which we currently have no or sparse data and if additional data is collected on severity, causes, and treatment. Sizeable gains in reducing the burden of epilepsy might be expected from improved access to existing treatments in low-income countries and from the development of new effective drugs worldwide. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

457 citations


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TL;DR: A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination, and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake.
Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

52,293 citations

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TL;DR: A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.
Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

23,203 citations

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TL;DR: The results for 20 world regions are presented, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers, and striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.
Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 cancers in 2008 have been prepared for 182 countries as part of the GLOBOCAN series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In this article, we present the results for 20 world regions, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers. Overall, an estimated 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occur in 2008, with 56% of new cancer cases and 63% of the cancer deaths occurring in the less developed regions of the world. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide are lung (1.61 million, 12.7% of the total), breast (1.38 million, 10.9%) and colorectal cancers (1.23 million, 9.7%). The most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.38 million, 18.2% of the total), stomach cancer (738,000 deaths, 9.7%) and liver cancer (696,000 deaths, 9.2%). Cancer is neither rare anywhere in the world, nor mainly confined to high-resource countries. Striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.

21,040 citations

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TL;DR: It is recommended that spirometry is required for the clinical diagnosis of COPD to avoid misdiagnosis and to ensure proper evaluation of severity of airflow limitation.
Abstract: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health problem. It is the fourth leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in the United States, and is projected to rank fifth in 2020 in burden of disease worldwide, according to a study published by the World Bank/World Health Organization. Yet, COPD remains relatively unknown or ignored by the public as well as public health and government officials. In 1998, in an effort to bring more attention to COPD, its management, and its prevention, a committed group of scientists encouraged the U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the World Health Organization to form the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). Among the important objectives of GOLD are to increase awareness of COPD and to help the millions of people who suffer from this disease and die prematurely of it or its complications. The first step in the GOLD program was to prepare a consensus report, Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, published in 2001. The present, newly revised document follows the same format as the original consensus report, but has been updated to reflect the many publications on COPD that have appeared. GOLD national leaders, a network of international experts, have initiated investigations of the causes and prevalence of COPD in their countries, and developed innovative approaches for the dissemination and implementation of COPD management guidelines. We appreciate the enormous amount of work the GOLD national leaders have done on behalf of their patients with COPD. Despite the achievements in the 5 years since the GOLD report was originally published, considerable additional work is ahead of us if we are to control this major public health problem. The GOLD initiative will continue to bring COPD to the attention of governments, public health officials, health care workers, and the general public, but a concerted effort by all involved in health care will be necessary.

17,023 citations

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TL;DR: Findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant, and given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.

16,648 citations