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Christopher J L Murray

Bio: Christopher J L Murray is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 209, co-authored 754 publications receiving 310329 citations. Previous affiliations of Christopher J L Murray include Harvard University & University of Washington.


Papers
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TL;DR: The increasing contribution of these diseases to the overall disease burden across India and the high rate of health loss from them, especially in the less developed low ETL states, highlights the need for focused policy interventions to address this significant cause of disease burden.

217 citations

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TL;DR: An integrated conceptual framework for monitoring and analyzing the delivery of high-quality interventions to those who need them is developed and the probability that individuals will receive health gain from an intervention if they need it is proposed.

217 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Joseph L Dieleman, Madeline Campbell, Abigail Chapin, Erika Eldrenkamp, Victoria Y. Fan, Annie Haakenstad, Jennifer Kates, Yingying Liu, Taylor Matyasz, Angela E Micah, Alex Reynolds, Nafis Sadat, Matthew T. Schneider, Reed J D Sorensen, Tim S. Evans, David M. Evans, Christoph Kurowski, Ajay Tandon, Kaja Abbas, Semaw Ferede Abera, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Kedir Y. Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Khurshid Alam1, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Ala'a Alkerwi, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Stephen M. Amrock, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Ashish Awasthi, Aleksandra Barac, Oscar Bernal, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Charles Birungi, Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ruben Castro, Ferran Catalia-Lopez, Koustuv Dalal, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Pieter de Jager, Samath D Dharmaratne, Manisha Dubey, Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha, André Faro, Andrea B. Feigl, Florian Fischer, Joseph R Fitchett, Nataliya Foigt, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Rashmi Gupta, Samer Hamidi, Hilda L Harb, Simon I. Hay, Delia Hendrie, Masako Horino, Mikk Jürisson, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Mehdi Javanbakht, Denny John, Jost B. Jonas, Seyed M Karimi, Young-Ho Khang, Jagdish Khubchandani, Yun Jin Kim, Jonas Minet Kinge, Kristopher J Krohn, G Anil Kumar, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Felix Masiye, Toni Meier, Atte Meretoja, Ted R. Miller, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Shafiu Mohammed, Vinay Nangia, Stefano Olgiati, Abdalla Sidahmed Osman, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Tejas Patel, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, David M. Pereira, Julian Perelman, Suzanne Polinder, Anwar Rafay, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Usha Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Hirbo Shore Roba, Joseph Salama, Miloje Savic, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Mark G. Shrime, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Braden Te Ao, Fabrizio Tediosi, Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema, Alan J Thomson, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Roman Topor-Madry, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Tommi Vasankari, Francesco Saverio Violante, Andrea Werdecker, Tissa Wijeratne, Gelin Xu, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z. Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Christopher J L Murray 
TL;DR: Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance.

214 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There was an overall decrease of 57% in the rate of death from malaria across sub-Saharan Africa over the past 15 years and several countries in which high rates of death were associated with low coverage of antimalarial treatment and prevention programs were identified.
Abstract: BackgroundMalaria control has not been routinely informed by the assessment of subnational variation in malaria deaths. We combined data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate malaria mortality across sub-Saharan Africa on a grid of 5 km2 from 1990 through 2015. MethodsWe estimated malaria mortality using a spatiotemporal modeling framework of geolocated data (i.e., with known latitude and longitude) on the clinical incidence of malaria, coverage of antimalarial drug treatment, case fatality rate, and population distribution according to age. ResultsAcross sub-Saharan Africa during the past 15 years, we estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% (95% uncertainty interval, 46 to 65) in the rate of malaria deaths, from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval, 8.3 to 17.0) per 10,000 population in 2000 to 5.4 (95% uncertainty interval, 3.4 to 7.9) in 2015. This led to an overall decrease of 37% (95% uncertainty interval, 36 to 39) in the number of malaria deaths ann...

