Christopher J L Murray

Bio: Christopher J L Murray is an academic researcher from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Mortality rate. The author has an hindex of 209, co-authored 754 publications receiving 310329 citations. Previous affiliations of Christopher J L Murray include Harvard University & University of Washington.

Prevention of graft-versus-host disease by selective depletion of CD6-positive T lymphocytes from donor bone marrow.

Abstract: PURPOSEAcute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) continues to be the major causes of morbidity and mortality after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT). In this study, we have evaluated the clinical effects of selective in vitro T-cell depletion of donor allogeneic bone marrow by using a single monoclonal antibody ([MoAb] anti-T12, CD6) and rabbit complement. This antibody recognizes mature T cells, but not other cellular elements such as natural-killer (NK) cells, B cells, and myeloid precursors.PATIENTS AND METHODSFrom August 1983 to April 1991, 112 consecutive adult patients with hematologic malignancies underwent BMT with bone marrow from HLA-identical sibling donors. Marrow was harvested and depleted of mature T lymphocytes ex vivo by the use of three rounds of incubation with an anti-T12 antibody and rabbit complement. The preparative regimen consisted of cyclophosphamide and fractionated total body irradiation (TBI) in 108 patients. No patients received prophylactic immune suppress...

Setting international standards for verbal autopsy

Abstract: In many countries most deaths occur at home. Such countries often have civil registration systems that are limited or non-existent and therefore most deaths go unrecorded. Countries that cannot record the number of people who die or why they die cannot realize the full potential of their health systems. Health systems need reliable numbers and causes of death to function properly. But in these circumstances – in the absence of a complete picture of the population’s health – there are tools and techniques that can be used to obtain a fairly accurate representation of mortality trends. It takes a long time for countries to achieve a fully functioning civil registration system with medical certification of cause of death. In the meantime, more and more countries are using verbal autopsies (VA) to meet the information needs of their health systems.1 Verbal autopsy is a method of ascertaining probable causes of a death based on an interview with primary caregivers about the signs, symptoms and circumstances preceding that death. Different institutions have been researching and developing all aspects of the verbal autopsy process over the past two decades. We have also been working on this process, particularly to improve the questionnaire and the methods of analysing the resulting information. However, this has been a largely uncoordinated effort and one that has not reached consensus on what to cover in the interview and how to analyse the results, despite previous attempts to promote standard tools.2–4 The main consequence of this failure to agree on a standard approach is that now we cannot compare results from different countries. Currently, 36 Demographic Surveillance Sites (DSS) in 20 countries, the Sample Registration System (SRS) sites in India, and the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) in China regularly use VA on a large scale, primarily to assess the causes-of-death structure of a defined population.1 Despite such a widespread use of verbal autopsy, we are unable to assess how consistent and reliable the data are. We are also unable to replicate procedures used to assign cause of death. Because verbal autopsy data sets are not widely shared, it is impossible to independently assess the quality of the assignment. Really useful validation studies are rare and verbal autopsy research is often done on small and non-representative samples of the population. The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) have put pressure on countries to track their progress in terms of population health. But to track that progress, countries need reliable numbers. In other words, they need a strong empirical basis for cause-specific mortality data. This is essential for evaluating the impact of disease control programmes and major global health initiatives. One way of dealing with incomplete information is to use models of mortality patterns. But cause-of-death information predicted by such models is not suitable for monitoring progress on what works and what does not.5 That leaves verbal autopsy as the only practical option in these countries and one that will play a key role in tracking progress towards the MDGs. Agreement on a core set of verbal autopsy tools (including technical standards and guidelines for their use) and their widespread adoption is needed now. To tackle this challenge, WHO led an expert group of researchers, data users, and other stakeholders, with sponsorship from the Health Metrics Network (HMN), in developing the necessary standards. The expert group systematically reviewed, debated, and condensed the accumulated experience and evidence from the most widely-used and validated procedures. This synthesis was done to achieve a high degree of consistency and comparability across verbal autopsy data sets. WHO has now published the results of this collaboration as: Verbal autopsy standards: ascertaining and attributing cause of death. The new standards include: Verbal autopsy questionnaires for three age groups (under four weeks; four weeks to 14 years; and 15 years and above); Cause-of-death certification and coding resources consistent with the International Classification of Diseases and Related health Problems, tenth revision (ICD-10); and A cause-of-death list for verbal autopsy prepared according to the ICD-10. The content is freely available on the WHO web site (www.who.int) and will be distributed in print; and incorporated into HMN’s resource kit. This is an important publication, but it is not the last word on verbal autopsy methods. Research is needed to validate these standard core procedures in several countries with different patterns of mortality. Other areas of research include further development of items included in questionnaires, and automated methods for assigning causes of death from verbal autopsy that remove human bias, while producing replicable and valid results.6 Operational issues need addressing: sampling methods and size when using verbal autopsy tools in research demographic surveillance sites; sample or sentinel registration; censuses; and household surveys. Research is also required when adapting these questionnaires to specific situations in different countries, taking into account relevant cultural, epidemiological and administrative considerations. WHO is working with partners to do this research and develop guidelines on these issues. With time, this guidance and experience will better inform the users of verbal autopsy, and improve the comparability and consistency of its results. For the present, we urge that these new international consensus standards become the foundation of verbal autopsy practices wherever possible. ■

