Christopher T. Franck

Bio: Christopher T. Franck is an academic researcher from Virginia Tech. The author has contributed to research in topics: Bayesian inference & Discounting. The author has an hindex of 21, co-authored 58 publications receiving 1557 citations. Previous affiliations of Christopher T. Franck include Virginia Bioinformatics Institute.

A modified exponential behavioral economic demand model to better describe consumption data.

Abstract: Behavioral economic demand analyses that quantify the relationship between the consumption of a commodity and its price have proven useful in studying the reinforcing efficacy of many commodities, including drugs of abuse. An exponential equation proposed by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) has proven useful in quantifying the dissociable components of demand intensity and demand elasticity, but is limited as an analysis technique by the inability to correctly analyze consumption values of zero. We examined an exponentiated version of this equation that retains all the beneficial features of the original Hursh and Silberberg equation, but can accommodate consumption values of zero and improves its fit to the data. In Experiment 1, we compared the modified equation with the unmodified equation under different treatments of zero values in cigarette consumption data collected online from 272 participants. We found that the unmodified equation produces different results depending on how zeros are treated, while the exponentiated version incorporates zeros into the analysis, accounts for more variance, and is better able to estimate actual unconstrained consumption as reported by participants. In Experiment 2, we simulated 1,000 datasets with demand parameters known a priori and compared the equation fits. Results indicated that the exponentiated equation was better able to replicate the true values from which the test data were simulated. We conclude that an exponentiated version of the Hursh and Silberberg equation provides better fits to the data, is able to fit all consumption values including zero, and more accurately produces true parameter values.

Accurate human microsatellite genotypes from high-throughput resequencing data using informed error profiles

Abstract: Repetitive sequences are biologically and clinically important because they can influence traits and disease, but repeats are challenging to analyse using short-read sequencing technology. We present a tool for genotyping microsatellite repeats called RepeatSeq, which uses Bayesian model selection guided by an empirically derived error model that incorporates sequence and read properties. Next, we apply RepeatSeq to high-coverage genomes from the 1000 Genomes Project to evaluate performance and accuracy. The software uses common formats, such as VCF, for compatibility with existing genome analysis pipelines. Source code and binaries are available at http://github.com/adaptivegenome/repeatseq.

Development and Validation of a Bariatric Surgery Morbidity Risk Calculator Using the Prospective, Multicenter NSQIP Dataset

Abstract: Background Although a risk score estimating postoperative mortality for patients undergoing gastric bypass exists, there is none predicting postoperative morbidity. Our objective was to develop a validated risk calculator for 30-day postoperative morbidity of bariatric surgery patients. Study Design We used the American College of Surgeons' 2007 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) dataset. Patients undergoing bariatric surgery for morbid obesity were studied. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed and a risk calculator was created. The 2008 NSQIP dataset was used for its validation. Results In 11,023 patients, mean age was 44.6 years, 20% were male, 77% were Caucasian, and mean body mass index (BMI; calculated as kg/m 2 ) was 48.9. Thirty-day morbidity and mortality were 4.2% and 0.2%, respectively. Risk factors associated with increased risk of postoperative morbidity included recent MI/angina (odds ratio [OR] = 3.65; 95% CI 1.23 to 10.8), dependent functional status (OR = 3.48; 95% CI 1.78 to −6.80), stroke (OR = 2.89; 95% CI 1.09 to 7.67), bleeding disorder (OR = 2.23; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.38), hypertension (OR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.63), BMI, and type of bariatric surgery. Patients with BMI 35 to 60 had significantly higher adjusted OR compared with patients with BMI of 45 to 60 (p Conclusions NSQIP data can be used to develop and validate a risk calculator that predicts postoperative morbidity after various bariatric procedures. The risk calculator is anticipated to aid in surgical decision making, informed patient consent, and risk reduction.

Accurate characterization of delay discounting: a multiple model approach using approximate Bayesian model selection and a unified discounting measure.

Abstract: The study of delay discounting, or valuation of future rewards as a function of delay, has contributed to understanding the behavioral economics of addiction. Accurate characterization of discounting can be furthered by statistical model selection given that many functions have been proposed to measure future valuation of rewards. The present study provides a convenient Bayesian model selection algorithm that selects the most probable discounting model among a set of candidate models chosen by the researcher. The approach assigns the most probable model for each individual subject. Importantly, effective delay 50 (ED50) functions as a suitable unifying measure that is computable for and comparable between a number of popular functions, including both one- and two-parameter models. The combined model selection/ED50 approach is illustrated using empirical discounting data collected from a sample of 111 undergraduate students with models proposed by Laibson (1997); Mazur (1987); Myerson & Green (1995); Rachlin (2006); and Samuelson (1937). Computer simulation suggests that the proposed Bayesian model selection approach outperforms the single model approach when data truly arise from multiple models. When a single model underlies all participant data, the simulation suggests that the proposed approach fares no worse than the single model approach.

Thinking fast and slow.

Abstract: In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

Abstract: NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Development and Evaluation of the Universal ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator: A Decision Aid and Informed Consent Tool for Patients and Surgeons

Abstract: Background Accurately estimating surgical risks is critical for shared decision making and informed consent. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services may soon put forth a measure requiring surgeons to provide patients with patient-specific, empirically derived estimates of postoperative complications. Our objectives were to develop a universal surgical risk estimation tool, to compare performance of the universal vs previous procedure-specific surgical risk calculators, and to allow surgeons to empirically adjust the estimates of risk. Study Design Using standardized clinical data from 393 ACS NSQIP hospitals, a web-based tool was developed to allow surgeons to easily enter 21 preoperative factors (demographics, comorbidities, procedure). Regression models were developed to predict 8 outcomes based on the preoperative risk factors. The universal model was compared with procedure-specific models. To incorporate surgeon input, a subjective surgeon adjustment score, allowing risk estimates to vary within the estimate's confidence interval, was introduced and tested with 80 surgeons using 10 case scenarios. Results Based on 1,414,006 patients encompassing 1,557 unique CPT codes, a universal surgical risk calculator model was developed that had excellent performance for mortality (c-statistic = 0.944; Brier score = 0.011 [where scores approaching 0 are better]), morbidity (c-statistic = 0.816, Brier score = 0.069), and 6 additional complications (c-statistics > 0.8). Predictions were similarly robust for the universal calculator vs procedure-specific calculators (eg, colorectal). Surgeons demonstrated considerable agreement on the case scenario scoring (80% to 100% agreement), suggesting reliable score assignment between surgeons. Conclusions The ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator is a decision-support tool based on reliable multi-institutional clinical data, which can be used to estimate the risks of most operations. The ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator will allow clinicians and patients to make decisions using empirically derived, patient-specific postoperative risks.