214 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Valery L. Feigin1, Valery L. Feigin2, Theo Vos1, Theo Vos3, Fares Alahdab4, Arianna Maever L. Amit5, Arianna Maever L. Amit6, Till Bärnighausen7, Till Bärnighausen8, Ettore Beghi9, Mahya Beheshti10, Prachi Chavan11, Michael H. Criqui12, Rupak Desai13, Samath D Dharmaratne3, Samath D Dharmaratne14, Samath D Dharmaratne1, E. Ray Dorsey15, Arielle Wilder Eagan7, Arielle Wilder Eagan16, Islam Y. Elgendy7, Irina Filip17, Irina Filip18, Simona Giampaoli19, Giorgia Giussani9, Nima Hafezi-Nejad20, Nima Hafezi-Nejad6, Michael K. Hole21, Takayoshi Ikeda2, Catherine O. Johnson1, Rizwan Kalani3, Khaled Khatab22, Khaled Khatab23, Jagdish Khubchandani24, Daniel Kim25, Walter J. Koroshetz, Vijay Krishnamoorthy3, Vijay Krishnamoorthy26, Rita Krishnamurthi2, Xuefeng Liu27, Warren D. Lo28, Warren D. Lo29, Giancarlo Logroscino30, George A. Mensah31, George A. Mensah32, Ted R. Miller33, Ted R. Miller34, Salahuddin Mohammed35, Salahuddin Mohammed36, Ali H. Mokdad1, Ali H. Mokdad3, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh37, Shane D. Morrison27, Veeresh Kumar N. Shivamurthy38, Mohsen Naghavi1, Mohsen Naghavi3, Emma Nichols1, Bo Norrving39, Christopher M Odell1, Elisabetta Pupillo9, Amir Radfar40, Gregory A. Roth1, Gregory A. Roth3, Azadeh Shafieesabet41, Aziz Sheikh7, Aziz Sheikh42, Sara Sheikhbahaei6, Jae Il Shin43, Jasvinder A. Singh44, Jasvinder A. Singh45, Timothy J. Steiner46, Timothy J. Steiner47, Lars Jacob Stovner47, Mitchell T. Wallin48, Mitchell T. Wallin49, Jordan Weiss50, Chenkai Wu26, Joseph R. Zunt3, Jaimie D. Adelson1, Christopher J L Murray3, Christopher J L Murray1 
TL;DR: A large and increasing number of people have various neurological disorders in the US, with significant variation in the burden of and trends in neurological disorders across the US states, and the reasons for these geographic variations need to be explored further.
Abstract: IMPORTANCE Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. OBJECTIVE To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. EXPOSURES Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. RESULTS The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (−29.1% [95% UI, −32.4% to −25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (−38.5% [95% UI, −43.1% to −34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (−44.8% [95% UI, −47.3% to −42.3%]), deaths (−64.4% [95% UI, −67.7% to −50.3%]), and DALYs (−66.9% [95% UI, −70.1% to −55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (−25.8% [95% UI, −30.7% to −5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.

212 citations


Cited by
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TL;DR: A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination, and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake.
Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

52,293 citations

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TL;DR: A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.
Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

23,203 citations

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TL;DR: The results for 20 world regions are presented, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers, and striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.
Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 cancers in 2008 have been prepared for 182 countries as part of the GLOBOCAN series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In this article, we present the results for 20 world regions, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers. Overall, an estimated 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occur in 2008, with 56% of new cancer cases and 63% of the cancer deaths occurring in the less developed regions of the world. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide are lung (1.61 million, 12.7% of the total), breast (1.38 million, 10.9%) and colorectal cancers (1.23 million, 9.7%). The most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.38 million, 18.2% of the total), stomach cancer (738,000 deaths, 9.7%) and liver cancer (696,000 deaths, 9.2%). Cancer is neither rare anywhere in the world, nor mainly confined to high-resource countries. Striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.

21,040 citations

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TL;DR: It is recommended that spirometry is required for the clinical diagnosis of COPD to avoid misdiagnosis and to ensure proper evaluation of severity of airflow limitation.
Abstract: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health problem. It is the fourth leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in the United States, and is projected to rank fifth in 2020 in burden of disease worldwide, according to a study published by the World Bank/World Health Organization. Yet, COPD remains relatively unknown or ignored by the public as well as public health and government officials. In 1998, in an effort to bring more attention to COPD, its management, and its prevention, a committed group of scientists encouraged the U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the World Health Organization to form the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). Among the important objectives of GOLD are to increase awareness of COPD and to help the millions of people who suffer from this disease and die prematurely of it or its complications. The first step in the GOLD program was to prepare a consensus report, Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, published in 2001. The present, newly revised document follows the same format as the original consensus report, but has been updated to reflect the many publications on COPD that have appeared. GOLD national leaders, a network of international experts, have initiated investigations of the causes and prevalence of COPD in their countries, and developed innovative approaches for the dissemination and implementation of COPD management guidelines. We appreciate the enormous amount of work the GOLD national leaders have done on behalf of their patients with COPD. Despite the achievements in the 5 years since the GOLD report was originally published, considerable additional work is ahead of us if we are to control this major public health problem. The GOLD initiative will continue to bring COPD to the attention of governments, public health officials, health care workers, and the general public, but a concerted effort by all involved in health care will be necessary.

17,023 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant, and given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.

16,648 citations