Trends and Cardiovascular Mortality Effects of State-Level Blood Pressure and Uncontrolled Hypertension in the United States

Abstract: Background— Blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality and has lifestyle and healthcare determinants that vary across states. Only self-reported hypertension status is measured at the state level in the United States. Our aim was to estimate levels and trends in state-level mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), the prevalence of uncontrolled systolic hypertension, and cardiovascular mortality attributable to all levels of higher-than-optimal SBP. Methods and Results— We estimated the relationship between actual SBP/uncontrolled hypertension and self-reported hypertension, use of blood pressure medication, and a set of health system and sociodemographic variables in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We applied this relationship to identical variables from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate state-specific mean SBP and uncontrolled hypertension. We used the comparative risk assessment methods to estim...

Global cancer statistics

Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

Global cancer statistics, 2012

Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.

Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008.

Abstract: Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 cancers in 2008 have been prepared for 182 countries as part of the GLOBOCAN series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In this article, we present the results for 20 world regions, summarizing the global patterns for the eight most common cancers. Overall, an estimated 12.7 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths occur in 2008, with 56% of new cancer cases and 63% of the cancer deaths occurring in the less developed regions of the world. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide are lung (1.61 million, 12.7% of the total), breast (1.38 million, 10.9%) and colorectal cancers (1.23 million, 9.7%). The most common causes of cancer death are lung cancer (1.38 million, 18.2% of the total), stomach cancer (738,000 deaths, 9.7%) and liver cancer (696,000 deaths, 9.2%). Cancer is neither rare anywhere in the world, nor mainly confined to high-resource countries. Striking differences in the patterns of cancer from region to region are observed.

Global strategy for the diagnosis, management, and prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: GOLD executive summary.

Abstract: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health problem. It is the fourth leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in the United States, and is projected to rank fifth in 2020 in burden of disease worldwide, according to a study published by the World Bank/World Health Organization. Yet, COPD remains relatively unknown or ignored by the public as well as public health and government officials. In 1998, in an effort to bring more attention to COPD, its management, and its prevention, a committed group of scientists encouraged the U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the World Health Organization to form the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). Among the important objectives of GOLD are to increase awareness of COPD and to help the millions of people who suffer from this disease and die prematurely of it or its complications. The first step in the GOLD program was to prepare a consensus report, Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, published in 2001. The present, newly revised document follows the same format as the original consensus report, but has been updated to reflect the many publications on COPD that have appeared. GOLD national leaders, a network of international experts, have initiated investigations of the causes and prevalence of COPD in their countries, and developed innovative approaches for the dissemination and implementation of COPD management guidelines. We appreciate the enormous amount of work the GOLD national leaders have done on behalf of their patients with COPD. Despite the achievements in the 5 years since the GOLD report was originally published, considerable additional work is ahead of us if we are to control this major public health problem. The GOLD initiative will continue to bring COPD to the attention of governments, public health officials, health care workers, and the general public, but a concerted effort by all involved in health care will be necessary.

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.